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from Rich Lederer
You should print this and put this in your draft day notes folder as well
You should print this and put this in your draft day notes folder as well
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Do some of you really take this stuff into account when managing your fantasy teams?
and more importantly does it make a difference? or do you just read this stuff for fun?"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth." -
It has to weigh in, was has to be taken into account as well is the players history. Is he a guy who buckles down with runners on (will have a career with good LOB %) much of this is fairly consistant, guys who CAN pitch well from the stretch. It's the outliers with little history that you have to take into account a regresion to the norm --unless countered by a growth in skill.Badges? We don't need no stinkin' badges!Comment
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I end up using that lower right quadrant to look at late round/low $$ gambles because those guys bounce back up somewhatComment
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Does it help you WIN money? And do you take the time to look at whether this stuff actually DID help your team after the season is over?Originally posted by eldiablo505
For example..based on this chart you decide to take Pitchers A,B,C, and D..after the season do you look back and see if these pitchers performed to the level you thought they would based on the data?
I am asking this seriously, not being a weisenheimer."I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."Comment
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and once again you misquote me: i NEVER said fantasy baseball is ALL luck. For the 1000th time I said: "Luck plays a larger role than most like to admit".Originally posted by eldiablo505
Maybe put that in your sig so you don't misquote me again
"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."Comment
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well, if you look at the top ten qualified starting pitchers by BABIP who had below 70% LOB% in 2009 (that lower right quadrant that JC referred to), you have:Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
Pavano: 5.10 ERA, 4.00 FIP
Lowe: 4.67 ERA, 4.06 FIP
Hammel: 4.33 ERA, 3.71 FIP
Livan Hernandez: 5.44 ERA, 4.44 FIP
Maholm: 4.44 ERA, 3.83 FIP
Nolasco: 5.06 ERA, 3.35 FIP
Moehler: 5.47 ERA, 4.75 FIP
Pelfrey: 5.03 ERA, 4.39 FIP
Brett Anderson: 4.06 ERA, 3.69 FIP
Scherzer: 4.12 ERA, 3.87 FIP
And their 2010 numbers:
Pavano: .281 BABIP, 74% LOB%, 3.75 ERA, 4.02 FIP
Lowe: .307 BABIP, 74% LOB%, 4.00 ERA, 3.89 FIP
Hammel: .328 BABIP, 69% LOB%, 4.81 ERA, 3.70 FIP
Livan: .287 BABIP, 73% LOB%, 3.66 ERA, 3.95 FIP
Maholm: .327 BABIP, 65% LOB%, 5.10 ERA, 4.18 FIP
Nolasco: .316 BABIP, 72% LOB%, 4.51 ERA, 3.86 FIP
Moehler: .323 BABIP, 71% LOB%, 4.92 ERA, 4.67 FIP
Pelfrey: .300 BABIP, 74% LOB%, 3.66 ERA, 3.82 FIP
Anderson: .294 BABIP, 75% LOB%, 2.80 ERA, 3.21 FIP
Scherzer: .297 BABIP, 75% LOB%, 3.50 ERA, 3.71 FIP
so the only two that got worse were Hammel and Maholm, who would also be on the list this year since they had the 3rd and 4th worst BABIP. Everyone else got better, sometimes by a lot.
- MikeIn the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.Comment
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There is no one in the southeast quad that I want on my team even for a buck....it took me two years to learn that about Zack Duke.Comment
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There are "unlucky" pitchers like Dave Bush who keep having a poor strand pct, and figure to have that even out. Until you realize, he just doesn't pitch as well with men on base.
I think there are far fewer "clutch" guys, who can annually yield a lot of runners but keep them off the scoreboard. Mediocre K rates, high strand rates, and other numbers are warning flags.
I spent 15+ years thinking that SPs were nothing more than dart tosses. And if you go by primitive stats like ERA, it's going to feel that way. Once you dig deeper, your results are much more accurate - granting that they always will be a fickle and frustrating beast. It's about percentages.finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1Comment
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so it's kind of like poker eh? AA is supposed to win over 72 off, but sometimes it loses.If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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All these stats, all these numbers, you can tell them all to shut up. You need to remember that when it comes down to it it's about heart, character and intestinal fortitude. Can your BABIP throw a 99MPH heater in the black with a full count, bottom of the ninth and 50,000 people screaming at him? Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit. This is all Billy Beane's fault - don't know why he ever wrote his damn book; I sure as hell didn't read it because it was complete hooey, an insult to the game of baseball. Someone should write a book exposing Moneyball for what it was... oh wait, somebody did... The Beauty of Short Hops
/JoeMorganComment
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