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Does anyone still do this? I have MadBum going tonight....I have him on the bench right now...
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"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth." -
For me, it's purely situational. If I have a lead in wins and my ratios suck, I may sit him to reduce the damage of a 6-inning win where gives up 8 ERs. Otherwise, studs play everywhere. -
Coors Field increases pitchers' ERA by something in the neighborhood of 0.75 runs per 9 innings.
In most deep leagues, it's tough to lose the counting stats for only a 0.75 penalty to your ERA (and a similar hit to your WHIP). But in a shallow mixed league where reasonable alternatives might be available, I can certainly imagine benching all but the best pitchers in Coors Field.
It would have to be a very shallow league indeed to find circumstances where it made sense to bench Bumgarner."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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KS, you always have much more sophisticated analysis combined with common sense, so I hesitate to argue w you.
But 0.75 runs seems on the low end to me - last year, 486 R at home by the Rockies vs. 348 R national league average, suggesting a R difference of 138/81=1.7 Runs per 9 innings.
This year, 97 R at home by the Rockies in 19 games vs. 85 R league average in 20 games, suggesting a R difference of 0.9 Runs per 9 innings.
Not sure how to weight this year's limited but more recent sample set vs. last year, but call it 1.4 R, and maybe roughly 80% of R are ER, yielding 1.1 ER impact.
My concern is the wild variance around that extra bad outing. It could just be selective memory, but painful Coors Field starts seem to be really really painful. 5-5 games after 4 innings sometimes mean both starters stay in to do further damage to your ERA. And one lousy outing can have an effect even on your season-end ERA. Of course one win can too, I suppose.
Anyway, I went conservative and benched Cain this week in an NL-only league in which I'm in 2nd or 3rd in ERA, W, K, and WHIP. Partially because Cain had seemed to have gopheritis this year. His start at Coors: 6.1 IP, 10H+BB, 6 ER, 6 Ks, and a W. I'm not sure how to calculate whether this was the right decision!Comment
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Last year was probably an outlier due to historically bad pitching by the home team. I wouldn't draw any conclusions based on 2012 alone.Originally posted by james33 View Post"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
"The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
"The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."Comment
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Unless I pulled it wrong, those numbers were runs scored by Colorado's offense in Coors; nothing to do with Colorado pitching.Originally posted by senorsheep View PostComment
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Oops, my bad.Originally posted by james33 View Post
What Dane said, then. The Giants own The Rockies, and the offense has been largely putrid of late, so Bumgarner's probably a pretty good bet for a win."When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
"The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
"The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."Comment
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Let the studs prove why they are studs. We pay big bucks for them, let them do their jobs. We are talking Bumgarner here not Dylan Gee. Think how bad you feel if you sit him and he throws a one hitter.Comment
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Yeah, I agree. I'd love to see a breakdown on how much Coors effects elite guys vs league avg guys. I'd definitely sit lesser guys at Coors, but a top 10 arm should be worth the risk, because even in Coors, they can put up gems you'll regret missing out on.Originally posted by Gregg View PostLast edited by Sour Masher; 05-17-2013, 05:44 PM.Comment
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I bench any pitcher not named Kershaw in Coors.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Thanks guys....so basically it is a crapshoot
I guess it comes down to which pisses you off more...starting him and he gets crushed or benching him and he throws a gem.....Last edited by Mithrandir; 05-17-2013, 06:11 PM."I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."Comment
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Starting him and he gets crushed should piss you off more. The statistical damage a major disaster has on your pitching numbers vastly outweighs the potential benefit of a decent start.
P.S. Told ya so.Last edited by chancellor; 05-17-2013, 09:02 PM.I'm just here for the baseball.Comment
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.indiana_jones_grail_knight-you-have-chosen-poorly.jpg.Originally posted by Mithrandir View PostThanks guys....so basically it is a crapshoot
I guess it comes down to which pisses you off more...starting him and he gets crushed or benching him and he throws a gem.....“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”
― Albert EinsteinComment
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I always bench starters in Denver. Where would Bumgarner be drafted if he were traded to the Rockies? Think of it that way.Comment
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HAHAHAHAHA..why would it be any different than nearly every other decision i have made this year!!!Originally posted by madducks View Post"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."Comment
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