2K14 - San Diego Padres

[Controller Jacobs]

Baseball Reference page
mlb depth charts
cot's contracts - team page
cot's contracts - 2014 spreadsheet
mlbtraderumors - team page
fangraphs - team page
fangraphs - park factors

prospects - rhd, with team highlighted

[Controller Jacobs]

Volquez and Richard are gone, addition by subtraction?

Seems like nothing's gone right for this team. It's as though one devout fan has committed such horrible atrocities that the entire fanbase has to suffer the resulting bad karma.

[Friarfan]

Padres 2013 roundup and look ahead to 2014

1B (2013 Recap) Yonder Alonso suffered somewhat of a lost year. In 95 games (about 25 or so which he played through the pain) he hit .281 with 6 homers and 45 RBI. If you extend his number out to a full year, however, they would be, well, pretty stinky for a first-baseman (.281/9 hr and 64 RBI). The Latos trade not looking too good so far (more on that later).

Kyle Blanks was off to a breakout-type year until injuries derailed him, as well. He’s still under control (arbitration eligible) and the team might be done with him and shop him around. I’m not sure if there will be any takers considering his injury history.

Stone hands Jesus Guzman filled in at the position but was needed more often in Left Field.

The interesting one of this group is late-season call-up Tommy Medica, who tore up double A (296/.372/.582 with 18 home runs) but struck out a tad too much (16 in 50 abs as of this writing). Lots of clamoring among Padre message boards to give Medica the shot.

1B (2014 prognostication)
The club has too much invested in Alonso (even though this group was not the one that made the Latos trade) to give up on him at this point. He’ll need to prove he can stay healthy and add a little more pop to his bat. He was supposed to have been the beneficiary of the moved in fences, but that was not the case. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and let him use his wrist as an excuse.

2B (2013 Recap)
Jedd Gyorko had an above par rookie season. Mind you, he was still learning to play a new position, so you can do with that what you want. Still, he showed well-above average power and, if not for an injury and a horrid stretch after he came back, his overall numbers would look a whole lot better. Plate discipline is a bit of an issue (only 30 walks) but he’s got a pretty bright future.

Logan Forsythe and Alexis Amarista filled in admirably in Gyorko’s brief absence, but are not every day players.

2B (2014 prognostication)Gyorko is the man here for the future depending on what happens to Headley at third. He’ll put up 25+ homers with 70 RBI and a .260ish average. On the farm, Corey Spangenberg is progressing adequately, but still needs to develop.

3B (2013 Recap)
Chase Headley certainly lost himself a lot of money this year. After failing to reach an agreement on an extension after his breakout 2012 campaign, and refusing to negotiate during the season, Headley had a very forgettable year. Both the club and Headley are in a bad spot. The Padres could have gotten a nice return on him before the year and Headley could have signed a nice deal.

3B (2014 prognostication)
As it is, the team will probably shop him around during the off-season as his FA year approaches (this is last year of arbitration). If they can’t find a taker, he’ll be motivated to put up numbers to justify that 2012 wasn’t a fluke and the team (assuming they’re out of the race by July) will trade him. If they do – and don’t get a 3B in return – they’ll move Gyorko over to his natural spot. Early word is that the team and Headley reps will be meeting this week to start long-term talks.

SS (2013 Recap)
Everth Cabrera was off to the races before the Biogenesis suspension came down. He says he took the junk back in 2011 to get over a should injury as the reason why he took the roids, so I’m assuming that he won’t see a drop-off in production when he comes back next year. If not for the abbreviated season, he would have run away (ha ha, I kill me) with the SB crown. He seemed to really be putting things together at the plate and, while still prone to the occasional (but far less frequent) fielding guffaws, is one of the league’s top shortstops (a young Furcal, IMO).

Ronny Cedeno, Logan Forsythe and Alexis Amarista filled in admirably, but Cedeno was only a stopgap signing and Forsythe and Amarista should go back to their supersub status with the regulars returning.

SS (2014 prognostication)
Cabrera is the man and will come back with a vengeance in 2014. Still, he has value on the trade market and rumors are starting to swirl (as they were before last year).

LF (2013 Recap)
Ugh! Can we just skip this position? Thinking about Carlos Quentin makes me want to go kill a drifter. After starting WWIII with Zack Greinke, Quentin managed to play in whole 62 games. It’s actually about 10 more games than I expected him to play. Still, when he played, he did produce respectable numbers (.275/13/44)

A rotating cast of Kyle Blanks, Jose Juzman, Chris Denorfia and Alexis Amarista filled in. Blanks is the only one with potential to be an everyday major league player (and even that’s a stretch due to his injuries)

LF (2014 prognostication)
The former regime had the bright idea to extend Quentin’s contract through 2015 so, unless the Pads are willing to eat some (ok, a lot) of that, he’ll be the opening day starter in LF. Once his knees give out around mid-May, the team will resort to the above to fill in. The interesting name in the minors will be Rymer Liriano, who had his entire 2013 derailed with TJ surgery. He should be fine to start 2014, but will need time at AAA and will get called up fairly soon after. Quentin’s lack of reliable health makes a glaring hole in the middle of the lineup.

CF (2013 Recap)
I’ve been a pretty staunch supporter of Cameron Maybin but he’s quickly losing his luster. After starting the year with a wrist injury, he came back briefly and looked like he was about to catch fire until a knee injury landed him back on the DL. It looked like it was only going to be a month-long thing but he had his rehab stopped and was sat down for the year.
A revolving door of Denorfia, Amarista, Will Venable and speedy prospect Raymond Fuentes filled in for the rest of the year.

CF (2014 prognostication)
Maybin is one of the Padres who the previous regime had signed to an extension. If they can find someone to take him off their hands, they’ll do it. If not, they’ll give him another shot and see if he can stay healthy and consistent at the plate. It remains to be seen if the knee injury will sap him of his two primary weapons, range in CF and stolen base potential. I’m rooting for the kid. He’s got a great attitude and is a hard worker and just needs to stay healthy and become more disciplined/consistent with the bat in his hand.

RF (2013 Recap)
The lone bright spot in the Padre lineup this year was Venable (who was named the team MVP). Heading in to the year it looked like Venable was bound to be a platoon partner with Denorfia in right due to the fact that he didn’t have a clue against lefty pitching. While not completely solved, he’s not a liability anymore and became a 20/20 player.

RF (2014 prognostication)
Venable was signed to an extension and will be their right fielder for the near future.

C (2013 Recap)
Another of the Biogenesis brothers, Yasmani Grandal started the year on suspension and when he came back didn’t do much with the bat before landing on the DL for the rest of the year with a bum knee.

Good ol’ Nick Hundley took over the duties and did what Hundley does: Provide average defense and streaky hitting. He has occasional pop but he will never top .250 as long as he lives.

C (2014 prognostication)
The organization isn’t enamored with what they’ve seen in Grandal – attitude, injury, and the PED ties. Hundley obviously isn’t the answer either. Still, one of them will be handed the job at the beginning of the year and keep it warm until Austin Hedges is ready.

SP (2013 Recap)
Well, the year started with a starting rotation of Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Jason Marquis, Eric Stults and Tyson Ross. The season ended with only Stults and Ross remaining (and that’s after Ross spent a good amount of time in the bullpen in between). Volquez was mercifully DFA’d, Richard spent the rest of the year on the DL with suckiness and Marquis (last year’s “big” FA signing) wasn’t far behind. Ross was re-inserted in the rotation after the break and showed flashes of dominance. Andrew Cashner finished the year on fire and looks like he’ll justify the Rizzo trade (and in turn the Adrian Gonzalez trade). Throw out a couple of bad outings since he came over from AZ and Ian Kennedy was a pretty darned good pickup.

SP (2014 prognostication)
Cashner will be the ace followed by Kenendy and Ross. The other two slots will be determined by the returning injury guys Robbie Erlin, Corey Luebke, Casey Kelly, Joe Weiland as well as Eric Stults (who will be the likely default if any of the above can’t come back) and Burch Smith who had an erratic debut this year after showing good stuff in the minors. Mercifully, Richard’s time in SD is done. As the lone remnant from the Peavy trade, they gave him enough rope and he’s proven he can’t be a consistent contributor. Luebke had a few setbacks in recovery last year but has since thrown off a mound and they fully expect him to be ready for the start of ST; however, his innings will be limited and will not top 150 or so (he’s never topped 140 even BEFORE the surgery). Weiland has recently thrown a few innings in the AFL, so he should be good to go.

The organization is stockpiled (yeah, I know TINSTAAPP) with young arms and it’ll be a race to see who the first to make an impact out of: Max Fried, Matt Wisler, Adys Portillo, Zach Elfin, Joe Ross and Keyvius Sampson.

RP (2013 Recap)
Once the bright spot for the Padres, the bullpen had fallen on hard times the past year. After a rough start to the year (and an annual trip to the DL) Huston Street was actually pretty great. He only gave up one run since June 23 and converted 33 of 34 opportunities.

Luke Gregerson was once again the primary 8th-inning guy and was solid if unspectacular and prone to some pretty bad implosions. Dale Thayer was the other steady presence in the pen and might lead the league in nose hairs that transition in to moustache hairs.

RP (2014 prognostication)
Street will return as the closer and will be trade bait after the break if they fall out of contention. Gregerson will be offered arbitration again and should return. A mish-mash of Thayer, Tim Stauffer, Brad Boxberger, Brad Brach, and Anthony Bass will compete for innings.

Offseason Speculation
Management has stated that they want to increase payroll to close to $80 million which would be an increase of about $15mil over last year. With the increase in payroll and not having contracts like Richard and Volquez, they’re actually in a position to make some decent moves. Will they? Probably not, this IS the Padres we’re talking about. With that said , they should be able to make a move or two to land a bat. Early speculation is offering one of the young arms and an outfielder for Giancarlo Stanton. As a realist, I know that’ll not happen and they’ll probably make a minor move or two and then justify it to the fans and say “We offered money around but no one would take it”

Projected Starting 2014 Lineup and Pitching Staff
1B – Yonder Alonso
2B – Jedd Gyorko
3B – Chase Headly
SS – Everth Cabrera
LF – Carlos Quentin
CF – Cameron Maybin
RF – Will Venable
C – Yasmani Grandal

SP – Andrew Chasner
SP – Ian Kennedy
SP – Tyson Ross
SP – Eric Stults
SP – Robbie Erlin/Luebke
CL – Huston Street

[Friarfan]

Latest scuttlebutt is leaning towards Headley being moved this offseason - http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4415/chase-headley

Not a good indicator for a long-term deal being struck soon. I contend they don't get anything done on the offseason, trudge their way through the season and then say that they can't reach a deal (Headley refused to negotiate during the year last year) and trade him at the deadline. That way the club can drag it out until the bitter end and contend that they tried to negotiate but Headley wouldn't, so they had to trade him to get something for him at the deadline.

[schlesinj]

Great writeup Friarfan!

[Moonlight J]

Padres with a nice pickup of Josh Johnson. 1 yr, $8M & a vesting option of $4M for 2015 if he makes fewer than 7 starts in 2014. Plus, if he has a good year, they can offer the qualifying offer & pick up a 1st rd pick

[Friarfan]

Great writeup Friarfan!

Thanks, man! With Gwynninthehall still on hiatus, I'll try to pick up the Padre slack (because I know EVERYONE cares about the Pads)

[Friarfan]

Padres with a nice pickup of Josh Johnson. 1 yr, $8M & a vesting option of $4M for 2015 if he makes fewer than 7 starts in 2014. Plus, if he has a good year, they can offer the qualifying offer & pick up a 1st rd pick

What a change from the last couple of years where we've had to wait until just before spring training to sign a leftover free agent arm (Harang, Garland, Marquis...). We were actually one of the early entries in to the free agent market and acquired a young, talented arm (albeit with quite a bit of risk) for market value?

As stated above in my write-up, they do have some cash to spend with their increasing of payroll and some contracts off the books from the prior year.

Decent rotation piling up, but a lot of "ifs"

Johnson - IF his injury history is in the past and can put behind his erratic year in Toronto
Cashner - IF he can be a 200+ inning pitcher (which he's never done)
Kennedy - IF he can remain consistent and get back to 2011-2012 form
Ross - IF he can put in a full year as a starter
Stults - IF, well, there's not much "if" with him, he is what he is. Chances are he'll be replaced by Weiland/Luebke when they're ready.

The early signing of Johnson probably sets up a deal to be made sometime this winter to trade an arm or two for a bat (my hopes anyway). They have a glut of arms that will be at AAA/AA that should be ready sometime this year.

Pads also signed BoSox Anthony Carter to add some depth to the bullpen.

Again, realism sets in when looking up at the divisional competition up north (and even further north) and the salaries they have on the field.

[Don Quixote]

Great writeup Friarfan!

I agree. Great work, ff. Agrees with what I got out of my far less verbose brother and his too-good-for-him wonderful g/f, who live in the SD area.

What's the deal with GITH?

[Friarfan]

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/7687/patrick-schuster

The Pads traded Anthony Bass to the Astros to get the #1 pick in the rule 5 draft - Patrick Schuster...

The Padres will get a 23-year-old that they hope can be a LOOGY in 2014. Schuster, Arizona's 13th-round pick in 2009, likely still holds the affection of A.J. Hinch and Josh Byrnes, who lead San Diego's front office. Schuster is a low-angle southpaw -- which helps him torment left-handed hitters -- who once threw four straight no-hitters in high school. He had a 1.83 ERA and 45/18 K/BB ratio over 44 1/3 innings this year with High-A Vasalia.

The kicker to the deal is that the pads also sent their rule 5 pick to the Astros and they don't have to keep Schuster on the 25 man roster all year and can send him down to the minors if needed (this is how I understood it as explained on the radio).

Schuster looks like he can capably fill the Lefty Specialist role vacated by Joe Thatcher.

[Kevin Seitzer]

The kicker to the deal is that the pads also sent their rule 5 pick to the Astros and they don't have to keep Schuster on the 25 man roster all year and can send him down to the minors if needed (this is how I understood it as explained on the radio).

Schuster is still subject to the Rule 5 restriction of remaining on the 25-man roster all season. A trade does not eliminate that restriction.

[Friarfan]

Schuster is still subject to the Rule 5 restriction of remaining on the 25-man roster all season. A trade does not eliminate that restriction.

Thanks, Mike. I know it didn't sound right, but it was what the local radio honk here in SD had mentioned.

I don't think it's a problem, though, as he seems like he will plug right in to the lefty-specialist role nicely.

[Moonlight J]

What the hell are they going to do with all of those outfielders? I count 8 guys that played for them in 2013, 5 of which are right-handed.

In short, please trade Denorfia to Tampa Bay. Kthxbye

[Don Quixote]

Schuster is still subject to the Rule 5 restriction of remaining on the 25-man roster all season. A trade does not eliminate that restriction.

Mike,

I'm curious. Does time on the DL count against the "all season" rule? It seems like I've seen a lot of these Rule 5 guys put there with phantom injuries. My favorite was years ago, when the Reds tried to put Marc Kroon (anyone remember him?) on the DL with left shoulder soreness when he was right-handed or vice versa, and MLB made them take it back.

[Moonlight J]

Yes, time on the DL is considered time on the 25 man roster. Rule 5 dudes are extra scrutinized