2K24: New York Yankees

[BuckyBuckner]

I would be shocked to see Wells in pinstripes come April-- he's a clear cut situation-- no value to the bat, none to the glove, not a big hit to the wallet to cut him loose. With Kuroda back, that makes the current rotation Sabathia, Kuroda, & Nova-- you figure they have to go balls to the wall for Tanaka now if he's even posted, then you have a bunch of decent options for #5 in Pineda, Warren, Nuno, etc. Not great but livable with Tanaka in the fold.

Right now everything I've seen in the Yankee blogs (and Mike Axisa at RAB is pretty dead on most of the time), Soriano is the RF at the moment with Wells going away and Ichiro likely another cut or fourth OF. They need some more offense, obviously, so going hard for Choo makes sense. Trade Gardner? I can see it-- having Ellsbury & Gardner in two OF spots on a power-short team seems a bit excessive-- but I don;t think they'll be going out of their way to do that.

The infield will be interesting-- I hope they let the Reds stew under that stupid Phillips contract and avoid that pitfall. Infante makes some sense with Johnson as super sub or in a 3B platoon.

Even if Tanaka is posted from what I understand there is no "balls to the wall" strategy. It's a max of $20M and the tie breaker is worst record. Not a good situation for the Yanks.

[mike9289]

If it means getting Bailey I would take that Phillip's contract. They need another sp that doesn't have so many question marks. Getting Kuroda back is definitely a good thing but he does fade in sept every year and Pinieda has the shoulder. With the new posting fee limit the Tanaka ship has sailed. And unfortunetly the only asset we have that would get us a good sp is Gardner.

[mike9289]

Pretty sure this is what the new system is:

"MLB offer to NPB was max posting bid $20M, any team willing to pay can negotiate with plyr for prescribed 1-month period. Plyr picks team."

Wouldn't that make seattle the favorite should he get posted? They always had an upper hand with the Japanese players coming over and now they are spending like crazy.

[BuckyBuckner]

No. All that means is that every team that posts $20M, in Tanaka's case, will have the opportunity to negotiate with him instead of the old way where the highest posting team was the only one that could negotiate with him. I'd wager that nearly every team would post the $20M and then Tanaka and his reps could choose with which teams to negotiate. Teams with the big pockets would clearly still have the advantage in offering an actual contract for big bucks.

Gotcha, thanks. I swear I read something that said it the other way. Maybe it was one of the many rumors out there. So does that mean that only the team that signs the player pays the $20M? I can't imagine that the Japanese team collects a check from all teams that bid $20M. Right?

[BuckyBuckner]

That's correct. So essentially a lot of the Tanaka business will come down to first whether his team will actually post him and, if they do, which team Tanaka really wants to play for. It will still have to be a team with deep pockets to shell out the big bucks he's surely seeking.

So the players will end up getting more money. In the past teams have used the large post fee as an excuse not to give players a big payday. The more obvious reason is that multiple teams will now likely have the opportunity to negotiate with the player.

Last I heard is that Tanaka's team doesn't want to post him. I guess they are bummed they are losing out on $40M. Can't say I blame them.

[Don Quixote]

So the players will end up getting more money. In the past teams have used the large post fee as an excuse not to give players a big payday. The more obvious reason is that multiple teams will now likely have the opportunity to negotiate with the player.

Last I heard is that Tanaka's team doesn't want to post him. I guess they are bummed they are losing out on $40M. Can't say I blame them.

I can't blame them. They can post him now and get the $20 million, or keep him for another year of presumably superior performance and get $20 million next year. IMO that's a no-brainer.

[Don Quixote]

Just in case anyone was wondering--

Doing a VERY rough cut of Cano's deal with Seattle for $24 million per year, given the tax rates of New York State and City and that the state of Washington has no state income tax, the Yankees would have had to offer between $25.44 and $26.95 million per year for the after-tax numbers to come out evenly. New York state taxes top out at 8.82% on taxable income over $2 million, and NYC taxes top out at 3.876% on taxable income over $500,000. You can see why Captain Intangibles tried and failed to claim Florida residency a few years ago.

[Don Quixote]

I would be shocked to see Wells in pinstripes come April-- he's a clear cut situation-- no value to the bat, none to the glove, not a big hit to the wallet to cut him loose. With Kuroda back, that makes the current rotation Sabathia, Kuroda, & Nova-- you figure they have to go balls to the wall for Tanaka now if he's even posted, then you have a bunch of decent options for #5 in Pineda, Warren, Nuno, etc. Not great but livable with Tanaka in the fold.

Right now everything I've seen in the Yankee blogs (and Mike Axisa at RAB is pretty dead on most of the time), Soriano is the RF at the moment with Wells going away and Ichiro likely another cut or fourth OF. They need some more offense, obviously, so going hard for Choo makes sense. Trade Gardner? I can see it-- having Ellsbury & Gardner in two OF spots on a power-short team seems a bit excessive-- but I don;t think they'll be going out of their way to do that.

The infield will be interesting-- I hope they let the Reds stew under that stupid Phillips contract and avoid that pitfall. Infante makes some sense with Johnson as super sub or in a 3B platoon.

I'm not sure that Phillips' contract is that stupid, or more precisely that it was stupid when negotiated--runs through 2017 at $11-12-13-14 million. My recollection is that the local reaction was the usual thing--reasonable per year, too many years. I think he has an NTC and would demand renegotiation in order to be dealt, especially given the almost 5.2% difference between the top bracket of combined NY-NYC income taxes and OH-Cincinnati taxes (12.696% vs. 7.521%). The real issue for the Reds would be how to replace Phillips, given that the current in-house alternatives are Skip Schumaker and Cesar Izturis.

[Don Quixote]

Yankees sign Carlos Beltran for 3 years, $45 million.

They now have six OFs under contract--Ellsbury, Gardner, Soriano, Beltran, Suzuki, and Wells. Even assuming the inevitable release of Wells, that's five OFs and four slots if you include DH.

And if you include DH, where do you put Jeter and/or Teixeira on their inevitable ouchie days? Who subs for them at SS and 1B, respectively?

Who's your 2B other than Kelly Johnson, a non-renowned defender with a hot-and-very-cold bat?

Who's your 3B unless the incumbent whom you don't want back has his suspension overturned?

We haven't even discussed the pitching.

I fully understand signing Ellsbury. I would understand signing Beltran if they hadn't signed Ellsbury. But given their other holes, I don't understand signing both.

[Hornsby]

If they really want to stop, look, and improve their ballclub and chances of competing, they need to use that "found" money to sign a veteran closer...Balfour would be the logical candidate. lengthen the bullpen out and continue with that tradition of locking the 9th down...I don't know if David Robinson is the guy, seems better off as a set-up man.

[revo]

I'm not sure that Phillips' contract is that stupid, or more precisely that it was stupid when negotiated--runs through 2017 at $11-12-13-14 million. My recollection is that the local reaction was the usual thing--reasonable per year, too many years. I think he has an NTC and would demand renegotiation in order to be dealt, especially given the almost 5.2% difference between the top bracket of combined NY-NYC income taxes and OH-Cincinnati taxes (12.696% vs. 7.521%). The real issue for the Reds would be how to replace Phillips, given that the current in-house alternatives are Skip Schumaker and Cesar Izturis.

Agreed, Phillips' contract seems like a bargain today.

[Don Quixote]

Agreed, Phillips' contract seems like a bargain today.

For 2014 and maybe 2015, yes. However, the feeling that it was too long a deal appears to be accurate. While Phillips had a good RBI year last year, probably because he hit fourth behind Joey "I'd rather take a walk" Votto more often than before, his speed disappeared, and his BA, SLG, and OBP all dropped. His renowned defense definitely declined, with the same amount of mostly unnecessary flash but reduced range and more balls that were generously scored hits rather than errors than in previous years.

Getting back to the subject--Phillips, declining skills and all, would be an upgrade for the Yankees. However, the other parts of the equation still remain, the ones those Yankee fans who are prone to not thinking things out always forget--(1), what do the Yankees have to offer in exchange?, and (2), what do the Reds have to take his place?

My answers to those questions as of now are--(1) not much except maybe some low-level "prospects" who don't seem to have even the usual Yankee hype, and (2) not much except Skip Schumaker and/or Cesar Izturis.

Based on that, I'd say there won't be a deal. The Reds are kind of in "win now" mode, perhaps not as much as the Yankees, who are almost always in that mode, and trading Phillips now doesn't fit with that.

[Don Quixote]

From Rotoworld--

"Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Yankees have no interest in trading for Braves second baseman Dan Uggla.
The Yankees are now forced to explore the market to fill the void at second base left by Robinson Cano's departure, but Uggla won't be one of the names they consider. Omar Infante is believed to be the preferred option for the Bombers."

Given that Uggla is not a Boras client, I take this Heyman report as not being of much worth. However, he's probably right. I don't think even the Yankees want that contract (two years remaining at $13 million/year).

[mike9289]

For 2014 and maybe 2015, yes. However, the feeling that it was too long a deal appears to be accurate. While Phillips had a good RBI year last year, probably because he hit fourth behind Joey "I'd rather take a walk" Votto more often than before, his speed disappeared, and his BA, SLG, and OBP all dropped. His renowned defense definitely declined, with the same amount of mostly unnecessary flash but reduced range and more balls that were generously scored hits rather than errors than in previous years.

Getting back to the subject--Phillips, declining skills and all, would be an upgrade for the Yankees. However, the other parts of the equation still remain, the ones those Yankee fans who are prone to not thinking things out always forget--(1), what do the Yankees have to offer in exchange?, and (2), what do the Reds have to take his place?

My answers to those questions as of now are--(1) not much except maybe some low-level "prospects" who don't seem to have even the usual Yankee hype, and (2) not much except Skip Schumaker and/or Cesar Izturis.

Based on that, I'd say there won't be a deal. The Reds are kind of in "win now" mode, perhaps not as much as the Yankees, who are almost always in that mode, and trading Phillips now doesn't fit with that.

Would the Reds rather have a hole in CF and leadoff hitter or one at 2B? Gardner fits the CF/leadoff hitter perfectly for them on the cheap. Been saying that Gardner for Phillips would work. I'm going to amend that a bit. Infante is a satisfactory option at 2B. Gardner to the Reds for a starting pitcher makes a lot of sense. Reds have Cingrani, Leake, Latos, Bailey and Cueto. They can't resign Choo because he costs too much. If they give us Bailey for Gardner maybe they can find a $6,7 million guy to be their 5th starter.

[Hornsby]

Would the Reds rather have a hole in CF and leadoff hitter or one at 2B? Gardner fits the CF/leadoff hitter perfectly for them on the cheap. Been saying that Gardner for Phillips would work. I'm going to amend that a bit. Infante is a satisfactory option at 2B. Gardner to the Reds for a starting pitcher makes a lot of sense. Reds have Cingrani, Leake, Latos, Bailey and Cueto. They can't resign Choo because he costs too much. If they give us Bailey for Gardner maybe they can find a $6,7 million guy to be their 5th starter.

Why would the Reds do that? It's far easier to find a slightly better than average outfielder (Gardner to a tee) than a good starting pitcher. Bailey has superior stuff, 2 no hitters IIRC, and is still young and learning. There is virtually no chance the Reds would deal Bailey for any of the Yanks position players...