Trading Trout...

[Mithrandir]

14 team..mixed..5x5..team below...

I need power as i am in 12th place in HR's..I have a huge lead in SB's..

I trade Trout ($11 in 2014)

for

Nelson Cruz ($33 in 2014)
Bautista (cannot be kept in 2014)

Thoughts?

Thanks!

C- Rosario
1b - Freeman
2b - Pedroia
3b - Frazier
SS - Segura
OF - Trout
OF - Craig
OF - Rios
OF - Ibanez
Util - Leonys Martin/Byrd
Util - Kendrick
Bench - Martin/Byrd


SP - Hamels, Medlen, Stults, Gio, Bumgarner, An. Sanchez, Er. Ramirez
RP - Rivera, Frieri, Street, Cishek
DL - Peavy, Beachy

[Mithrandir]

That's not even close to a return I'd want for Trout, especially since Cruz is staring at a 50 game suspension. An $11 Trout is perhaps THE most valuable commodity in your league. It would take one of those offers you can't refuse to pry him away. Even if you need power, it's not like the guy is some slug in the HR department.

I know..but just how much is Trout worth? I feel most people, myself included, seem to over value him and want everything and the kitchen sink...i don't know if i can get more than this for Trout...but i think i need to make a deal to have a chance to win..

Instead of starting Trout and Martin/Kendrick..i would have Cruz and Bautista..not enough ??

And will anyone really be suspended this year? I guess it's not worth the chance?

Thanks..

[bryanbutler]

i don't know if i can get more than this for Trout

if you can't get more than this for trout then you should just hold on to him. at $11, he's a cornerstone for either a contending or rebuilding team.

[BuckyBuckner]

From the other thread about suspensions it was said by the MLBPA that suspensions won't take place until 2014. Whether that is actually what happens, who knows.

I assume someone like Chris Davis is at a cheap contract so you can't get him. What about Miggy? Or CarGo? I know not all teams are in a position to help your specific needs in a trade (or even dumping) but in this case I imagine everyone will listen when you are trading Trout.

[joncarlos]

For an $11 Trout, I want two top-25 players minimum.

[Mithrandir]

For an $11 Trout, I want two top-25 players minimum.

But those two players have to provide home run pop..don't Cruz and Bautista fit the bill? They wouldn't be top 25 for what i need?

[BuckyBuckner]

But those two players have to provide home run pop..don't Cruz and Bautista fit the bill? They wouldn't be top 25 for what i need?

Cruz is a little too streaky and definitely too injury prone to really bank on giving you the numbers you need. I think that's why everyone is balking at this trade.

Preseason ranking by Yahoo Bautista was #15 and this year he #40. Cruz is #104 preseason and #37 this year. If you go based on HR totals they are in the top 25 but so is Adam Dunn and guys like Chris Carter, Brandon Moss and Colby Rasmus.

[joncarlos]

But those two players have to provide home run pop..don't Cruz and Bautista fit the bill? They wouldn't be top 25 for what i need?

If you have insurmountable leads in R and AVG, then sure, go for it, but those guys are both pretty 1 dimensional, and you're losing more than just SB in Trout.

If Trout hits 12 HR the rest of the way, and you trade him for for 2 guys who combine for 30, how many points does that realistically get you?

You're losing an 11 dollar Trout for next season for 60-70 games worth of production. Maybe 2 guys isn't even enough, but I'd probably move him for something like Miggy and Beltre.

[Mithrandir]

If you have insurmountable leads in R and AVG, then sure, go for it, but those guys are both pretty 1 dimensional, and you're losing more than just SB in Trout.

If Trout hits 12 HR the rest of the way, and you trade him for for 2 guys who combine for 30, how many points does that realistically get you?

You're losing an 11 dollar Trout for next season for 60-70 games worth of production. Maybe 2 guys isn't even enough, but I'd probably move him for something like Miggy and Beltre.

Thanks Jon..both Miggy and Beltre? wow.. too bad i can't get that in my league (two different owners)..

Bautista has scored only 4 less runs than Trout, so he isn't really 1 dimensional..but i know what you are driving at.

[revo]

If Cruz gets suspended, then you're not only killing your chances this season, but next season also.

[mjl]

so what is Chris Davis at? That seems like the obvious choice unless you're just ignoring future value.

[dannahann]

I think you absolutely have to get substantially more to trade the consensus #1 overall keeper asset going and at just $11. Sure you'll get a little bump in HR from here on out IF the assets you get stay healthy (neither has a spectacular history of health) and Cruz continues to produce under the PED microscope. But an $11 Trout should be netting Cabrera Cano types + a significant 2nd player. You mentioned Cruz might supplant Kendrick in your regular lineup so you have to figure that in when assessing how much of a bump you are getting here. Fantasy Pros updated their compiled rest of season projections on 7/13. The 3 sources who contribute all updated on that date, ZIPs, Accuscore, and Razzball. I'm not saying they are 100% right but it is a current best guess of what we might expect going forward and here's how things sort out:
Trout and Kendrick (combined) are slotted to hit 0.290 (157/542), score 84R, hit 18 HR, knock in 72, and swipe 23 bags.
Bautista and NCruz (combined) are slotted to hit 0.265 (123/464), score 75R, hit 29 HR, knock in 81, and swipe 6 bags.
So you pick up 11 HR and 9 RBI, while losing a tick or two off your BA, lose 9R and 17 bags, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY lose an $11 Trout and get ZERO keep value back??
If you advertise your intentions and let the offers roll in you should net so much more. If your league lowballs you (as this offer looks to be) keep him and set up your championship dynasty.

[Mithrandir]

so what is Chris Davis at? That seems like the obvious choice unless you're just ignoring future value.

Davis will be a $6 keeper next year..He's not getting dealt by his owner.

[Mithrandir]

I think you absolutely have to get substantially more to trade the consensus #1 overall keeper asset going and at just $11. Sure you'll get a little bump in HR from here on out IF the assets you get stay healthy (neither has a spectacular history of health) and Cruz continues to produce under the PED microscope. But an $11 Trout should be netting Cabrera Cano types + a significant 2nd player. You mentioned Cruz might supplant Kendrick in your regular lineup so you have to figure that in when assessing how much of a bump you are getting here. Fantasy Pros updated their compiled rest of season projections on 7/13. The 3 sources who contribute all updated on that date, ZIPs, Accuscore, and Razzball. I'm not saying they are 100% right but it is a current best guess of what we might expect going forward and here's how things sort out:
Trout and Kendrick (combined) are slotted to hit 0.290 (157/542), score 84R, hit 18 HR, knock in 72, and swipe 23 bags.
Bautista and NCruz (combined) are slotted to hit 0.265 (123/464), score 75R, hit 29 HR, knock in 81, and swipe 6 bags.
So you pick up 11 HR and 9 RBI, while losing a tick or two off your BA, lose 9R and 17 bags, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY lose an $11 Trout and get ZERO keep value back??
If you advertise your intentions and let the offers roll in you should net so much more. If your league lowballs you (as this offer looks to be) keep him and set up your championship dynasty.

Wow..thanks for the great post.

i have pretty much moved on from this potential offer...

Thanks for all of the advice.

[Mithrandir]

How about this offer that i would propose:

Trout ($11 in 2014), Todd Frazier ($9 in 2014), An. Sanchez ($16 in 2014) and Medlen ($6 in 2014)

for

Miggy and Kershaw (both over $60 in 2014)