2K24: Cleveland Guardians

[onejayhawk]

Emmanuel Clase, the "prize" of the Corey Kluber trade, is out 8-to-12 weeks with an upper back strain.

Given that they traded Kluber for Clase and a dozen donuts, it would seem pretty the Indians are very committed to Clse. Do they see him as another Mariano Rivera, or is it more like Dellin Betances?

J

[Ken]

Given that they traded Kluber for Clase and a dozen donuts, it would seem pretty the Indians are very committed to Clse. Do they see him as another Mariano Rivera, or is it more like Dellin Betances?

J

Not sure if serious. Do the Indians view Clase as another *best closer in history* ?

[chancellor]

Not sure if serious. Do the Indians view Clase as another *best closer in history* ?

My answer would be "in between". I suspect they saw Clase as Brad Hand's replacement, and the only question is whether that's this year or next or 2022. If I remember right, Hand is signed through 2021, but does not have no-trade protection.

[Ken]

My answer would be "in between". I suspect they saw Clase as Brad Hand's replacement, and the only question is whether that's this year or next or 2022.

Honestly Dellin Betances was probably still a pipedream though right? He never got a sustained opportunity to close, but Betances' talent has always been elite. His K/9 ranged between 13.5 and 15.5 every single year. Clase was never able to strike out more than 10.5 in the minors. He has better control than Betances, but the reality is that he doesn't have close to the arm talent.

So the right answer was, no, neither, he's not as talented of a pitcher as either guy.

Now, would he eventually have an opportunity to close? Possibly. But then again there have been some pretty bad pitchers who have had opportunities to close.

[chancellor]

Honestly Dellin Betances was probably still a pipedream though right? He never got a sustained opportunity to close, but Betances' talent has always been elite. His K/9 ranged between 13.5 and 15.5 every single year. Clase was never able to strike out more than 10.5 in the minors. He has better control than Betances, but the reality is that he doesn't have close to the arm talent.

So the right answer was, no, neither, he's not as talented of a pitcher as either guy.

Certainly agree on Rivera. Not so sure I agree on Betances. His K/9 was higher - but not hugely so - than Clase's in the minors. Betances didn't turn into the 14+ K/9 beast that he is until about year 2 in the majors, and he was older than Clase. As you've noted, Clase's control is much better. I can see Clase easily ramping up to higher K/9 numbers as he learns how to harness his pretty awesome stuff at the ML level. And he'll do it with significantly better control than Betances.

[Ken]

Certainly agree on Rivera. Not so sure I agree on Betances. His K/9 was higher - but not hugely so - than Clase's in the minors. Betances didn't turn into the 14+ K/9 beast that he is until about year 2 in the majors, and he was older than Clase. As you've noted, Clase's control is much better. I can see Clase easily ramping up to higher K/9 numbers as he learns how to harness his pretty awesome stuff at the ML level. And he'll do it with significantly better control than Betances.

I feel like you are missing the fact that Betances was a starter in the minors. His K/9 exploded b/c he went to the pen which typically has that kind of effect (although Betances again was elite in that regard, so more extreme than typical).

When looking at Clase, remember, he was a reliever in the minors. So there's not a jump to be expected by moving to the pen. He's already there.

[chancellor]

I feel like you are missing the fact that Betances was a starter in the minors. His K/9 exploded b/c he went to the pen which typically has that kind of effect (although Betances again was elite in that regard, so more extreme than typical).

He went to the pen in AAA ball, with only six starts and 32 relief appearances. He went from about 11.6 K/9 his final year in the minors to 13.5 K/9 his first year in the majors, 14 K/9 his second year, followed by three consecutive years of 15+ K/9.

Clase is 21, throws high 90s consistently with cutter-like action, and has a credible slider. I see no reason he can't follow a similar growth curve to Betances when he was in the pen. Maybe he doesn't top out at 15+ K/9, but I'd much rather have 13 K/9 and Clase's superior control. But arm talent? Yeah, Clase has plenty.

To OneJs's earlier question, I suspect given that Clase is throwing what appears to be 98-99 MPH cutters is what led to the Rivera comparison. Comparing any 21 year old to Rivera is a fools errand IMO, but I can see where it comes from at least. But to Clase potentially being a premier closer; yeah, I can absolutely see that.

[Ken]

He went to the pen in AAA ball, with only six starts and 32 relief appearances. He went from about 11.6 K/9 his final year in the minors to 13.5 K/9 his first year in the majors, 14 K/9 his second year, followed by three consecutive years of 15+ K/9.

I'm not sure what you are trying to argue at this point. It seems very obvious looking at Betances' strikeout numbers (like any pitcher who moves from being a starter to being a reliever) that his dramatic increase in Ks was a function of learning how to pitch out of the pen vs starting. He went from 8.5 K/9 in 2012 as a full time starter in the minors, to 11.6 K/9 as *mostly* a reliever to 13.5 K/9 in mlb as a full time reliever. It seems obvious that the transition to the pen is what allowed him to reach that potential.

The difference with Clase is that there's no transition to the pen coming. He has been a reliever in the minors. So using a Betances comp won't really work at all.

Clase is 21, throws high 90s consistently with cutter-like action, and has a credible slider. I see no reason he can't follow a similar growth curve to Betances when he was in the pen. Maybe he doesn't top out at 15+ K/9, but I'd much rather have 13 K/9 and Clase's superior control. But arm talent? Yeah, Clase has plenty.

I think 11-12 K/9 is probably the max at this point. Right now he just has the one plus pitch (fb) with the slider being average.

To OneJs's earlier question, I suspect given that Clase is throwing what appears to be 98-99 MPH cutters is what led to the Rivera comparison. Comparing any 21 year old to Rivera is a fools errand IMO, but I can see where it comes from at least. But to Clase potentially being a premier closer; yeah, I can absolutely see that.

It's possible but likely pretty far at the upper end of projections to reach.

[Pauly]

What does the ‘pen think of Mercado? His projections arent as good as I would have expected... but speed aint cheap. I have the mercado owner on the hook for a potential straight up keeper swap of wheeler 10 for mercado 4. He doesnt need the speed. Cant decide if id rather 20 sb or 200 k

[Sour Masher]

What does the ‘pen think of Mercado? His projections arent as good as I would have expected... but speed aint cheap. I have the mercado owner on the hook for a potential straight up keeper swap of wheeler 10 for mercado 4. He doesnt need the speed. Cant decide if id rather 20 sb or 200 k

I think Mercado regresses on power, but the speed is legit. If you need speed and have the pitching to spare, i'd take mercado and 6 bucks. I think Mercado is a better bet for 20 sbs than Wheeler is for 200ks. Not sure how the new park and team effect him. Not saying I don't like him, and I think it is a fair swap. But I'd take the Mercado side.

[joncarlos]

What does the ‘pen think of Mercado? His projections arent as good as I would have expected... but speed aint cheap. I have the mercado owner on the hook for a potential straight up keeper swap of wheeler 10 for mercado 4. He doesnt need the speed. Cant decide if id rather 20 sb or 200 k

Kenny Lofton might be the Indians' 2nd best option in CF. I agree that Mercado's bat may not be special but he can run and he will play, and it's not like he's a zero with the bat.

Wheeler will be in a tougher park but he'll have a good catcher and not the Mets' defense behind him. I think he could be really good. If you have another way to get speed I might lean Wheeler.

[Sour Masher]

So, what do folks think we will see from Carrasco this year? I looked up chronic myeloid leukemia, and it isn't going to go away. It can be put in remission with medication, and the fact Carrasco is young and fit helps a lot. But it is there, and I do not know what the drugs or treatments do to him or if he is in remission. Not a lot of concrete stuff out there, and his hip injury is delaying us seeing what he looks like on the mound. Still, if he gets back to form, he could be a real bargain, although his ADP is higher than I would have thought, given the variables in play.

[chancellor]

So, what do folks think we will see from Carrasco this year? I looked up chronic myeloid leukemia, and it isn't going to go away. It can be put in remission with medication, and the fact Carrasco is young and fit helps a lot. But it is there, and I do not know what the drugs or treatments do to him or if he is in remission. Not a lot of concrete stuff out there, and his hip injury is delaying us seeing what he looks like on the mound. Still, if he gets back to form, he could be a real bargain, although his ADP is higher than I would have thought, given the variables in play.

I've ticked him down a little, but not a lot. Key challenge with any chronic blood cancer is recovery time, so I think the Indians will work hard to keep him on as fixed of a schedule as possible and limit his pitch counts more than in the past. Main concern for me is if he gets any kind of injury - his recovery time will be longer than average, and possibly much longer.

[TranaGreg]

Mercado leaves the game today after diving for a ball & twisting his wrist backwards ...

[madducks]

Mercado leaves the game today after diving for a ball & twisting his wrist backwards ...

Diagnosed as a sprained wrist. He's considered day-to-day, but will be re-evaluated on Friday morning.