Harper 2012 vs Segura 2013

[onejayhawk]

I know. It is comparing apples to oranges.

That said, is Segura looking like the same sort of value as Harper last year?

J

[overkill94]

Not sure about the comparison, but I would expect Segura to slow down quite a bit. He never hit more than 10 homers in any minor league season so I think he'll end up with about 15. The steals will slow down a bit simply because I don't expect him to maintain the .390 OBP.

My fearless forecast:
.280 BA, 90 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 45 SB

[james33]

Seems like a reasonable forecast by overkill94. I think he'll finish with BA of more like .290-.295 since he's at .351 after 25% of the season, but that's quibbling.

Comparing him to Bryce is apples to oranges, but both are quite yummy. Bryce would seem to be much more of a sure thing, while Segura's power could turn out to be flukey. And pitchers could adjust now that they know the "no power" scouting report on Segura is outdated.

But if overkill94's forecast turns out to be right, that kind of season - from a SS - makes Segura very valuable. How many players at any position total 60 HR+SB? Not likely Bryce who has already slowed down on the basepaths (a wise career move on Bryce's part? I notice sluggers with decent speed, after a few years of establishing themselves sometimes slow down their SBA to keep themselves healthy and racking up more important stats; perhaps Bryce is a quicker learner than most)

[onejayhawk]

Yeah. Given the base, .280 seems pretty low. If you said .280, 60 R, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 30 SB the rest of the way, you would get less of an argument.

That said, his history is of good BABIP. I dont see it falling much below .350. He may not be a pull hitter, but the ball jumps off the bat.

J

[Judge Jude]

The power isn't real, but I wouldn't bet against the rest. He'll hit .300 and steal a nice number of bases....

[Sharky]

The power isn't real, but I wouldn't bet against the rest. He'll hit .300 and steal a nice number of bases....

Just FYI, JJ, your PM inbox is full.

[onejayhawk]

The power isn't real, but I wouldn't bet against the rest. He'll hit .300 and steal a nice number of bases....

Five of seven HR have been opposite field and "Just enough" to clear the fence. That is not sustainable.

J

[chancellor]

Five of seven HR have been opposite field and "Just enough" to clear the fence. That is not sustainable.

Even I, as the most optimistic Brewer fan, realize Segura isn't going to maintain a 25 HR pace. That's obvious. But with hitting in Miller Park for half his games, 15-18 is within reach, IMO. But his real fantasy value lies in his SBs; 30 more SBs are well within reach. At that production rate, Segura is worth well over $30 in a 11-team NL only league.

[onejayhawk]

The funny thing is that he had three HR before his first SB. Plus there is the famous steal of 1B, for which he gets nothing.

J