Andrelton or Rutledge the rest of the way?

[joncarlos]

Fairly shallow mixed league, H2H, 7 hitting categories (AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, R, SB, Total Bases)

I've got Rutledge now but considering he's not a good OBP guy even when he's going well, I'm thinking of making the switch.

[onejayhawk]

Simmons will play.

J

[Stephen]

Yeah, I'd go with Simmons. I do think his move to the 8th spot in the line up will be permanent for a little while, but he will play everyday and maybe with the pressure off he can contribute some decent numbers for you.

[Sharky]

Simmons. No-brainer.

[joncarlos]

Thanks guys. With the Rockies home this week, but possibly snowed out, I thought it might be time to make a move.

[willthethrill]

I'm going to stick with Rutledge. Once the weather gets normal, I think that the Rockies will start putting up some Rockies-like numbers.

[TS Garp]

I'm really surprised at the responses. I would definitely vote for Rutledge. His OBP in the minors was .374 as compared to .352 for Simmons and even with his slow start, Rutledge still has 10 runs and 3 steals. Simmons is a defensive whiz and the offense comes second -- Rutledge has significantly more upside.

[Sharky]

My thinking:
1) Simmons has job security.
2) Simmons has plenty of potential (high contact, speed he has yet to fully harness)
3) The Braves have at least as good a lineup as the Rockies do. Plenty of counting stats.

[TS Garp]

My thinking:
1) Simmons has job security.
2) Simmons has plenty of potential (high contact, speed he has yet to fully harness)
3) The Braves have at least as good a lineup as the Rockies do. Plenty of counting stats.

I like Andrelton, too, but Rutledge had 22 minor league home runs and 31 steals (out of 38 attempts) and went .320/.374/.496 in 855 ab's whereas Simmons had 6 home runs and 54 steals (in 78 attempts) and went .299/.352/.397 in 930 ab's. Simmons is by far the superior defensive player but I think Rutledge has a lot more offensive upside and I think he has more job security than you might think. Again, if Rutledge is on pace to score well over 100 runs and steal more than 30 bases while hitting under .200, imagine what he'll do if he can hit even .270 (which I think he can and will).

[The Dane]

I also vote for Rutledge, and it's not too close. For real baseball, I think Simmons is the more valuable player, but for fantasy, I think Rutledge has the edge, giving them both about 500abs...

OBP: Rutledge .320 > Simmons .300
AVG: Rutledge .285 > Simmons .260
HR: Rutledge 15 > Simmons 6
RBI: Rutledge 58 > Simmons 40
R: Rutledge 69 > Simmons 56
SB: Simmons 16 > Rutledge 12

Rutledge will also have 2B and SS eligibility, for whatever that is worth. Also, Rutledge usually hits at the top of the order, whereas Simmons is usually as the back end.

As a speculation, I also think Simmons doesn't have real job security. If the Braves stay healthy, I think they will be a contender and the only offensive positions at which they could take an upgrade is 3B, SS, or maybe Uggla at 2B. Contenders or not, Rutledge will likely play all season, especially if any one of the following things occur: Tulo gets injured. Nelson flames out. Arenado is not ready. Who can come up from behind him? LeMahieu? Pastornicky alone is pressuring Simmons more than anyone on the Rockies is pressuring Rutledge. This is obviously some analysis that is admittedly pretty far down the page, but you asked.

[cavebird]

I also vote for Rutledge, and it's not too close. For real baseball, I think Simmons is the more valuable player, but for fantasy, I think Rutledge has the edge, giving them both about 500abs...

OBP: Rutledge .320 > Simmons .300
AVG: Rutledge .285 > Simmons .260
HR: Rutledge 15 > Simmons 6
RBI: Rutledge 58 > Simmons 40
R: Rutledge 69 > Simmons 56
SB: Simmons 16 > Rutledge 12

Rutledge will also have 2B and SS eligibility, for whatever that is worth. Also, Rutledge usually hits at the top of the order, whereas Simmons is usually as the back end.

As a speculation, I also think Simmons doesn't have real job security. If the Braves stay healthy, I think they will be a contender and the only offensive positions at which they could take an upgrade is 3B, SS, or maybe Uggla at 2B. Contenders or not, Rutledge will likely play all season, especially if any one of the following things occur: Tulo gets injured. Nelson flames out. Arenado is not ready. Who can come up from behind him? LeMahieu? Pastornicky alone is pressuring Simmons more than anyone on the Rockies is pressuring Rutledge. This is obviously some analysis that is admittedly pretty far down the page, but you asked.

I think you are underestimating Andrelton's power potential, which has been developing. I imagine that he will be around 10 HR's this year, but that's just a guess. I also think you are misstating the pressure. Pastornicky can't play shortstop and he proved it last year. I think the Braves have more or less given up on having him play SS since in 12 games at AAA this year, Pastornicky has DH'd twice, played short twice, and played second eight times. If Simmons went on the DL, Pena would start at short, not Pastornicky. While the Braves don't have many places to upgrade on offense, they don't need to upgrade on offense. If they look for an upgrade, it will probably be a starter. On the other hand, at 11-1, I don't think they are looking to change much right now.

[The Dane]

I think you are underestimating Andrelton's power potential, which has been developing. I imagine that he will be around 10 HR's this year, but that's just a guess.

Honestly, I thought I was aiming low on ALL those stats and I don't anyone, even you, are claiming that Simmons has more power potential from here on out, which is the point of both the original post and my reply.

I also think you are misstating the pressure. Pastornicky can't play shortstop and he proved it last year. I think the Braves have more or less given up on having him play SS since in 12 games at AAA this year, Pastornicky has DH'd twice, played short twice, and played second eight times. If Simmons went on the DL, Pena would start at short, not Pastornicky.

I merely said that Simmons has more pressure than Rutledge and then you laid out a compelling case of how Simmons doesn't have a lot of pressure. Um. Okay. I grant everything you said. It all makes perfect sense and shows a real understanding of the situation in Atlanta. That said, my point remains unassailed and, despite your fine evidence as to Simmons' job security, I still claim that he has less of it than Rutledge, who doesn't even have the pressure of being replaced during a title run. It is Colorado, after all.

While the Braves don't have many places to upgrade on offense, they don't need to upgrade on offense. If they look for an upgrade, it will probably be a starter. On the other hand, at 11-1, I don't think they are looking to change much right now.

I agree. They look fantastic, but teams are ALWAYS looking to improve for the run, and honestly, if I'm a team with a stud at SS, wouldn't targeting a player like Simmons be a PERFECT replacement? A young good-glove SS with a nice profile? He's WAY easier to move than Uggla or Francisco/Johnson. It probably doesn't matter so much in a shallow mixed league, but a lot of Simmons' value comes from the great offense on which he plays, which might dry up if the Braves stay dominant, as I think they can.

[cavebird]

Honestly, I thought I was aiming low on ALL those stats and I don't anyone, even you, are claiming that Simmons has more power potential from here on out, which is the point of both the original post and my reply.



I merely said that Simmons has more pressure than Rutledge and then you laid out a compelling case of how Simmons doesn't have a lot of pressure. Um. Okay. I grant everything you said. It all makes perfect sense and shows a real understanding of the situation in Atlanta. That said, my point remains unassailed and, despite your fine evidence as to Simmons' job security, I still claim that he has less of it than Rutledge, who doesn't even have the pressure of being replaced during a title run. It is Colorado, after all.



I agree. They look fantastic, but teams are ALWAYS looking to improve for the run, and honestly, if I'm a team with a stud at SS, wouldn't targeting a player like Simmons be a PERFECT replacement? A young good-glove SS with a nice profile? He's WAY easier to move than Uggla or Francisco/Johnson. It probably doesn't matter so much in a shallow mixed league, but a lot of Simmons' value comes from the great offense on which he plays, which might dry up if the Braves stay dominant, as I think they can.

1. I agree that Rutledge has more power potential, especially given his home park. I just don't think the difference is that high. I think you underestimate Simmons's run potential---if he hits at the top of the Braves' lineup most of the season, I think he could easily score far more runs than 56, and potentially more than Rutledge, although Rutledge also hits near the top of a good lineup. I think runs are pretty much a toss up.

2. I don't see how any pressure to Simmons is any more than the potential pressure to Rutledge of Arenado being called up and Nelson being moved over to second if he is outhitting Rutledge. No pressure of a title run in Colorado, perhaps, but Arenado is likely to be up at some point, and one of Nelson or Rutledge has to hit the bench.

3. Of course all teams are looking to improve, but I don't see the available stud shortstop that would be a feasible trade target for the Braves. The Braves payroll would not allow a Tulo, Reyes, Hanley type, and I don't see any cost-controlled but nearing free agency shortstops as either being available or any better than Simmons (for example, Andrus may be available due to Profar, but is he any better---or for that matter, any different, than Simmons?). Remember, that the Braves wouldn't move Simmons for Justin Upton. I don't know what it would take to get them to move him.

[Skrappy1]

Andrus may be available due to Profar

Don't forget, Andrus just signed that massive $120 million-ish contract extension with the Rangers. He isn't going anywhere (and I realize that wasn't really your point).

I'd take Rutledge over Simmons too.

[cavebird]

Don't forget, Andrus just signed that massive $120 million-ish contract extension with the Rangers. He isn't going anywhere (and I realize that wasn't really your point).

I'd take Rutledge over Simmons too.

Whoops, forgot about that. He's too expensive for the Braves, too, lol.