2K24: Baltimore Orioles

[The Feral Slasher]

They can certainly take on salary, though.

My friends and I usually have this discussion -- these bottom feeders are always on "the cycle": they dump, those prospects start to make the roster, some do well, other don't, they continue to dump, the older prospects start to become solid players or stars, then over time the newer prospects make the roster, but by the time the newer prospects become solid players, the team is trading off the older, former prospects. Wash, rinse & repeat. Once in a blue moon do the stars align and the older prospects and newer prospects emerge together, then that's when the team should make trades to help. It happens, but infrequently -- 2015 Royals, 2016 Cubs, I'm sure there's a few others.

This is the time for the Orioles. They haven't been this good since 2016 (which was definitely a team that was on the cycle as well). Go out and make a few low cost deals for pitchers like Paul Blackburn or Daniel Bard, add $10-$20m in salary, and let's see what we have here. Stranger things have happened.

If they can take on salary without giving up any top prospects that would be a good move for sure

[revo]

10th win in a row for the O's, their longest win streak since 1999. They now sit a 45-44, and this is the latest they've been over .500 since September 2017.

[rhd]

My friends and I usually have this discussion -- these bottom feeders are always on "the cycle": they dump, those prospects start to make the roster, some do well, other don't, they continue to dump, the older prospects start to become solid players or stars, then over time the newer prospects make the roster, but by the time the newer prospects become solid players, the team is trading off the older, former prospects. Wash, rinse & repeat.

This is what the Pirates do. They're in a perpetual state of "rebuilding". That's why they're probably not going anywhere under the current ownership/management. This has never been the Orioles' strategy. Yes, they have boatloads of money but now is not the time to spend it unless there is some deal that they cant refuse and that makes sense.

Once in a blue moon do the stars align and the older prospects and newer prospects emerge together, then that's when the team should make trades to help. It happens, but infrequently -- 2015 Royals, 2016 Cubs, I'm sure there's a few others.

This happens often, especially the last 7 years. The Royals and Cubs are not the only recent teams to go from relatively short rebuilds to WS champs. The Astro in 2017, the Nats in 2019 and the Braves in 2021 also did it. That's 5 out of the last 7 WS champs that won this way. This is what the O's are trying to do and they need to stay the course.

This is the time for the Orioles. They haven't been this good since 2016 (which was definitely a team that was on the cycle as well). Go out and make a few low cost deals for pitchers like Paul Blackburn or Daniel Bard, add $10-$20m in salary, and let's see what we have here. Stranger things have happened.

Not the time now. They dont have the talent and they're more than just a a player or 2 away. Most of their top prospects that will comprise the team of the future are still in the minors: Henderson, Cowser, G-Rod, Hall, Westburg, Kjerstad, Mayo, Stowers. They all should be ready by 2024 and that's the year I think they'll be legit playoff contenders again. Maybe next year, but more likely 2024 IMO. A lot of fans will be upset if they dont go for it but I think Mike Elias will weather the criticism and stick to the plan.

[madducks]

The Orioles having the first pick and 3 of the top 42 picks in Sunday's MLB draft should also help their cause.

There are some interesting names in this draft:

OF Druw Jones (No. 1 prospect), son of former MLB OF Andruw Jones
SS Jackson Holliday (No. 2 prospect), son of former MLB OF Matt Holliday
OF Elijah Green (No. 3 prospect), son of former NFL TE Eric Green
OF Justin Crawford (No. 13 prospect), son of former MLB OF Carl Crawford

I'm hoping that Green falls to the Pirates, who have the number 4 pick.

[madducks]

Last year's top prospect SP Kumar Rocker is also back in the draft after the Mets backed out of a $6 million deal over concerns about his shoulder and elbow.

[Ken]

OF Justin Crawford (No. 13 prospect), son of former MLB OF Carl Crawford

Wow, Carl Crawford already has a kid old enough to be drafted? I feel old.

[revo]

This happens often, especially the last 7 years. The Royals and Cubs are not the only recent teams to go from relatively short rebuilds to WS champs. The Astro in 2017, the Nats in 2019 and the Braves in 2021 also did it. That's 5 out of the last 7 WS champs that won this way. This is what the O's are trying to do and they need to stay the course.

Let's not confuse the Braves, Astros & Nats, three teams with usually sizable payrolls, with the Orioles or these other perpetual bottom feeders. Those teams did indeed rebuild, but I'm talking about these small market teams that are never-ending rebuilders because they never keep their homegrown players.

[Ken]

Let's not confuse the Braves, Astros & Nats, three teams with usually sizable payrolls, with the Orioles or these other perpetual bottom feeders. Those teams did indeed rebuild, but I'm talking about these small market teams that are never-ending rebuilders because they never keep their homegrown players.

I don't see how Baltimore is dissimilar from Houston historically.

Look at Houston's rebuilding years, they were down at $22mm in 2013 (by far the lowest payroll), and $44mm in 2014 (lowest payroll).

Baltimore's 2017 payroll was $142mm and $143 mm in 2018.

Seems like both teams drop payroll when they are rebuilding (like most teams).

[revo]

I don't see how Baltimore is dissimilar from Houston historically.

Look at Houston's rebuilding years, they were down at $22mm in 2013 (by far the lowest payroll), and $44mm in 2014 (lowest payroll).

Baltimore's 2017 payroll was $142mm and $143 mm in 2018.

Seems like both teams drop payroll when they are rebuilding (like most teams).

Perhaps, but something seems to have changed with Baltimore. They were once one of the MLB's top payroll teams, but I think it's now less about rebuilding than it is something with Peter Angelos's unwillingness to spend.

[Ken]

Perhaps, but something seems to have changed with Baltimore. They were once one of the MLB's top payroll teams, but I think it's now less about rebuilding than it is something with Peter Angelos's unwillingness to spend.

I guess. Couldn't we have said the same thing about Houston though in 2013?

[The Feral Slasher]

Perhaps, but something seems to have changed with Baltimore. They were once one of the MLB's top payroll teams, but I think it's now less about rebuilding than it is something with Peter Angelos's unwillingness to spend.

Well not to excuse money grubbing owners...but i suspect the Nats presence has hurt Baltimore. And they are not a huge city like Houston. They need to be savvy to succeed, as well as being open to spending when appropriate

EDIT-perhaps should have been a response to Ken

EDIT 2 - and I could be wrong, I really haven't looked at team incomes, but I suspect Baltimore may be on the low end. Of course if your team sucks, that doesn't help

[Ken]

Is there really evidence that Baltimore won't go for it once they have a strong young base? They had a competitive payroll in 2018, just 4 years ago, and they have been rebuilding since then. Why is it assumed they will not increase the payroll when it is time to do so? It would not have made sense to do so in the last few years, but the only data points we have are 4-5 years ago, when they actually had a decent payroll, and.. the future which we don't know yet.

[The Feral Slasher]

Is there really evidence that Baltimore won't go for it once they have a strong young base? They had a competitive payroll in 2018, just 4 years ago, and they have been rebuilding since then. Why is it assumed they will not increase the payroll when it is time to do so? It would not have made sense to do so in the last few years, but the only data points we have are 4-5 years ago, when they actually had a decent payroll, and.. the future which we don't know yet.

I sure hope they will. I don't assume they won't.

[revo]

Is there really evidence that Baltimore won't go for it once they have a strong young base? They had a competitive payroll in 2018, just 4 years ago, and they have been rebuilding since then. Why is it assumed they will not increase the payroll when it is time to do so? It would not have made sense to do so in the last few years, but the only data points we have are 4-5 years ago, when they actually had a decent payroll, and.. the future which we don't know yet.

I think the evidence is that as of a couple of weeks ago, they were heavily rumored to be looking to move Mullins, Santander, Hays, Mancini, etc., rather than locking them up for a few more years.

[madducks]

Perhaps, but something seems to have changed with Baltimore. They were once one of the MLB's top payroll teams, but I think it's now less about rebuilding than it is something with Peter Angelos's unwillingness to spend.

Things changed with that terrible Chris Davis contract.