Please Review Sheep's Keepers, A Few Tough Decisions Here...

[senorsheep]

League Format: 12-team NL-only 4x4, using K's instead of WHIP. Unlimited keepers.

Situation: Starting pitching will be extremely thin in this year's auction, as is the third base market. Owners will have a lot of money to spend.

Note: I've been very successful the past five seasons loading up on starting pitching and dominating Wins and K's, often at the expense of ERA. It seems to work in this league.

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Possible keepers:

OF - Josh Willingham, $4 (keep)

3B - Ryan Zimmerman, $25 (keep - no extension)
CR - Chris Johnson, $15 (???)

Normally, I don't like to lock up a position and lose flexibility in the auction, but, like I said, the 3B market will be extremely thin, so there is value here. There are a lot of 1B's available in the pool, but not very good ones. Chris Johnson strikes me as a guy who could easily fall into a hole. I floated CJ as offseason trade bait, but got no worthy offers. Thoughts? Keep him or cut him?

2B - Daniel Murphy, $1 (keep if he wins the starting 2B job in NY)

P - Roy Oswalt, $20
P - Ted Lilly, $21

I don't like devoting this much salary to two starters; I'll probably keep one or the other. And the one will likely be Oswalt. Given the thin SP market, should I consider keeping both? The argument against: I need $$$ for closers and offense. And if I do keep only one, can anybody make a case for Lilly over Oswalt?

P - Jair Jurrjens, $8

Another tough one for me. He was money in 2008 and 2009. He was pretty average last year, though arm trouble probably had a lot to do with that. Anybody expecting a rebound? Enough to justify $8?

P - Ian Kennedy, $5 (keep)

P - Kyle McClellan, $5 (???)

Converted reliever, now taking over the Wainwright spot in the St. Louis rotation. Good reliever, having a very good spring so far, pitching for what will probably be a winning team. But $5 for a guy who's never started before? Probably a good chance he tires out in the fall.

P - Barry Zito, $2 (???)

So mediocre, yet so cheap. Good pitcher's park that masks his flyball problems, questionable defense behind him, questionable supporting offense. He was well worth two bucks last year before his brutal August. There's talk of The Giants becoming dissatisfied with him, but I can't imagine them dumping him outright and eating all the dough they owe him through 2013. Would they move him to the pen? What would you do?

P - Chris Narveson, $2 (leaning towards keep)

A tough start in 2010 murdered his stats, but he was actually quite good the last six weeks of last season, and he can strike'em out.

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Thanks in advance for your input, guys. Much appreciated!

[joncarlos]

You can keep Willingham even though he plays for the A's?

With Ks and no WHIP I think a mediocre SP like Zito has more value than a good MR like Gregerson. So I'd lean towards keeping Zito.

I would toss back Chris Johnson - if he does go for more than 15 then someone else overpaid. I just think there's too much risk. Go cheap CI/1B and spend at other positions if you have to.

Keep Narveson. Keep Kennedy. Keep Oswalt. I know Lilly looks good but he was SO lucky last year (GB% under 30, BABIP of .247) that I am not sure I see him earning $20 even with inflation, so toss him back.

Jurrjens was pretty close to luck neutral last year. Maybe his ERA should have been a few points lower. I still like his upside even with Uggla at 2B and Chipper at 3B (that's not what I call good defensive support) so I'd lean towards keeping him.

And I'd keep Murphy if he has any shot at all of winning the 2B job.

[senorsheep]

You can keep Willingham even though he plays for the A's?

LOL. Wow. I completely missed that trade. I guess I won't be keeping him.

Thanks!

[Gregg]

I pretty much agree with JC. Except I think Jurrgens is a good keep for $8. Zito is the one I do not care for. Maybe you can trade him or package him and trade him?

[chancellor]

No WHIP? Yeah, keep Zito for sure. He has a two-year track record of consistent WHIP, consistent ERA and xERA, and K/IP. In your format, I'll bet he's an $8 pitcher, easy. Same for Narveson, Kennedy, Jurrjens and Oswalt. I'd not keep Lilly at $21. Without WHIP, his value goes down a few bucks, in my view. Zimmerman is a slam dunk keep.

Johnson...I'm inclined to keep him in your league. He has real power, and his BA doesn't look like it'll suck (say, .270ish), and he'll likely hit in a good RBI position. .270-20-70 seems OK for $15 in a deep 4x4 league. If inflation's going to be steep, you could do worse at 3B. A lot worse.