Pull the Trigger: Cargo/Cobb for Jones/Moore

[willthethrill]

ESPN standard 14 team mixed H2H league.

My offense rocks, but my pitching is so-so. My top starter is Fister with a bunch of Bailey-types after that. I was offered Adam Jones and Matt Moore in return for Carlos Gonzalez and Alex Cobb. Seems like a sell-high a bit on Cobb for me and the step down form CarGo to Jones is less than the gain I would get picking up Moore.

Do you agree that I should accept?

Thanks.

[virgonomic]

Agreed, this is a net gain for you.

[chancellor]

I'd do it, though I don't think Cobb is going to drop off much.

[Hornsby]

Do it...although I do agree it's not a huge gain for you, but it is a gain.

[cavebird]

I think it hardly matters if you do the deal or not. Young pitchers are incredibly fickle and since you didn't mention keeper status, I assume redraft. I don't know if Moore will outperform Cobb the rest of the way. I think they might be relatively close. On the other hand, I think the same about Jones and CarGo. Make the trade if you like, but I don't think it changes your situation much.

[Stephen]

I'd do it. I've been beating the Moore drum for years saying that I thought he'd win a Cy Young award sooner rather than later. I gotta stick with my investment there.

[joncarlos]

I would do it, but you're buying very high on Moore. I think he's going to outpitch Cobb the rest of the way by a good margin. I love CarGo so it hurts to lose him.

[red]

I wouldn't do it. You're giving up the clear-cut best player in the trade. I would always rather have the best player in any trade.

Additionally, Moore so far has an abnormally low BABIP (.197) and an abnormally high LOB% (92%). As those stats normalize, Moore's ERA won't look as nice. I don't know all the ins-and-outs of FIP, but Moore's xFIP is 4.24 while Cobb's is 2.89, indicating Cobb has actually pitched much better than Moore so far.

So you're giving up the better hitter and arguably the better pitcher in the deal.