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Jiudge Jude's Anatomy of an Auction: the results

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  • Jiudge Jude's Anatomy of an Auction: the results

    preview thread from yesterday is here



    bad news, I suppose, is that I did not get a single sample player listed there except Prado - and frankly, my buying looked nothing like the model there.
    the good news? I'm projected to finish first in one of those calculator thingies that someone checked.

    those on the other thread who suggested prices would be WAY higher than I would hope were mostly right, leading to a frustrating mid-game, an in-auction trade (yes, we allow those), a long end-game wait with more Stars and Scrubs than usual for me, and so on.

    highest prices (this is NL 12-team 5x5) paid today:
    CarGo 50, McCutchen 47, Votto 47, AdGonz 42 (same owner bought the only two star 1Bs available), Kemp 46, BJ Upton 42, Bruce 42, Heyward 40, RZimm 39, Hamels 35, Cain 35, Greinke 33, Papelbon 32, IKennedy 31, RSoriano 30

    yowza

    I walked in with this, 10 players for 91 units

    SP Gee 2
    RPs Betancourt 10, Cishek 10, DHernandez 1
    C MMontero 15, C WRosario 5, 2B DMurphy 1, SS SCastro 15
    OF JUpton 30, GBlanco 2

    needed 13 for 169

    in order of purchase:

    3B CHASE HEADLEY 24-DL - Maybe the first hitter in the bloodbath at roughly uninflated value, especially factoring in 2014-15 at this price. Felt like I had to take what the board gave me. need 12 for 145

    SP COLE HAMELS 35 - For some reason, Cain and Hamels both went about as expected at 35, while the hitters went through the stratosphere. You can see what happened later with Greinke and Kennedy, while Niese and THudson went for 20 apiece (only Latos at 22 felt like maybe a better buy). starting to exhale, need 11 for 110

    2B BRANDON PHILLIPS 28 - Was not a key target, with Murphy/Castro keystone combo already in place, but had to go here. Heck, Weeks went 25 later and Espinosa 19. Maybe this won't be so hard after all! need 10 for 82

    3B-OF MARTIN PRADO 25 - HQ has him uninflated at 26 in these parameters, and I thought I'd sneak in a little lower (high AVG, high AB guys who can play infield and have a little pop are underrated). Still happy to get him given the carnage elsewhere. need 9 for 57

    OF WILL VENABLE 12 - This one stunned me; had him pegged around 17 uninflated. I actually wondered out loud if he was hurt. Just fell thru the cracks, I guess. Then I nominated another I thought might do the same - Kubel. Uh, he went for 26. need 8 for 45

    TRADE: Judge acquires Chris Heisey 13 for a second-round farm pick. I went through a couple of rounds just missing on talent like Ethier and Hart; heck, Cuddyer went for 28 at this point! I started to realize that the remaining talent was not a good match to the available units (I had talked about this here, partly given the no-Astros and also our farmhands are 5-S2 when recalled). A rival stubbornly went all the way up the ladder on Heisey, leaving him needing 10 players for 12 units. I asked if he has buyer's remorse, and he said he did. We dealt quickly - he avoided dollar days too soon, and I got a decent talent even if the price is no steal. now need 7 for 32, and tried to make a second deal to add talent in exchange for offering some units, to no avail.

    OF CAMERON MAYBIN 24 - This one kind of frosted me. Maybin was the last good OF and one of the last borderline 20-unit guys in the auction, but only the one guy with about 80 units left was bidding beyond about 16. Just felt like I had to have him. BUT now need 6 for 8, and the long begging period was about to begin as most teams had 20-35 units left.

    RP LUKE GREGERSON 3 - A couple of rounds went by, and it was obvious even before the Maybin move that I just couldn't buy a significant 2nd SP (Cahill for 17, guh, after that Niese for 20). Street has the injury/trade chance combo, and I love me some Luke. need 5 for 5

    SP MIKE LEAKE 1 - Wasn't sure I could get anyone with a pulse (uh, Ryu for 16, Stults for 9, McCarthy for 8, EJackson 8, Billingsley 7, TWood 4?) I wasn't missing anything, so I took a Leake instead. need 4 for 4

    1B ERIC HINSKE 1 - My last shot at a guy who could fog a mirror in this slot was Dobbs, who I tried for 3 only to see him get for 4 (that's when I surrendered and bought Gregerson for the 3 instead). It was him or Wigginton - who was the next player chosen in the auction, also for 1. I'll watch the waiver wire, need 3 for 3

    RP WILTON LOPEZ 1 - Good, safe pitcher, and I do own Betancourt (Brothers also went for 1, but I couldn't bid). need 2 for 2

    UT DERRICK ROBINSON 1 - Maybe a hedge on my Heisey play or maybe he's just a pinch-runner. But only barrel scrapings remained. need 1 for 1

    SP TED LILLY-DL 1 - Whew, not exactly risky at this price. And I'm done.

    HEADLEY was replaced by ..... wait, is there even a 3B eligible left? Think I saw 3, and still hated myself after taking Uribe last year. so it's BRENT LILLIBRIDGE. ugh

    LILLY was replaced by - AJ RAMOS. In same 'pen as my Cishek, so a fun flier who will get shipped out if he struggles ( I hope)

    The roster:

    SP Hamels 35, Gee 2, Leake 1, Lilly 1-DL (Ramos)
    RP Betancourt 10, Cishek 10, DHernandez 1, Gregerson 3, WLopez 1
    C MMontero 15, C WRosario 5, 1B Hinske 1, 3B Headley 24-DL (Lillibridge), 2B Phillips 28, SS SCastro 15, DMurphy 1
    OF JUpton 30, Maybin 24, Heisey 13, Venable 12, GBlanco 2, UT DRobinson 1

    Will look up the HQ projections, but clearly crazy speed and a LOT of offense plus a sweet 'pen and an ace SP. I have to make a couple of trades to make this actually work, adding a couple of better SPs. But I think I have the talent to have a shot.....

    ..........

    for fun, what my "sample guys actually went for:

    AdGonz 42, not 33
    Latos 22, not 23 - cheaper! but I had bought Hamels and the timing wasn't right
    Prado 25, not 23, to me
    Niese 20, not the 11 I dreamed of
    Choo 27, not 24 - had a theory that AL arrival might be less frenzied
    Marrcum 1, not 9 - scary reports over weekend, so makes sense
    Span 22, not 14 - oops AL arrival
    Kubel 26, not 13 - see above
    IKennedy 31, not 15 - another doubled DBack!
    Polanco 7, not 1 - yikes
    Last edited by Judge Jude; 04-07-2013, 11:34 AM.
    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

  • #2
    Interesting. Maybe it is just a deeper league than I am used to, but I don't see the scary speed. Phillips and Castro have medium speed, JUpton okay, but decliing (and if all his hits are HR, can't steal anything), Maybin is highly overrated with his contact issues ($24 really?), Venable has some, and Blanco is a fourth outfielder at best (he is really a 5th OF). The bullpen is good. The starting pitching is Hamels and a whole lot of question marks. The power looks better than the speed to me, and is pretty good. The average, I am not sure about. Can you post another team's roster so we can compare. When someone ends up with Hinske (who's done) this year, it helps to know what we are looking at.

    Comment


    • #3
      I can see all your points, for sure. will post more tomorrow.

      I would call this "post-modernism" - if you can get Hamels for 35 instead of IKennedy for 31 and Phillips 28 instead of Cuddyer 28.....

      Ok, HQ is seeing $223 worth of hitting for a spend of $196

      .277 AVG
      174 HR
      771 RBI
      855 R
      177 SB

      Murphy at 9 SB would rank 9th on this list, and that's with Heisey at 6 SB, and they don't even have stats for possible handcuff (in the 1st half) Robinson

      1-2 in our league in SB last year was 193 and 156

      (AVG would be 1st in 2012 - the AVGs of the INFs is off the charts, relatively speaking - and R near top, but so-so HR and RBI)

      fyi, pitching is valued at $92 off spending $64

      so $315 total value

      would not be surprised if they find another team they like a little better, and of course we do need to play the games, lol
      Last edited by Judge Jude; 04-06-2013, 11:20 PM.
      finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
      own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
      won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

      SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
      RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
      C Stallings 2, Casali 1
      1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
      OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

      Comment


      • #4
        I also don't see what you're going to do about starting pitching...Hamels is obviously great, and Gee is very nice at that price, but after that it's a wing and a prayer...

        Love your catching, and your power is going to be plenty good, but I'm with cavebird...I don't see "crazy speed" I think that you're going to be chasing starting pitching all season.

        So what did Halladay go for?
        "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
        - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

        "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
        -Warren Ellis

        Comment


        • #5
          Halladay 11 and Lincecum 16 - to the same team!

          Old school for me. I won in 1990 and 1993 with much weaker staffs: lost 104 games in 1990, most in league history - and won the pennant!

          HQ sees more SB than HR, fwiw
          finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
          own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
          won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

          SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
          RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
          C Stallings 2, Casali 1
          1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
          OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

          Comment


          • #6
            my projections for your team, FYI...

            .268 AVG
            173 HR
            756 RBI
            837 R
            179 SB

            1.196 WHIP
            3.531 ERA
            865 K
            58 W
            72 S

            remarkable how close my projections are to HQ.

            you look to have a real problem with SP, to my eyes...

            ETA: i should say these aren't "my" projections, but a weighted average of a number of others, so as not to claim some special projection powers ...
            Last edited by bryanbutler; 04-07-2013, 12:40 AM.
            "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

            Comment


            • #7
              Thanks very much JJ. I always enjoy this writeup.

              No reason you can't make it work with this squad. Here are some thoughts:
              1) like the Prado buy. Venable probably cheap too.
              2) your keepers were quite nice.
              3) good endgame reliever buys.
              4) weak spots include 1b, sp. personally would look to ship out Phillips for help. You only need a MI as you have Murphy and Castro, and Phillips should have trade value. I would pursue a real 1b (Freeman or Rizzo would be a good target). Then go for an SP. forget SB until later in the season.

              Good luck!!

              Comment


              • #8
                PS. Headley not cheap in year 2 if he is in the AL. Like the Heisey midstream acquisition. That was smart.

                Comment


                • #9
                  thanks for the feedback, agreed on most or all points.

                  my roster would look more "balanced" if I owned IKennedy instead of Phillips. But I got Phillips at 28 vs an uninflated perceived value of 25. And Kennedy went for 31 off a perceived uninflated value of 12 (!). I'll take "trade" everytime, and then make another real trade later to rebalance.

                  I'd rather have Latos at 22, his sale price, but I believe that if I had bid 23, someone would have bid 24, and so on. woulda been worth it to drive someone up, but we can't have everything.
                  finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                  own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                  won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                  SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                  RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                  C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                  1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                  OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                    OF MAX VENABLE 12
                    Will Venable's dad is still playing????????????????????



                    Enjoyable read as always.
                    Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                    We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      What did Aramis Ramirez go for? Guy with long injury history goes on the DL but MRI results aren't back yet, so bidders don't know if he's out 15 days, the whole year, or something in between.
                      Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                      We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Ramirez was kept at 29, news of injury came post-auction

                        ok, ran the rosters thru HQ Team Tracker

                        results
                        314 (me)

                        269
                        261
                        261
                        251
                        249
                        248
                        240
                        233

                        201
                        200
                        185

                        it's been said that if you don't "win" by your own methodology that you follow, you're in trouble


                        a little baffled by the size of the "lead" though
                        proj have me 1st in AVG and R, 2nd in SB, 4th in RBI, 8th in HR
                        also 2nd in ERA and Ratio, 3rd in SV, 11th in W and K, naturally

                        that only adds up to 86 pts, though. haven't run the 'overalls' yet

                        one team has proj 203 SB, then me 177, then next is 136. so yes I may have speed to burn, as they say
                        finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                        own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                        won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                        SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                        RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                        C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                        1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                        OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I think people who play only mixed leagues often struggle at how shallow (not deep) an 'only' league is. Getting everyday at-bats from all starters isn't even a given.

                          So when I read critical comments about rotation and a couple bats, I wonder if commenters play only leagues much.

                          Overall, looks like a solid team to me. I would have gone less stars-n-scrubs conceptually, but as you noted initially that is sometimes just a matter of when you buy. From what you shared, not a ton of reason to think there's a bunch of great late-game buys you missed so if that is true, a little better to have the talent (Phillips, etc) and backfill with call-ups.
                          '

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by RSF View Post
                            I think people who play only mixed leagues often struggle at how shallow (not deep) an 'only' league is. Getting everyday at-bats from all starters isn't even a given.

                            So when I read critical comments about rotation and a couple bats, I wonder if commenters play only leagues much.

                            Overall, looks like a solid team to me. I would have gone less stars-n-scrubs conceptually, but as you noted initially that is sometimes just a matter of when you buy. From what you shared, not a ton of reason to think there's a bunch of great late-game buys you missed so if that is true, a little better to have the talent (Phillips, etc) and backfill with call-ups.


                            '
                            Yes, I play in a 12 team AL only, and this year it was a hell of a lot easier having an extra team to draft from. I can see how the NLers are going to have to adjust their strategy now that the playing field is even, it'll probably take a year or two. Also play in deep 18 team mixed, with 28 man rosters, so I'm pretty comfortable with finding guys who might get part time PT, yet actually produce something for a team.
                            "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                            - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                            "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                            -Warren Ellis

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The one thing I especially learned is about drafting infield stars on the DL, like Headley. Without those couple of Astros INF qualifiers, the last teams in the regular draft are scraping even lower in the barrel - taking away those modest bums from you as you wait for the reserve round.

                              I had adjusted as far as other Astros scenarios go, but not that exact one. Hence.... Brett Lillibridge (doh!). Not a huge deal, but maybe worth being a little warier now of DL infield stars, and a little less so of AL versions (since you move up slightly in the scrub pecking order with Astros filling slots that leave you slightly better off).

                              So I've got Hinske and Lillibridge.
                              I looked up what 1B-eligible NLers are still out there. Let's see... there's YBetancourt (yay, 1 G this year) and ..... Jack Hannahan. That's it.

                              Well, Lillbridge also qualifies at 1B. Who can I add in from 3B (we get 6 moves all season of the 'dump an active bum' variety)? Betancourt again, Hannahan again, JHerrera, RPena, Uribe (!), JoshWilson. hoo boy. I'm sure the guy who kept Aramis for 29 and now needs a replacement will be excited.
                              UPDATE: Now Chris Valaika and Blake DeWitt join the 3B fun, but Freeman to the DL further will drain the corner FA pool....

                              Here's team rated second-best, for comparison. They have little speed and shaky in AVG probably, but good power and stellar starting pitching:

                              SP Cain, Wainwright, GGonzalez, McDonald, Volquez, Teheran
                              RP Kimbrel, Broxton, Belisle
                              INF C CRuiz-DL (Laird) and HSanchez; 1B-3B Freeman, Wigginton, Howard, 2B-SS Espinosa, BCrawford, Uggla
                              OF/UT CCrawford, Ethier, Hart-DL (Sappelt), Quentin, Parra, TMoore

                              In some respects it could be said to be the better team. It's certainly more traditionally balanced. The back end of his rotation could blow some holes in the side of his battleship, and he's slow. But he could be tough to beat.
                              Last edited by Judge Jude; 04-07-2013, 02:58 PM.
                              finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                              own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                              won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                              SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                              RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                              C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                              1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                              OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                              Comment

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