Large dump trade (NL-Only)

[overkill94]

12-team 5x5 (OBP) keeper league

Since my team's been pretty hopeless from the start, I'm looking to make a dump trade. In this league it takes a lot to get studly young talent, so this offer is fairly standard for our league:

I give:
Kershaw - $40
Kemp - $46
Cueto - expiring contract
Molina - expiring contract
Tabata - $1 through 2015

I get:
Oscar Taveras - $3, doesn't start until he's called up, then two more years after that (with a minimum 2-year extension option at $5 per year going into the last year)
Trevor Rosenthal - $4 through 2015 (same extension option)
Travis D'Arnaud - $13, doesn't start until he's called up, then two more years after that
Miguel Olivo - filler
Derrick Robinson - filler
Edinson Volquez - probably filler, but he is at $4 through 2015

I originally tried to include Jon Jay (expiring contract) instead of Tabata, but this was his counter-offer. Is a $1 Tabata worth splitting hairs over? He's bounced back a bit this year but still doesn't have a starting gig right now or in the future (that I can tell).

After making this trade I'll probably fall back to 11th or 12th by season's end so I'll be able to keep either 10 or 9 guys. Right now my probable keepers are
Ludwick - $4
J. Chacin - $1
Archie Bradley - $3
Niese - $10 (?)
ARam - $31 (?)
Dejesus - $7 (?)
Gast - $5 (?)
Matt Davidson - $1 (?)
Logan Forsythe - $1 (?)
Eovaldi - $1 (?)
Noah Syndergaard - $5 (?)

Plus, even after this trade I'll have guys like Rafael Soriano, Jon Jay, ARam, and Adrian Gonzalez to offer so I'll probably be able to swing another 1 or 2 keepers.

With my thin keeper list for next year - even after adding Taveras, Rosenthal, and D'Arnaud - should I hold off on adding Tabata to the deal? It took a bit of convincing to get him to give up Taveras in the first place.

Also, I could have Rendon (also $13) or Soler ($11) instead of D'Arnaud if you guys think they would be better options.

Thanks!

[mjl]

do you play one or two catchers?

[schlesinj]

I love Tavares as much as the next guy (an owner myself) but that seems like a lot to give up for him. D'Arnaud is nice when when he is free, but 13 will be ok for a few years but not a great. Is that typical to give up that much talent for a top prospect.

[overkill94]

Yeah, 2 catchers

I don't remember the exact trade, but last year there was a trade with Kershaw and Reyes as the main pieces and the return was a $14 Harper whose clock had already started.

Problem is, this owner has a monopoly on quality young keepers so it's either give everything up to him to get a stud and some other quality pieces or settle for a lesser prospect from one of the other contenders.

[Fresno Bob]

That seems like a lot of talent going out from your end, but if thats what it takes. How pissed will your league be from this dump?

[Lucky]

The earlier in the year, the more you should get for your studs. I'd say you are a little light.

[Judge Jude]

Agreed on the timing, and on the "will your rivals be pissed?"

even if this is really the only game in town, I'd at least be knocking on the doors of others in the top 5 if you aren't already.

D'Arnaud at 13 doesn't excite, so basically 4 big stars for one super-cheap uber-prospect and a wonderful arm in Rosenthal but how soon will he get a plum role?

Can you push for this deal minus Molina and Olivo pieces, then move Molina to a team with a terrible C and a nice prospect? That would make me more comfortable if I were you...

[Fresno Bob]

Yeah, 2 catchers

I don't remember the exact trade, but last year there was a trade with Kershaw and Reyes as the main pieces and the return was a $14 Harper whose clock had already started.

Problem is, this owner has a monopoly on quality young keepers so it's either give everything up to him to get a stud and some other quality pieces or settle for a lesser prospect from one of the other contenders.

None of the guys you are getting are harper

[mjl]

None of the guys you are getting are harper

What he said. And what Jude said. You're getting prospects and a guy who has a good 8th-inning role right now on a team with a closer and another closer who's still under contract for next year. There are a lot of Jansens and Gregersons and Venterseses who have very good numbers but no closing job, and yes Rosenthal would be worth more than $4/year but that's not enough. I would really try to avoid dealing the best pitcher in the NL, one of the best catchers, one of the best outfielders, and another great pitcher without getting a single piece that you know will be a big help in 2013. Harper at $14, even with a clock going, would be enough -- you'd have multiple years at 24 or so in a league where Kemp goes for 46. Taveras might be that guy, or he might be just very good, or he may not find a way to break into the Cardinals outfield for a while.

If that's really what it costs to make a deal in your league, sure, but unless that Kershaw and Reyes trade from last year had three more All-Star+ players in it, you're getting reamed compared to that deal.

[schlesinj]

Another point is given the talent you are giving up that means you have a decent team. I am in a similar situation where all my players got hurt/or underperforming and I am just not looking at the standings.

[overkill94]

I was able to look up the trade. Last May it was:

Kershaw
J. Upton
Reyes
AJ Ellis
C. Zambrano

for

Harper
S. Miller (when his prospect status was in doubt)
S. Hairston
Dolis
Gee

[overkill94]

I'd like to think I could be a contender, but the top 3 teams are all quite strong so at best I would be hoping for 4th or 5th place money and as you can see, my keeper list for next year is not very strong. I could make a couple smaller trades and get some decent keepers, but I've never had that one stud keeper that I was able to extend for a bunch of years. If Taveras pans out like the #2 prospect in baseball should pan out, I'd be able to lock him up for 4 extra years.

Should I ask him to add someone like Yelich as well?

[Hornsby]

I'd like to think I could be a contender, but the top 3 teams are all quite strong so at best I would be hoping for 4th or 5th place money and as you can see, my keeper list for next year is not very strong. I could make a couple smaller trades and get some decent keepers, but I've never had that one stud keeper that I was able to extend for a bunch of years. If Taveras pans out like the #2 prospect in baseball should pan out, I'd be able to lock him up for 4 extra years.

Should I ask him to add someone like Yelich as well?

Sure, ask for the moon, settle for less...you never know what the other side is willing to give unless you ask. If you can get Yelich thrown in with Tavares, Rosenthal, and D'Arnaud, that's a hell of a good deal for you.

[overkill94]

BTW, here's what the top teams have to offer:

1st place - Rizzo $17/3 years left, S. Castro $14/1, M. Ozuna $5/2, C. Gomez $10/1, K. Wong $1/2+, Harvey $2/1 (although he seems to be untouchable), Z. Wheeler $5/1

2nd place - Mesoraco $1/1, Rosario $2/1, Goldschmidt $20/3, Simmons $5/1, Gyorko $1/2, M. Carpenter $2/1, B. Hamilton $1/2+

3rd place - players already included in trade offer plus Freeman $19/3, Alonso $14/2, Arenado $5/2, Harper $14/1, McCutchen $19/1, S. Marte $5/1, Yelich $6/2+, Henderson $5/2, S. Miller $5/1, J. Fernandez $5/2, G. Cole $9/2+

4th place - T. Snider $5/2, A. Craig $15/1, Aoki $10/1, Puig $5/2+, Strasburg $15/1, Teheran $15/2

5th place - M. Adams $1/2, J. Zimmerman $15/1, Brothers $3/2

6th place - Grandal $1/1, E. Cabrera $1/1, Fowler $19/1, Cingrani $5/2, Mujica $1/1

[overkill94]

Well, he won't add in Yelich and is sticking with Tabata over Jay. Are there any opportunities you guys can see with the other top teams to make a deal or should I bite the bullet and go for this one?