2014-2018 Playoff Success: Astros or Phillies, who ya got?

[joncarlos]

I know this was discussed on one of the podcasts I listen to... probably Fringe Average. Here's the deal:

Right now, you have to pick one team or the other based on how much playoff success they'll have for the next 5 years. I'm talking about the real franchises, and what you expect they'll do. In this particular case, the Astros are awful at the moment, and if you had to bet on regular season records over the next 5 years you'd surely take the Phillies. But the Phillies will probably decline and the Astros should be on the rise. The logical assumption is that Phillies will probably have a higher payroll but we don't really know what the Astros will do when they start to get good. So who do you take over the next 5 years? These are 2 teams pretty much at opposite ends of the spectrum.

If there's interest I've got a few others in mind - Angels/Yankees, Mets/Marlins, Twins/Cubs, maybe White Sox/Brewers.

Key Phillies:

SP Cliff Lee 5yr/120mil through 2015 (27.5mil option for 2016)
SP Cole Hamels 6yr/144mil through 2018 (20mil option for 2019)
1B Ryan Howard 5yrs/125mil through 2016 (23mil option for 2017)
2B Chase Utley 2yrs/27mil through 2015 (15mil vesting options for 2016-2018)
RP Jonathan Papelbon 4yrs/50mil through 2015 (13mil vesting option for 2016)
SS Jimmy Rollins 3yrs/33mil through 2014 (11mil vesting option for 2015)
OF Domonic Brown - not yet arb eligible

Free agents: Roy Halladay, Carlos Ruiz

Others: I think Kyle Kendrick is a free agent after 2014, arb eligible for 2013. Cuban Miguel Gonzalez was rumored to get 50mil and actually got 12mil. Ben Revere is probably arb-eligible. So is John Mayberry. Darin Ruf is pre-arb.

Prospects/young guys: Cody Asche (probable 3B next year), 3B Mikael Franco ('13 or '14), SP Jesse Biddle (2014). Overall not a great farm system. Sebastian Valle and Tommy Joseph both kind of failed to emerge as Ruiz' replacement. 2013 first rounder SS JP Crawford looks like the real deal but he's a long way away.

Summary: With Halladay off the books the Phillies have money to spend, but on what? An impact bat in RF or another top-level SP would seem to be the most useful. Rollins and Utley are here for now, but how healthy and productive will they be?

Key Astros:

2B Jose Altuve is the only player signed long-term. He's signed through 2017 with 2 club options in 2018-19 if he turns out to be good.
C Jason Castro - arb eligible soon, but I think not till after 2013
1B/OF Chris Carter - still pre-arb

Beyond Altuve and Castro, I'm not sure who on the current roster is going to be part of the team in 2016 and beyond. Maybe backup catcher Carlos Corporan. Maybe SS Jonathan Villar or 3B Matt Dominguez but neither of those are likely to be superstar players.

Prospects/young guys: You know, other than the above. George Springer seems like he'll be at least a solid major leaguer. Carlos Correa is a future star. Mark Appel is a future near-star. Jonathan Singleton is probably still a solid major leaguer. You can probably add presumptive #1 pick Carlos Rodon to this list. Lance McCullers, Delino Deshields Jr, Robbie Grossman, Mike Foltynewicz, Kyle Smith, Danry Vazquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Jarred Cosart, Brandon Barnes, LJ Hoes, Jordan Lyles, Lucas Harrell, Brad Peacock... some of these guys will turn out to be good.

Summary: In 3 years they could have a core of Castro/Altuve/Springer/Singleton/Correa with a rotation of Appel/Rodon/Folty and a huge pile of failed prospects, some of which are usable relievers. But you still need to squint to see it.

[Piney Boy]

As long as Amaro is GM of the Phillies they have no shot at the playoffs.

[madducks]

I picked the Phillies because of Lee and Hamels. Maybe as soon as next year if they make the right moves. Firing Amaro could be one of the right moves.

[Controller Jacobs]

I picked the Phillies. I expect Texas and the Angels to be good for the next five years, and what Houston is really willing to spend is currently an unknown.

[Erik]

The NL doesn't have anywhere near as many good teams as the AL, so that's a point in the Phillies' favor. As is that there are no Marlins in the AL West.

The Phillies have a better base to build from but the Astros have more upside in their system. Until the Astros show signs of having SP they can ride in the playoffs, my money is on the Phillies.

[TranaGreg]

I picked the Phillies. I expect Texas and the Angels to be good for the next five years, and what Houston is really willing to spend is currently an unknown.

This... If the range was 2016-2021 I might have gone with Houston tho.

[joncarlos]

The Phillies have a better base to build from but the Astros have more upside in their system. Until the Astros show signs of having SP they can ride in the playoffs, my money is on the Phillies.

Yeah, I think I'm going with the Phillies too and this is why. The Phillies may not have anything else besides Hamels and Lee, but I don't even know who you'd consider a reliable starter for the Astros right now, and those usually take time to develop.

2014 is either going to be a push (nobody makes it) or go to the Phillies
2015 is probably going to be a push (nobody makes it) or go to the Phillies
2016 is probably a toss up
2017-18 probably favor HOU but it's too early to tell right now

[Don Quixote]

I picked the Phillies. I expect Texas and the Angels to be good for the next five years, and what Houston is really willing to spend is currently an unknown.

Except that the Angels aren't good now and don't seem to have much in the pipeline. For all the grief I've given Billy Beane over the years about having a mystique built on three pitchers a decade ago, he has found a way to keep the A's more than competitive the last two years, and I think he'll continue to find ways. The Angels have the money, Oakland has the way (and Texas has both).

I went with Houston. They seem to have their act together more than the Phillies, who will probably keep trying the Band-Aid approach.