NL-Only Keeper Decisions

[ThatRogue]

My $280, NL-only, 5x5, OBP, ULTRA league (unlimited roster moves, $100 FAAB with $1 minimum bids) has roster freeze on Friday at midnight. We are allowed 15 keepers plus three minor leaguers (to be kept at no current cost) going into the auction, and have 25 man active rosters (and 15 reserve players) during the season. Hitting inflation is usually in the 45%+ range and pitching inflation is normally in the 25%+ range. However we expanded from 11 teams to 12 teams this season, and everyone expects inflation to be high, particularly for the studs and mid-tier players.

Here are my definite keepers, with my probable extension choices. (A= Acquisition Year, *= Final Contract Year)

[B]Brooklyn BumStuds[/B]					
[B]Definite Batters		Salary			Contract[/B]
Hundley, Nick C SD		2			A10
Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL 		16			A09 - Will not extend
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL		11			*11
Gomes, Jonny LF CIN		2			A10
Gonzalez, Carlos LF COL 	10			A09 - Will extend to $20 through *13
Young, Chris B. CF ARI 		14			*11
						
[B]Definite Pitchers		Salary			Contract[/B]
Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL 	12			*11
Latos, Mat SP SD		5			A09 - Will extend to $15 through *13
Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA 		15			*11 - Should I drop and pay the $25 league fee for breaking a contract?
Stauffer, Tim RP SD		5			A10

That makes 10 keepers for $112, and my primary valuation system indicates roughly $40 of value, pre-inflation (and more than $100 savings off the projected inflated values), which is not a bad start. Now on the the minor leaguers:

						
[B]Minor League Players		Salary			Contract[/B]
Brown, Domonic RF PHI		5			A10 - Keeper
Alonso, Yonder 1B CIN		3			A09 - Keeper
Nelson, Chris 2B COL		6			A10
Martinez, Fernando OF NYM 	10			A10
Jackson, Jay, SP CHC		5			A10

Which of the remaining three minor leaguers should I keep (if any)? With a fairly solid keeper list, I am looking at whether any of them will provide decent fill-in value should one of my starters get injured. All three are AAA players this season, and in line for call-ups should their respective teams need a replacement.

Finally, here are the question marks:

						
[B]Reserve Batters			Salary			Contract[/B]
Flores, Jesus C WAS 		2			A10 - Leaning towards dropping
Allen, Brandon OF ARI 		8			A10 - Leaning towards dropping
Cedeno, Ronny SS PIT		2			A10 - Leaning towards dropping
Cunningham, Aaron RF SD		5			A10 - Definitely dropping

[B]Reserve Pitchers		Salary			Contract[/B]
Capuano, Chris RP NYM 		7			A10 - Leaning towards dropping
Hensley, Clay RP FLA 		6			A10 - Leaning towards dropping
Gorzelanny, Tom SP CHC 		3			A10 - Leaning towards keeping
Narveson, Chris SP MIL		3			A10 - Leaning towards keeping
LeBlanc, Wade SP SD		1			A10 - Leaning towards dropping
Gutierrez, Juan RP ARI		10			A10 - Definitely dropping

I like Flores and Allen, but neither are guaranteed starting jobs. Cedeno is interesting in a deep NL-only league (the system I'm using projects him at an $8 inflated price)...but there could be better (though not necessarily cheaper) options for my MI slot . All of the pitchers except for Gutierrez have some potential at those prices, so I am leaning towards keeping Narveson and Gorzelanny, and only leaving myself four open pitching slots to fill in the auction. That would mean keeping 12 for $118 and leaving myself $162 to buy 13 players in the auction.

I also need to consider whether to only extend Gonzalez and Latos through 2012 as opposed to 2013, which would save an extra $10 for the auction. I like the two year extension option because it sets me up to try for a title run in 2011, a rebuild in 2012 and another title run in 2013. However, this requires both players to perform as expected for the next three seasons...and we know how that can turn out.

So, what do you guys think?

[joncarlos]

If it was me, I'd strongly consider extending CarGo and Latos only 1 year. I don't think I'd keep any of the farm guys, though if I needed to pick one I guess I'd take Nelson.

Ronny Cedeno sucks. I think you should have a rule that you never keep someone who is bad at baseball.

From your maybe list, I like Allen and Narveson for sure, and I think that's it. I would rather have a good $3 MR than a $3 Gorzo.

[Gregg]

Wow, just as I was finishing typing my thoughts I bumped a key and it took me to a different screen....THEN ERASED MY ANSWER!!

I am in a league that plays by the same rules as you do. I would extend Latos one year. It gives you the extra 5 bucks at auction while improving his trade value in the event that you need something to win this year. It also expands your trading partners to the whole league. I would extend CarGo two years because he is just that good. Plus the whole pitching vs Off thing.

I am in the same boat as you are when it comes to Gorz. I have him for a buck. He should show a profit. I have been advised in here to let him go. Since I always buy a $1 pitcher at end game, why not him? This is where I go out on faith. I respect the guys in here and no one thinks it is a good idea to keep him. Add to that I cannot trade him. My league does not like him. That means I can still get him in the end game if I want to. Heck I might even get him in one of the reserve rounds. I will be dropping him and second guessing myself until after the auction.

I am not a believer in Narveson either. I would keep Gorz before him.

Flores is now third on the list. Unless he gets traded he is useless.

I understand the reasoning behind Cedeno. I just traded a draft pick upgrade for a $2 Jaimie Carroll (projects at $8 on my program) and a $1 Paulino. Part of my version of stars and scrubbs. Sometimes in leagues as deep as ours it is the players that will hurt you the least. I know my league and I will not get anyone better for those prices. I like Carroll's BA at that price. I think Cedeno will hurt you with his. Maybe you can trade him for Carroll?

I actually like LeBlanc for a buck. He is only 26. Pitches in PETCO. Except for injuries, I don't pay too much attention to spring stats. At worst case you can replace him later. I think he is a good gamble. I just checked he is back in our auction. Maybe I found my replacement for Gorz?

[mjl]

1) I would not cut Nolasco unless your league is expensive enough that $25 is relatively trivial. Maybe this is his year!

2) With inflation that high, I think the two-year raises are reasonable, although you really are erasing almost all of Latos's profitability, especially when you consider the risk of injury. Personally I would only give him one year.

3) I wouldn't keep any of your other minor leaguers -- COL has a lot of utility infielders now, NYM has Captain Kirk and Duda in addition to Martinez so I think he'd only get called up if they needed him in center, and CHC... maybe Jackson gets called up, but they're already having a fifth starter competition in spring training and he's not part of it.

4) I would definitely not keep Gorz or Narveson. I think they both have a chance of returning what you paid for them... not a great chance, but a chance. But with low-end guys like that, the opportunity cost of locking up a roster spot is enough that I'd rather see if I could get a more interesting deal at auction (or just not end up with any cheap pitchers if I liked the deals I was getting). Given other people are using different projections than you are, you can generally guarantee that you'll find a decent deal in the endgame by your standards -- for example, using the projections from my site of choice, Narveson is projected for $2 and Gorz for -$6.

- Mike

[chancellor]

There's no way I cut Nolasco. Yes, he underperforms every reputable experts rating. But pay $25 for someone who actually shows some talent in a league as deep as yours? Nope. Don't do it.

Keep Narveson. Toss Gorzelanny. Yeah, I'm a Brewer fan, but I recommend keeping Narveson simply because I watched him all last year, not due to homerism. He's a young lefty who really grew up in the second half. He works hard at his craft, and I think he'll improve further this year and be more consistent.

I'd extend Latos for a year and CarGo for two.

I'd keep Brown, Nelson and Martinez of your minors.

Toss me on the opposite end of the Ronny Cedeno boat - if you really think he's worth 8, you're nuts not to keep him for 2. In a really deep league like yours, finding MIs who actually return profit at endgame prices is pretty dicey at best. I have him valued at 6 in my 11-team league. If I had him at 2, I'd keep him.

[ThatRogue]

Thanks for the help guys. You've put a number of things into perspective...and I am getting closer regarding my final keeper plan.

I'm definitely going to keep Nolasco and ride out his contract year. I'll also keep Narveson but drop Gorzelanny, giving me five pitchers going into the auction. I'm leaning towards extend CarGo two years to $20, but Latos only one year to $10, which will give me an extra $5 units to use during the auction.

I'm now leaning slightly towards keeping Cedeno, despite JC's negative feelings of his performance with the Pirates, and tossing MI's all auction. If one is significantly undervalued, then I can slot him as one of my two UT players. I'm also more strongly considering keeping Chris Nelson as my final minor league exempt player, because he might be more useful near term than whatever I'd get with the last pick of the reserve round. However, I'm far from 100% convinced.

Finally, I think my toughest decision will be what to do with Wade LeBlanc. At $1 he is interesting, but, aside from Petco, I am not sure how appealing he is as a keeper. He has an excellent changeup, but his other pitches are still developing, so the jury is still out on his upside. I'm leaning towards tossing back, but considering him if he is still around in the end game and I have no better options.

Thanks again for the help. I still have a few days to monitor ST developments...but it is good to have your input so that I don't repeat keeper mistakes I've made in the past.

[joncarlos]

I'm really not sure how you've got Cedeno valued at $8 - his OBP last year was .293. And it took him 500 PAs to get 12 steals and 8 HRs. I guess if that's really worth $8 then keep 2. He is a better roto hitter than RL hitter, that's for sure. I am not sure he gets 500 PAs again this year but he could come close.

Leblanc is just so blah. He doesn't help you in Ks. The best thing he can do is give you wins, and the Padres' offense is not good. You could start him at home only but then is he really worth having over a good MR?

[ThatRogue]

Digging deeper, Cedeno's actual value comes out to $5.44, which is $7.67 with inflation. Of course, one could argue that inflation tends to be higher at the high-end and mid-tier, which probably brings Cedeno's inflated value closer to $6 instead of $8.

I agree...LeBlanc is pretty blah. Versus a good MR, LeBlanc should wind up with more wins and Ks, whereas a good MR should wind up with a better ERA, WHIP and the possibility of saves. A good MR has lower downside risk and is probably a better end-game buy. The only arguments for keeping LeBlanc, aside from Petco, would be if someone feels that he'd make good trade bait (he has not, thus far) or if someone believes he is going to take a step up, ala some other young lefties in recent seasons (i.e. Clayton Richard). I don't see it happening, but it makes sense to ask for other opinions.

[Gregg]

Hmm...I don't think 110k's in 146 ip is exactly chicken feed. He is only 26 years old. He has room for improvement. We are not talking HOF here, we are talking $1 end gamers that happens to be on a roster. If I had him I wouldn't be afraid to keep him, in fact he will be one of my end game $1-$2 targets. I can pick up an MR with Faab in my reserve draft if I need to.

[umjewman]

Always nice for me to see your keeper decisions three days in advance

[ThatRogue]

Like you didn't know these already. We've been talking about keepers and auction prices just about every day this month. lol