Rip it to Shreds...Hornsby's RJEL Team

[Hornsby]

Alright, 5x5 roto with OBP replacing BA...18 team mixed.

Hitters:

C - Salvy Perez 5 *
1B - Adam Dunn 23 *
2B - Aaron Hill 14 *
MI - Brian Roberts 4
SS - Erik Aybar 9 *
3B - Kyle Seager 5 *
CI - Miguel Cabrera 60
OF - Dayan Viciedo 6 *
OF - Emilio Bonifacio 5 *
OF - Franklin Gutierrez 2
OF - Travis Snider 6
OF - Justin Maxwell 9
U - Travis Hafner 3
U - Scott Sizemore 1

Pitchers:

P - Ryan Vogelsong 2 *
P - Jon Lester 20
P - Josh Johnson 22
P - Clay Buchholtz 7
P - Wandy Rodriguez 7
P - Chad Billingsly 4
P - Jim Johnson 6 *
P - Rafael Soriano 1 *
P - Sean Doolittle 2

Reserve Hitters:

Curtis Granderson 25
Logan Morrison 9
Alex Rodriguez 4

Reserve Pitchers:

Vance Worley 3
Matt Lindstrom 1

Alright Gents, have at it...asterisks indicate keepers.

[Big Tymer]

Per RotoLab (they should provide a kick back for all these plugs), you have issues with ERA, WHIP, Runs and RBIs. I'm not personally a fan of going that high on any 1 player but fwiw I expected Cabrera to go for more so hard for me to call that a bad buy. IMO, it just makes it really hard for you to build a strong team coming out of the auction spending so much on one player. That said, if you're able to make trades it's best to have "scrub" spots to make upgrading easier. I like Josh Johnson a lot this year so good with that buy but still stinging from Lester blowing ass last year so can't condone him even after a seemingly solid spring. Really happy you +1'ed me on Buchholz as I didn't want him (as I know you don't either). I think if you add 1 star level SP you'll be in much better shape (assuming Lester is better than LY). That said, I see a whole bunch of holes / question marks on offense so prepare to be active in FAAB and trades.

RotoLab doesn't rate your week-1 team very highly fwiw.

[Frank]

Hey Steve....Not bad for a 30 team auto-draft.. ; )

You should name them Roto-Trash

love ya brutha

[revo]

Grandy + LoMo + ARod = $38 of wasted money for 2013. Grandy at $25 was a big plunk on a HUUUUGE question mark. ARod and Morrison may not even play one half combined. One gamble, fine. But three? Especially since you tossed down $60 on Miggy, you needed to spend this money elsewhere.

[Hornsby]

Grandy + LoMo + ARod = $38 of wasted money for 2013. Grandy at $25 was a big plunk on a HUUUUGE question mark. ARod and Morrison may not even play one half combined. One gamble, fine. But three? Especially since you tossed down $60 on Miggy, you needed to spend this money elsewhere.

Couldn't disagree more. Grandy will be back, fully healed in the middle of May. I don't know where you get your information, but Grandy had a small fracture in an are that shouldn't affect him once it's healed. And that's like getting a 30 HR, potential 15 steal guy for nothing. LoMo for 9 bucks is again, like getting a nice bat for nothing in the middle of the season, the Marlins actually did him a favor by putting him on the 60 day DL...that way he's not going to be tempted to overdo his rehab and hurt the knee again. And A-Rod for 4 bucks? Really, there's nothing out there that can come close to what he can do if he's a shadow of his former self. He played only 122 games last year, with that crappy hip, and hit 18 HR's and stole 13 bases...if he's healthy, he's a steal.

This is from Stephania Bell, ESPN's injury guru:

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees (due back mid-May): No surgery needed for Granderson's small fracture. No reason to worry about his ability to produce once he returns to the lineup.


Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees (due back around All-Star Break): If he's rehabbing as diligently as he says, Rodriguez should be poised for an uneventful return. The hip may be healthy, but he's still an aging player with mounting injury concerns.

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/blog/_/name/bell_stephania/id/9111785/david-wright-zack-greinke-likely-ready-go-opening-day

[revo]

If you offered those three at $38 for my Adam Jones or Matt Holliday at $40, I'd ask you what you're smoking.

Good luck, Mr. optimism, and hope there's no "setbacks."

[RSF]

I think the roster is ok, an 'if all goes well might compete' roster, and it doesn't really seem to reflect a lot of appreciation for the concept of 'discount rate' for injuries or performance rebounds on both hitting and pitching side.

Assuming a full-health, zero-impact return is optimistic for both Granderson and LoMo, in spite of what Bell says. I like both as gambles, but $34 on them when you've got six starters who are definitely improvable seems like a huge gamble to me...that's about what they are worth fully healthy all year, and neither of them will be. It also locks up two roster spots for six weeks; either one is a great use, but two is tougher. Wouldn't say the roster issue is a no-go for me, but it's another factor.
..
Granderson, given his OBP issues, is not much more than a $25 guy if he's healthy all year...figuring in that he's going to miss 1/4 of the season, more likely 1/3, he's about a $16 guy projection-wise. He's worth a bit more than that since you can replace that 1/3-1/4 from the waiver wire, but $25 is paying very full price and not getting any real break for the additional risk of a slow/late/performance reducing return. LoMo is similar, with more risk and arguably some upside.

The pitching, to me, is very similar---I like both Lester and Johnson to bounce back healthy this year and produce, but you've paid for full production without any risk discount. May work, but not value in most auctions I've seen this year. Do like the back-end pitching and bullpen so perhaps the idea is that you might as well spend on the best-available arms.

Your mileage may vary obviously---that's how it looks from here.

[Hornsby]

If you offered those three at $38 for my Adam Jones or Matt Holliday at $40, I'd ask you what you're smoking.

Good luck, Mr. optimism, and hope there's no "setbacks."

Well, I wouldn't make that offer, since I think Jones had his career year last year, and Holliday is getting older and more brittle. I'll take a 25 buck Grandy over a 40 buck Holliday or a 40 buck Jones all day long. And that's why we have auctions...different ideas on how to put a team together.

[revo]

Well, I wouldn't make that offer, since I think Jones had his career year last year, and Holliday is getting older and more brittle. I'll take a 25 buck Grandy over a 40 buck Holliday or a 40 buck Jones all day long. And that's why we have auctions...different ideas on how to put a team together.

Holliday "brittle?" He's had 625+ PAs in six of the last seven seasons, and his one "injury" season he still had 515. And he's all of one year older than Grandy.

And Adam Jones is 27 and has gotten better every season. Career year at age 26?

If you're so defensive about these opinions, why post a thread to have your team rated??

[Hornsby]

Just curious, what OBP issues does Granderson have? He's a career .341 guy, who had an OBP of .364 as recently as 2 years ago. Now it's not Votto territory, but it's certainly at least average, if not better. He's walked more than 70 times in 5 out of the last 6 season, a pretty good eye. He's also stolen double digit bags for the past 6 seasons...

Oh yeah, his replacement in my lineup just hit a 2 run triple...

[Hornsby]

Holliday "brittle?" He's had 625+ PAs in six of the last seven seasons, and his one "injury" season he still had 515. And he's all of one year older than Grandy.

And Adam Jones is 27 and has gotten better every season. Career year at age 26?

If you're so defensive about these opinions, why post to have your team rated??

I'm not defensive at all, just trying to explain why I think your opinion is off base. You came out essentially saying that I wasted 38 bucks, I responded by explaining my rational for doing what I did. And why wouldn't Jones have his career year at age 26? Is there some chronological ladder that I'm not aware of that says that statistics MUST progress every year? Both your guys are very good players, and both cost you 15 bucks a peice more than mine. My guy will miss a month and a half, and his replacements on my roster will backfill some of that production. Simple as that...

[RSF]

He had a .319 OBP last year and a .324 OBP three years ago. A simple 3-2-1 weighting suggests a .330 OBP is a reasonable baseline expectation; however, he's coming off an arm injury and in a weaker lineup, he's 32, and he had a .327 OBP four years ago so to me he's more likely to be under that baseline than over. Citing his career number is little optimistic, since he was a better OBP guy earlier in his career. I think the numbers suggest he's going to be at least somewhat a negative on OBP in most leagues, and for $25 that's an issue. He's not a huge drag there, but to me it's an issue for what is in theory your second-best hitter.

By the way, I don't agree that money is wasted; Granderson will be an asset. I just think it is pretty clearly suboptimal allocation of the money and a ton of risk (and roster spots) to be carrying on injured guys.

Statistics don't come with 'musts' but they do come with probabilities. The probability is that Jones is coming into his peak, and the probability is that you'll get a good bit less than $38 for those three. But of course it could play out differently, as you not above that is what makes auctions work.

[revo]

Just curious, what OBP issues does Granderson have? He's a career .341 guy, who had an OBP of .364 as recently as 2 years ago. Now it's not Votto territory, but it's certainly at least average, if not better. He's walked more than 70 times in 5 out of the last 6 season, a pretty good eye. He's also stolen double digit bags for the past 6 seasons...

Oh yeah, his replacement in my lineup just hit a 2 run triple...

Three of the last four years, his OBP was <.327. Coincided with him transforming into a .240ish hitter. And last year he bottomed out at .319, where he helped my team to be dead last in OBP.

Him getting to .341 would be a big improvement over last year, and then there's that whole forearm thing again.

[Hornsby]

Three of the last four years, his OBP was <.327. Coincided with him transforming into a .240ish hitter. And last year he bottomed out at .319, where he helped my team to be dead last in OBP.

Him getting to .341 would be a big improvement over last year, and then there's that whole forearm thing again.

OK Ed, you win...crappy use of my money for now and the future. Now let's play the season and see where we finish, shall we?

[revo]

OK Ed, you win...crappy use of my money for now and the future. Now let's play the season and see where we finish, shall we?

LOL. You specifically asked "what OBP issues does Granderson have?" Did you mean for that to be a private message to someone?