Gerrit Cole coming up

[cardboardbox]

JC, any idea what changed from 2012 to 2013 regarding Cole's K rate? He did fine in AA/AAA last year. 9.15 k/9 last year in AA but this year something has changed.

[Bodhizefa]

JC, any idea what changed from 2012 to 2013 regarding Cole's K rate? He did fine in AA/AAA last year. 9.15 k/9 last year in AA but this year something has changed.

The announcers last night noted that he and the organization decided that he should pitch to contact more in the interim. So he's been trying to last longer in games by not striking guys out is what they're saying. And that always works out well

[joncarlos]

JC, any idea what changed from 2012 to 2013 regarding Cole's K rate? He did fine in AA/AAA last year. 9.15 k/9 last year in AA but this year something has changed.

A little bit of AAA boredom, a little bit of the Pirates trying to encourage him to pitch to contact, and a little more focus on honing his secondary stuff.

[cardboardbox]

thanks for the info guys.

Yeah, cant see how this change helps. Most days that Cole gets 2 k's is not going to be a very good day for him. Maybe he'll settle in around 6 k/9 but that only works if a pitcher doesnt walk many and can keep the ball on the ground. Two things I doubt Cole can do right now.

[Moonlight J]

groundball rates in 2012 & 2013 in MILB level was the same. Swinging strikeout rate dropped from 18% to 10%

http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=543037

[joncarlos]

cole.jpg

Hopefully this works. It's Cole's strike zone map from yesterday. Notice how most of the yellow squares (swing and miss) are in the middle of the zone. I don't know if he can keep that up. He really didn't get any swings and misses outside the zone.

[james33]

Part of the 'problem' is that he really fills up the zone. Some of his pitches were middle middle, which works when you're throwing 99. Other times he did a good job pounding the bottom of the zone, so the potential is definitely there for good numbers even if the K rate isn't what you'd expect. I liked the changeup a lot. The slider almost had too much movement, it was more of a chase pitch because he was struggling to keep it in the zone. But again, he threw a couple that were nice and tight and stayed nasty in the zone. So, overall, work in progress, stuff is definitely electric if inconsistent, Ks aren't going to be what we expect but his control was excellent and command was pretty good. And he'll still get some Ks when he just reaches back and overpowers someone.

I will say, a lot of the hits he gave up were bleeders and bloops, but that's the kind of thing that can happen when you fill up the zone and your control is better than your command. Luckily for him the Pirates' defense is generally pretty good.

Great writeup, thanks!

1) How are you defining "control" vs. "command"?

2) Sometimes young pitchers' K rates do improve in the first few seasons. It might stand to reason that ove time, some pitchers hit spots better to avoid middle-middle, and then their K numbers start to go up. I imagine hitting spots might be a more easily learned skill than increasing the break on one's breaking pitches or increasing the speed differential between one's fastball and offspeed pitches? Really not sure; I'd love to learn more about how top prospect pitchers do improve. Some youngsters hit the ground running (e.g., Shelby Miller this year) while others develop more slowly into studs.

[Moonlight J]

Control = finding the strike zone
Command = locating within the strike zone

[joncarlos]

Great writeup, thanks!

1) How are you defining "control" vs. "command"?

2) Sometimes young pitchers' K rates do improve in the first few seasons. It might stand to reason that ove time, some pitchers hit spots better to avoid middle-middle, and then their K numbers start to go up. I imagine hitting spots might be a more easily learned skill than increasing the break on one's breaking pitches or increasing the speed differential between one's fastball and offspeed pitches? Really not sure; I'd love to learn more about how top prospect pitchers do improve. Some youngsters hit the ground running (e.g., Shelby Miller this year) while others develop more slowly into studs.

Jason already answered the command/control debate very well. Cole didn't miss the zone by accident very often, but when his location was off he missed in the middle of the plate.

It's hard to say why young pitchers improve. Better coaching in the majors? Better guys calling the pitches? In Cole's case, he still has some developing to do. He should improve his slider and his change. If he stayed in the minors until he was 25 then he could come up with 3 elite pitches, but he's in the majors now and learning on the job. As his off-speed stuff gets better, he will strike out more guys.

Velocity rarely increases once you reach the majors; usually by 24-25 years old, you're already starting to lose your velocity. But you can hone your location, your sequencing and your off-speed pitches.

Cole has a chance to hit the ground running like Miller because he has the same overpowering fastball that he can use to cover up a lot of mistakes. It's not a guarantee, but he has a chance.

[Bodhizefa]

As far as deceptive deliveries go, Cole doesn't exactly have much in the way of a deceiving fastball motion in his delivery. There's no hiding his fastball from the hitter like Cingrani does so well (or like Lincecum used to thrive on).

I like his stuff, but Cole doesn't need to give up striking out batters just to try to speed things up. The Tigers tried that with a top prospect one time, and Rick Porcello is just now realizing some five years later that it wasn't in his best interest to do so. It's weird, because the Pirates are a pretty smart organization -- why in the world would they coach him to pitch to contact? Cole's delivery already allows hitters to see the pitches a bit more easily, so why help them out even more by throwing them so many hittable pitches?

Cole will intrigue me a lot more when he starts racking up some K's. As long as he's a pitch to contact pitcher, I'm not interested in him at all (especially for fantasy purposes).

[joncarlos]

It's just my speculation that the Pirates asked him to work on pitching to contact. Maybe they asked him to work on fastball command, which would look pretty similar.

[cardboardbox]

Cole sure looks like a nice keeper now! 6 IP 12 K's today. And it happened to be the first game I've activated him for. Yes, I had him stashed all this time but with Fernandez being shut down I had a huge need for K's. Cole came through nicely!