top ten nl pitchers 2014

[swampdragon]

Whalewang listed his thoughts on the top ten NL pitchers

Kershaw
Wainwright
Strasburg
Cliff Lee
Hamels
Greinke
Jose Fernandez
Cain

Latos
Gio Gonzalez
Zimmermann
Bailey
Minor
Shelby Miller
Cole
Cueto
Teheran
Cingrani
Wacha

The top 8 are pretty clear to me. I can see Wacha fall into the 9th or 10th spot on some lists.

ElD courageously declared Wacha to be a top 10 pitcher

I think that the 8 listed seem to belong but am not sure of 9/10 - and also am not certain that Timmy is really done - anyone else want to weigh in

[joncarlos]

I'll take MadBum over Cain for sure. And I think I'd take Cole and Teheran before I took Wacha.

[whalewang]

I'll take MadBum over Cain for sure. And I think I'd take Cole and Teheran before I took Wacha.

Yeah, Bumgarner over Cain and maybe Grienke. Oversight on my part. In my league I'd probably take a couple of the stud closers over Cain also.

I don't think Timmy cracks my top 20 (NL-only pitcher list).
edit: timmy is not in my top 30 SP and I'd take at least 10 closers in front of him but I think he'll improve next year.

[madducks]

No love for Francisco Liriano?

[Moonlight J]

No love for Francisco Liriano?

His success was built upon a historical line vs LH batters. That's going to be very tough to repeat and thus some backsliding is likely.

[chancellor]

He's got as good as good a chance to be a 3.75 pitcher with a 1.30 WHIP as a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. The league WILL adjust to him...

Bloody doubtful. The Cardinals are one of the best - if not the best - teams in terms of developing and delivering productive starting pitchers. They had a lot of options to choose from. Joe Kelly regressing with his sub 2:1 K:BB ratio? Sure, I can see that. Lynn is pretty much WYSISYG at upper 3s ERA and 1.3ish WHIP. But Wacha's at least as good as Shelby Miller - and having seen both of them at Memphis before they were called up, I'd take Wacha in a minute. It's not just his stuff and location - both of which are extremely good already - but add his mound poise, and short of a catastrophic arm injury, he's going to be special. Shoot, game 2 of the World Series - in Fenway, with around 100 pitches under his belt, and having just been taken deep by Big Papi, and the crowd going absolutely insane, and what does he do? Simply blows Mike Napoli away. Finishes off Buff Jonny and ends the inning with no more damage.

IMO, look at Shelby Miller's numbers this year, and I'd expect Wacha to meet or better them next year. Or, to put it in Nats parlance, he has near-Strasburg type stuff with Jordan Zimmerman like presence.

The only disagreement I'd have with rating Wacha a NL top ten for next year is he'll probably be capped at 170 - 180 IP.

EDIT TO ADD: If I were going to argue with elD on his rankings, it'd be with Latos. Still young, but proven to be about as much of a lock as a pitcher can be for 3.4 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts, with upside. Plus, Dusty Baker is gone.

[Hornsby]

Bloody doubtful. The Cardinals are one of the best - if not the best - teams in terms of developing and delivering productive starting pitchers. They had a lot of options to choose from. Joe Kelly regressing with his sub 2:1 K:BB ratio? Sure, I can see that. Lynn is pretty much WYSISYG at upper 3s ERA and 1.3ish WHIP. But Wacha's at least as good as Shelby Miller - and having seen both of them at Memphis before they were called up, I'd take Wacha in a minute. It's not just his stuff and location - both of which are extremely good already - but add his mound poise, and short of a catastrophic arm injury, he's going to be special. Shoot, game 2 of the World Series - in Fenway, with around 100 pitches under his belt, and having just been taken deep by Big Papi, and the crowd going absolutely insane, and what does he do? Simply blows Mike Napoli away. Finishes off Buff Jonny and ends the inning with no more damage.

IMO, look at Shelby Miller's numbers this year, and I'd expect Wacha to meet or better them next year. Or, to put it in Nats parlance, he has near-Strasburg type stuff with Jordan Zimmerman like presence.

The only disagreement I'd have with rating Wacha a NL top ten for next year is he'll probably be capped at 170 - 180 IP.

EDIT TO ADD: If I were going to argue with elD on his rankings, it'd be with Latos. Still young, but proven to be about as much of a lock as a pitcher can be for 3.4 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts, with upside. Plus, Dusty Baker is gone.

Man, you guys live in small sample size theatre...while you both may very well be right, I'll give it at LEAST a full season before I make an assessment based on the organizations record (still quite incomplete), and a couple of playoff games. There was a reason that 18 teams passed on Wacha...looks like they're wrong at this point, but something's up there.

[Judge Jude]

agreed on caution re sample size, but especially in MLB, teams don't just draft players based on their list on a draft board. signability is huge, also where the franchise is in the rebuilding process, a need to take chances or not, depth of that position in your organization.... a lot is in play.

maybe our Astroboy can elaborate, only in general of course....

[Hornsby]

agreed on caution re sample size, but especially in MLB, teams don't just draft players based on their list on a draft board. signability is huge, also where the franchise is in the rebuilding process, a need to take chances or not, depth of that position in your organization.... a lot is in play.

maybe our Astroboy can elaborate, only in general of course....

True, but don't you usually hear about the guys who are going to be difficult to sign? This guy is a star QB with offers everywhere, the other guy wants to do something else...and I don't recall anything like that with Wacha. But that is a moot point, the kid was drafted, and now he's pitching lights out on the biggest stage the sport has to offer. Kind of like John Lackey did in 2002...

[Kevin Seitzer]

agreed on caution re sample size, but especially in MLB, teams don't just draft players based on their list on a draft board. signability is huge

Signability is huge, and not in the same way it was before the last couple drafts. Then it used be mainly what Hornsby says, where it only applied to a few exceptional two-sport athletes and such. Now with the draft bonus pools capped, it applies to everyone in the first 10 rounds. One of our main tasks before the June draft is to assess the signability of every single player on our draft board.

FWIW, Wacha's signing bonus was at slot value.

also where the franchise is in the rebuilding process, a need to take chances or not, depth of that position in your organization

These are very minor considerations, if at all, particularly when looking at a specific player. Some teams may want to compensate for a lack of depth at certain positions in their system, which will influence who they take over the course of the whole draft, but rarely will it keep them from taking who they perceive to be the best player available in the early rounds of the draft.

[Judge Jude]

thanks for the insights, KS!

[Hornsby]

Signability is huge, and not in the same way it was before the last couple drafts. Then it used be mainly what Hornsby says, where it only applied to a few exceptional two-sport athletes and such. Now with the draft bonus pools capped, it applies to everyone in the first 10 rounds. One of our main tasks before the June draft is to assess the signability of every single player on our draft board.

FWIW, Wacha's signing bonus was at slot value.



These are very minor considerations, if at all, particularly when looking at a specific player. Some teams may want to compensate for a lack of depth at certain positions in their system, which will influence who they take over the course of the whole draft, but rarely will it keep them from taking who they perceive to be the best player available in the early rounds of the draft.

Thanks Mike, always nice to have factual insight from someone in the know...

[Hornsby]

Just like there was a reason Mike Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round, eh? Or just like there was a reason Tim Beckham or Brian Bullington or Brien Taylor went at #1, eh? Lol.

Yep, sometimes all teams see the same things, and they're all wrong. It happens, as sports illustrates all the time, Tom Brady ring a bell? 6th rounder. Ryan Leaf? 2nd pick overall...

It ain't an exact science...

[chancellor]

Man, you guys live in small sample size theatre...while you both may very well be right, I'll give it at LEAST a full season before I make an assessment based on the organizations record (still quite incomplete), and a couple of playoff games. There was a reason that 18 teams passed on Wacha...looks like they're wrong at this point, but something's up there.

Well, I've also had the benefit of seeing him in Memphis, so it's not like I've not seen him throw 96ish with great command only at the MLB level. Or display a quality change. Or show great ratios only in MLB. But what really separates him from the pack of young pitchers with great arms and talent is his mound presence, IMO. As an example, Wily Peralta of the Brewers has great natural stuff and is more physically imposing than Wacha, but he has limited baseball IQ and awful mound presence.

That 18 teams passed on him is unsurprising to me, one needs only look at the depth of pitching in the Cards organization to realize they're ahead of the curve on something in player evaluation when it comes to pitchers.

[Kevin Seitzer]

That 18 teams passed on him is unsurprising to me, one needs only look at the depth of pitching in the Cards organization to realize they're ahead of the curve on something in player evaluation when it comes to pitchers.

People in Houston may have noticed that.

general manager Jeff Luhnow - former Cards VP of scouting and player development
director of decision sciences Sig Mejdal - former Cards director of amateur draft analytics
amateur scouting director Mike Elias - former Cards regional crosschecker
international director Oz Ocampo - former Cards coordinator of Latin American scouting
west coast supervisor Kris Gross - former Cards Midwest area scout
major league pitching coach Brent Strom - former Cards minor league pitching coordinator
minor league pitching coordinator Dyar Miller - former Cards bullpen coach
NY-Penn League pitching coach Doug White - former Cards Appy League pitching coach