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  • Offseason trade question

    Feeling suspicious of my instincts, so I figured I would ask y'all what you thought.

    I'm in a 12 team, NL-Only, 25 man roster, $280 cap league. OBP instead of average, but otherwise standard 5x5. Naturally, I'm a Mets fan so I have Matt Harvey at $5, due extension. Our league rules permit an extra year if the player does not pitch an inning or have an AB in the prior year. Obviously, that will be the case this year. So, if I do not extend him, I would have him for $5 in 2015. Or, if I extended him, I could have him at $10 through 2016. I dumped this past year and although my haul was not quite as good as I liked due to a juggernaut in first place that made everyone gun shy from dumping, I have some decent pieces for next year (including Posey, Strasburg, Samardzija and Brothers). There is one team who is the clear odds-on favorite as of now, as he has Bryce Harper, Freeman, Domonic Brown, Rosario, Rizzo, Teheran, Shelby Miller, Medlen and Billy Hamilton.

    Anyway, the previous year champion gutted his roster and is on a 2-year plan to rebuild so Harvey makes perfect sense for him. He offered me Hunter Pence at $33 (starting second year) and Justin Ruggiano at $5 (due extension) for Harvey and Clayton Blackburn (MLE - who I like, but I have Syndergaard, Heaney, Kyle Parker and Wilmer Flores, who I'm pretty sure I would keep before him, so he would end up getting tossed back).

    Unless Pence is not a keeper at $33 (which I think he is in a $280 league where 9 hitters went between $44 and $58 last year), I'm having a hard time finding a reason not to accept the deal, which makes me naturally suspicious.

    What say you all? Thanks in advance.

  • #2
    I would not do it. Sure, Harvey might come back terrible but he might come back awesome. Ruggiano is not any good. Pence is very good but not an OBP guy, and I would think you could get a lot more than that for Harvey. I would probably keep Blackburn over Flores if you did it.

    One question though, Harvey just had the surgery, are you sure he won't make a token appearance next September?

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    • #3
      I'd hang on to Harvey and extend to $10; if he pitches well in 2015, he'll be a great player to trade during 2015 if you end up making a 2015 run.

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      • #4
        I'd extend Harvey to $10 and keep him. Pence is a keeper at $33, but not a great one. Ruggiano in a 12-team NL only has value - roughly 50 runs/50 RBI/15 SBs, though his OBP is pretty ugly. But again, keepable, but not great at $5. I'd go for the lottery pick on Harvey.

        JC hit on the most likely risk you'll get bit with - Harvey recovers a little ahead of schedule, and the Mets get him on the mound with limited pitch counts for a couple meaningless games in September. But then you still have him at 10 for '15.
        I'm just here for the baseball.

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        • #5
          I don't see enough profit in Pence at that price or Ruggiano at any price to justify giving up Harvey. I'm iffy on the extension, but that's mostly because I'm iffy on all extensions.
          Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

          Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

          A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
          -- William James

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          • #6
            Thanks everyone. Looks unanimous against my instincts. Go team Seth!

            Appreciate it.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by umjewman View Post
              Thanks everyone. Looks unanimous against my instincts. Go team Seth!

              Appreciate it.
              Seth, this is good feedback. Your choice is really this: EITHER extend Harvey to $10 through 2016 (and burn a roster/keeper slot for 2014) OR trade Harvey, free up the spot, but only for a serious haul.

              I also have Harvey for $5 / option year, but we don't have that "free extra year" idea (wish we did). In your case, there is ZERO way I trade a cheap Harvey without getting a serious return. Harvey at $10 in 2015/2016 could be awesome. Pence at $33? That's not locking in a lot of under-priced talent.

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              • #8
                I'm kind of in the same boat. I have Harvey for $5-'15 in 12TO, and I guess I'll have to "waste" a freeze on him for 2014. I figure it could be worth it to keep him, unless someone overwhelms me with an offer.
                Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

                Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

                A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
                -- William James

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