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**Hornsby** · 03-31-2013, 03:27 PM

Yeah, I'd have to say that you're a little light in the power unless V-Mart can hit 25 and Hart hits 25...no guaranteed 30 HR bats there so that's going to be an issue. At 30 years old, I don't like Reynolds to dramatically turn his slide around...but it's possible that he could get to 30. Speed, and more speed, almost too much speed with 3 burners. But it will allow you to deal when you need to, everyone's always looking for bags. Runs should be solid and OBP should also be good.

Love Scherzer, and fought you for him to no avail...he's going to be a beast, again. The rest of the staff is good, not great, with too much resting on aging, unproven, or injured guys. If you hit on all bets, you'll be great, if you miss on a couple, you'll be in trouble, just like the rest of us. Good low cost closers backup up well with top 8 inning guys, so saves should be in the upper 3rd at worst, IMO.

I think that you'll be in it, but you have some work to do during the season...don't get too tied to those prospects of yours.

**The Dane** · 03-31-2013, 03:34 PM

My take:

Your strengths:
• Your spread the risk is obvious and well-executed.
• You have fewer holes than most and those are easily filled with players you have on hand.
• Solid starting pitching staff. Your low-end starters are pretty good, better than most. I do like how these are starters on good teams.
• I pushed you $19 on Reynolds. I am really high on him this year, and I think 30 HRs is good play for him. I think it was just me and you after $12. I think it was you that pushed me on Venable, so all is fair.
• You have lots of speed.

Your weaknesses:
• I think you lack a true ace. Scherzer is damn good, but I think he's more of a strong #2. If you get a couple of injuries, even short-term ones, your staff could get ugly quick.
• While you have a lot of SBs, you did pay quite a bit for them. SBs are cheap, generally, and I find that if I try to go cheap on SBs and spend on power, I tend to do better than when the opposite is the case. We'll see how that goes for you. Intuitively, it should work, but I don't see it often.
• You could really be hurting in OBP with a couple of down seasons. Getting power from Reynolds and Carter are not going to help you too much there.
• I like this team very much, but it tough for me to get a handle on. I think you'll have a very good idea of what you have by the end of May.

**Big Tymer** · 03-31-2013, 03:42 PM

Yeah, loading up on SBs early was a counter-strategy to play against general sentiment these days which is more about power. My feeling is that if I could lock down 2 SB studs early I could shift focus later on just OBA and HR. Problem there being as I am using a spread the risk strategy I had to take what the auction gave me. It was you on Reynolds but I was just price enforcing on Venable (as I clearly didn't need him) so agree all is fair. Reynolds had an oblique last year so I fully expect him to get above 30 but agree that he needs to for my team to be good (and do so with an OBA > 320).

I probably disagree that Scherzer isn't an "ace" but generally agree with your sentiment on my staff. I've been burned so many times by SPs who I pay a lot for only to get hurt or underperform so I wanted a more balanced staff this year. We'll see how it plays out.

**Big Tymer** · 04-01-2013, 07:22 AM

So Chris Carter looked Pedro Cerano bad last night. Guy is massive but omg is his hit tool a 40? Just one game but had I seen that swing live in the preseason I don't think I would have bid. Oh well, stats don't tell the whole story....

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