When's it too late...

[overkill94]

to consider yourself a contender? Coming out of the gate in my 12-team NL-only keeper I thought I had a chance at the title, but injuries and ineffectiveness have me way back in 11th place right now. But, I just got Kemp back, Forsythe finally got his season started and has been hitting well, Ryan Sweeney has been a pleasant pick-up, and eventually I'll be getting guys like Dejesus, Tabata, Ludwick, and Niese back. Here are the point totals as of today:

104.5
77.5
77.5
74.5
74
69.5
57.5
57
52
49
47.5
39.5

Obviously I have no chance at the title anymore, but the rest of the money spots (top 5) seem up for grabs. Question is, is it too late in the season to make up that many points? I'm not planning on making any go-for-it trades, but the dump offers I've been getting have been underwhelming so I'd probably fare just as well making a deal at the deadline if my situation has not improved.

[virgonomic]

You need to look at the totals and estimate how many points you can make up. I have been doing this in my AL league. I'm 9 points out of 4th, so I'm gunning for the money, but won't sell the future to do it. I just made 2 big trades and may move Altuve or Ellsbury for a keeper.

[dannahann]

If it's a yahoo league you can 'model' it pretty easily and see where your are projected (per yahoo's rest of season stats) to finish in each category by doing nothing using their evaluate trade tool. Download the current accrued league stats and combine them with what yahoo expects will happen from here on out (you'll have to evaluate a phantom trade - use P with similar expected IP and stats). Once compiled, run a roto score on the results. Takes about 10 minutes in excel. Then (if the modeled end of season standings put you close) you can evaluate some trades into the model that accomplish your money slot objective. Worst case is the model shows you have little chance this year and you can work hard on building your keepers.

[overkill94]

Apparently my league website has one of those things and about a month ago it still had me winning the whole thing, but when I checked it this time it still has me finishing way down. Plus, my list of injuries now includes Cueto (again) and my surprising pick-up Sweeney. I think it's time to dump after all.

[Judge Jude]

yeah, that's grim - and most of the names you see as potential revival guys, uh....

I am 9th in a

101

86.5

72.5
69
68.5
66
65.5
61

I ain't winning this thing, but I think that's more of a "is it too late"

[virgonomic]

It's too early to dump given that you are 11.5 points out of third. I have made this mistake before ans learned that all it takes if for a few players to get hot and your team can surge. You will be able to get as much now as you will in a month if you have players contending teams want.

Two teams are clearly out of it this year and no one has contacted me despite me letting the league know that my cheap 2014 guys including a $1 Profar are available. I always wanted to dump early to get my pick of keepers.

[Judge Jude]

It's too early to dump given that you are 11.5 points out of third.

agreed for me, but this doesn't help overkill's cause

[virgonomic]

to consider yourself a contender? Coming out of the gate in my 12-team NL-only keeper I thought I had a chance at the title, but injuries and ineffectiveness have me way back in 11th place right now. But, I just got Kemp back, Forsythe finally got his season started and has been hitting well, Ryan Sweeney has been a pleasant pick-up, and eventually I'll be getting guys like Dejesus, Tabata, Ludwick, and Niese back. Here are the point totals as of today:

104.5
77.5
77.5
74.5
74
69.5
57.5
57
52
49
47.5
39.5

Obviously I have no chance at the title anymore, but the rest of the money spots (top 5) seem up for grabs. Question is, is it too late in the season to make up that many points? I'm not planning on making any go-for-it trades, but the dump offers I've been getting have been underwhelming so I'd probably fare just as well making a deal at the deadline if my situation has not improved.

30 points is a lot unless you had some studs returning to give your team a big boost. I still feel you should stay in it until you are out of it. Give your team a month and see where they are. No need to dump before August unless there is a must-have keeper you want.

[overkill94]

I tried to dump early but wasn't thrilled with the offers I was getting. Kemp is the one stud I got back and I'll be getting some more useful pieces back eventually (Dejesus, Ludwick, Cueto, Niese) but they probably won't get me where I need to be. One team has pulled away for 1st so I doubt I'll get that big haul I was hoping for, but I should be able to get some nice pieces for Kershaw, Kemp, R. Soriano, AGon, and Aramis near the deadline.