2K24: Los Angeles Dodgers

[Gregg]

This from the Edge:

JULIO URIAS
SP, LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Julio Urias pitched three perfect innings in his second Cactus League outing Monday against the White Sox.
It was a nine-up, nine-down affair for the 24-year-old left-hander, who was only scheduled to go two innings but made it through three frames on a total of just 26 pitches. Urias registered a combined 2.65 ERA and 74/22 K/BB ratio in 78 innings last year between the regular season and postseason, and he could be ready for a full-on breakout in 2021 if the Dodgers let him become a mainstay in their starting rotation. It's notable that David Price worked one inning in relief of Urias in Monday's game versus Chicago.

[joncarlos]

I think other than Bauer, they're all going to miss some starts. Even Kershaw, though I expect if he's feeling 100% all year, he'll still get close to 30 starts. I think this just means Price gets a few less than we might have expected. Something like:

Bauer 32
Kershaw 28
Buehler 26
Urias 24
May 15
Price 15
Gonsolin 15
Someone else gets the other 7

[Big Tymer]

I know the Brewers are looking at stacking some SPs - like Burnes with Peralta potentially, and Adrian Houser with Suter. It's not decided yet, but maybe that'll be what the Dodgers do with Price and Urias, at least early in the season. Have Price go 3-5 innings, and Urias 3-4 innings.

Seems like stacking 2 lefties though is suboptimal. If you stack a LHP with a RHP then at least you force the other team to have same-handed ABs or switch out players no?

[harmon]

Seems like the piggybackers (second up) will have decent shots at wins in close games.

[Ken]

Seems like the piggybackers (second up) will have decent shots at wins in close games.

Not sure it's worth the loss in strikeouts though

[umjewman]

Is May worth keeping at $10 in a 10-team NL-only? I like the potential, but I have no idea what to expect in terms of his IP this year.

[chancellor]

Seems like stacking 2 lefties though is suboptimal. If you stack a LHP with a RHP then at least you force the other team to have same-handed ABs or switch out players no?

Valid point - just that Price's stated willingness to come out of the bullpen and/or Urias' ability to do so could lead to some combination. The Dodgers certainly have the arm depth to do that with one or two slots if they want, which would allow them to control innings early in the season and allow pitchers to build up pitch counts for the first 2-4 weeks.

[revo]

I think other than Bauer, they're all going to miss some starts. Even Kershaw, though I expect if he's feeling 100% all year, he'll still get close to 30 starts. I think this just means Price gets a few less than we might have expected. Something like:

Bauer 32
Kershaw 28
Buehler 26
Urias 24
May 15
Price 15
Gonsolin 15
Someone else gets the other 7

Yup, agreed 100%. I don't expect Buehler to pitch more than 160 and Kershaw 175, which is why as much as I love them, I won't draft them at their price level.

[Bene Futuis]

I think everyone has been whiffing on Urias if they ever thought he'd pitch anything close to a full body of work this year. And again, all pitchers will see fewer IP than normal. All of 'em. 175 IP will be a lot this year. Revo may be right about Buehler, even if for the wrong reasons.

[Ken]

And again, all pitchers will see fewer IP than normal. All of 'em. 175 IP will be a lot this year.

Lance Lynn would like to have a word, he'll meet you on the concourse. Alone.

[revo]

I think everyone has been whiffing on Urias if they ever thought he'd pitch anything close to a full body of work this year. And again, all pitchers will see fewer IP than normal. All of 'em. 175 IP will be a lot this year. Revo may be right about Buehler, even if for the wrong reasons.

I'm wondering if this will apply just to SPs, or to bullpenners as well. If it doesn't apply to middle relievers, did their value just possibly increase vs. starting pitchers?

BTW, I read today that only TWO Dodger starting pitchers have had 30+ starts in the Andrew Friedman era, which began in 2016, far and away the lowest in the majors, and only five Dodger pitchers have qualified for the ERA title during that same span. Yet their starting pitching WAR is 3rd over the same period.

[Ken]

I think everyone has been whiffing on Urias if they ever thought he'd pitch anything close to a full body of work this year. And again, all pitchers will see fewer IP than normal. All of 'em. 175 IP will be a lot this year. Revo may be right about Buehler, even if for the wrong reasons.

I dont understand the Urias helium.

1) Like you noted above, he's not going to pitch a full season of innings
2) Why does Urias get a free pass for upper 4s SIERA and xFIP?
3) I'm not convinced Urias is going to have a ton of strikeouts. 20% K% is below average

[Bene Futuis]

I'm wondering if this will apply just to SPs, or to bullpenners as well. If it doesn't apply to middle relievers, did their value just possibly increase vs. starting pitchers?

BTW, I read today that only TWO Dodger starting pitchers have had 30+ starts in the Andrew Friedman era, which began in 2016, far and away the lowest in the majors, and only five Dodger pitchers have qualified for the ERA title during that same span. Yet their starting pitching WAR is 3rd over the same period.

Their success and Tampa Bay's success with this strategy, last game of the World Series notwithstanding, has certainly not gone unnoticed by other teams. Plus the shortened 2020. Plus things have been trending that way anyways. It's a perfect storm a brewin' for very low IP this year.

[Sour Masher]

I dont understand the Urias helium.

1) Like you noted above, he's not going to pitch a full season of innings
2) Why does Urias get a free pass for upper 4s SIERA and xFIP?
3) I'm not convinced Urias is going to have a ton of strikeouts. 20% K% is below average

Because memories of what a player was as a prospect in the past and dreams of what he might be in the future cloud the present in the minds of all dreamers. Urias was once considered a generational talent and is pitching great in ST. I am out on his helium given that team make up, but I get why other fellas are chasing.

[Bene Futuis]

I dont understand the Urias helium.

1) Like you noted above, he's not going to pitch a full season of innings
2) Why does Urias get a free pass for upper 4s SIERA and xFIP?
3) I'm not convinced Urias is going to have a ton of strikeouts. 20% K% is below average

Unbelievably high ceiling. Impressive performance coming off of serious injury with no setbacks (fingers crossed). Enormous playoff performance, obvs. I mean, SIERA all you want, the kid's ERA is 3.20 for his career with almost a strikeout an inning and a stellar WHIP and he's only 24 and got into the bigs at age 20. Huge injury risk but surely you understand where the excitement is coming from. His ADP is 117 over at NFBC. I guess that's high? Seems fine, maybe a little high given his likely IP restriction. Good team, though!