2k13 (and beyond): Jackie Bradley Jr

[joncarlos]

Sort of a double-edged question here... how good can he really be THIS YEAR, and has his ceiling changed appreciably?

Before Spring Training, he was a great prospect in MLB because he has an amazing glove in CF. That made his real prospect value significantly higher than his fantasy prospect value.

He fell to the 40th pick in the 2011 draft partly due to an injury and partly due to some ill-advised tinkering with his swing. Suffice it to say, the 7 glove was still in evidence, so there must have been very little confidence in the bat for him to fall that far.

He only played 10 games after signing in 2011 and didn't do much, 250/325/361 between rookie ball and Low-A, but that's not uncommon for a college guy.

Last year he hit 359/480/526 in 67 games at High-A, proving he was just too good for that level as a 22-year old college player. He held his own at AA, hitting 271/373/437 with 6 HR and 8 SB in 61 games.

And that pretty much looked like his ceiling - maybe .270-.280, 10-15 HRs, maybe 15-20 steals, and a great OBP that could get him 100 runs if he hit at the top of the order. Not a fantasy dynamo but certainly a guy worth owning.

Then he hit 419/507/613 with 10 walks and 10 Ks in 75 spring training PAs, and forced his way onto the team as the regular LF. He's still hitting down in the order, but he's had an interesting first 2 games (167/500/167 with 4 runs scored, 1 hit and 3 walks in 10 PA).

So, the questions are, can he reach his "old" ceiling this year? I'm not even sure he'll keep having a job once Papi comes back (3 weeks away?) but he could always wait until the inevitable Ellsbury injury to come back up.

And, has anything changed with his ultimate ceiling? I don't think the speed has changed significantly, nor do I feel great about a power spike. Maybe the hit tool is better than expected, and that would be a big plus because 295/385/430 is a lot more likely to be at the top of a lineup than 270/360/420.

[TranaGreg]

Thanks for starting this thread jc, I have to make a decision on him tomorrow (late auction for us this year) ... I've been looking at his numbers & trying to figure out where he'll land also.

your estimated ceiling - "maybe .270-.280, 10-15 HRs, maybe 15-20 steals, and a great OBP that could get him 100 runs if he hit at the top of the order" - sounds reasonable IF he can get the playing time (maybe a bit high on the SBs). My concern is that for this year, once Ortiz returns he'll be competing for playing time with Gomes who Boston has made a reasonable investment in; a few games of 0-fer's & he'll get sent to AAA. I dunno, I still think he's worth taking a shot with, esp. in a keeper league, and to your point, there's a lot of ABs to be had with the impending injuries across the Red Sox lineup. but he's a tough one to project.

[joncarlos]

I've got him in my farm system and I have no idea whether to sell "high" or activate him or keep him down (he's free next year if he stays under 130 ABs). I've followed him pretty closely but that doesn't mean I have any idea what to expect.

Platooning him with Gomes in LF seems like a good long-term solution; if he gets 400 ABs this year I don't think that really stunts his growth. But if he struggles I can see them sending him down.

[schlesinj]

Ellsbury is a FA, so clearly he has a full time future. You estimates seem reasonable.

[onejayhawk]

Here is RHD's write up.

20 Jackie Bradley - Very polished hitter and a defensive whiz in CF. Good speed that plays up and a little pop. Should hit for a high average. BA says the Sox love his makeup. His stellar D should hasten his arrival in Fenway Park, which figures to be sometime later this year.

J

[DJBeasties]

This opinion is as a Red Sox fan who is quickly becoming enamored with JBJ so do what you will.


Jackie Bradley Jr. got hyped here real quick, real fast with real media-driven push to make the team. He was great in Spring Training and I ignored him altogether. I didn't watch a single one of his ABs in Spring deliberately so I could not be swept up in the drama. Then he surprisingly made the team and trotted out to LF on Opening Day. Everyone knows the data on him that has researched him or tracked him at all. Advanced plate approach for his age with very good contact skills and technique. Low-to-moderate HR power, plus OBP skills, plus speed, plus/plus glove.

He looks like he belongs already. He looks very poised, very professional but still very young and energetic. It's fun to have a new young position player on the team so I am having trouble with my bias but he looks like a player and the supporting data says he will be, so up close, he passes the test of a possible star.

[NIN]

I sold high on him in early March just before our prospect draft in a dynasty league for a middle 1st and middle 2nd rounder of 16 team league. I ended up drafting Puig and Crick with those two picks so I'm happy I made the trade. I knew whomever was going to be there in the first was going to have more upside than Bradley and the 2nd rounder was gravy. He seems like a very good ball player, but he isn't going to be a difference maker in fantasy.

[RSF]

I think he is pretty unlikely to be a fantasy star. He does not really have plus speed, and is not a particularly significant stolen base threat; most first-hand assessments tout his ability to read the ball and react in CF, not his wheels. In terms of defense that's a fine tradeoff, but in terms of fantasy it is why his SBs have not been huge.

I think we're looking at a 300/380/450 peak with 10ish hrs, 20s in steals, and some doubles. That is a valuable fantasy asset, but not really a star and that is likely a few years off.

If someone sees "Jacoby Ellsbury" in him I'd trade with that person---while the baseball value might be similar, the fantasy value seems unlikely to be in next couple years