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NL-Only Keeper League - HDID / Auction Anatomy

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  • NL-Only Keeper League - HDID / Auction Anatomy

    I figured I'd write this up, partially with the hopes of getting opinions on my team, and partially to figure out why this auction went the way it did I've enjoyed reading others' discussions of their auctions, so I'm hoping this will interest at least one or two people. I apologize in advance for the length.

    The league is an online 5x5 NL-Only league I started 15 years ago, though I passed the Commissioner title on to someone else several years ago. We were originally a 12 team league, but lost a few owners last year, and so are down to 10. To compensate, rosters were raised to 25 (an additional utility hitter and an additional pitcher), with a $280 auction budget. The league is run through ESPN, which apparently makes you draft your reserves as part of the auction, so we add $1 for each of our six reserves, meaning we actually buy 31 players with a $286 budget.

    Keepers:

    I came in with a relatively strong keeper list, though not as strong as in years past. I've finished in the top three spots (second last year) almost every year, so came in hoping to continue that streak.

    My keepers:

    C A.J. Ellis, LAD $1
    1B Adam LaRoche, Wsh $9
    2B Aaron Hill, Ari $12 (year one of two year long term contract)
    3B Chase Headley, SD $14
    SS Zack Cozart, Cin $6
    OF Giancarlo Stanton, Mia $20 (2 years left on long term contract)
    OF Bryce Harper, Wsh $3
    OF Carlos Beltran, StL $15
    OF Adam Eaton, Ari $5
    OF Matt Holliday, StL $31

    P Gio Gonzalez, Wsh $18
    P Kris Medlen, Atl $1
    P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5

    Minors (no cost to keep):
    OF Billy Hamilton, Cin $10
    2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
    OF Jorge Soler, Chi $3

    I obviously had a very strong OF and fairly good infield, with my biggest need being pitching, where I had a decent start but not a lot quantity-wise. My goal on the pitching side was to pickup an ace starter in the $20 - 30 range, at least one and preferably 2 closers, 2 mid-level starters and then speculate on a $5-7 SP or two and/or a good ratios reliever/heir apparent to saves. On the hitting side, I wanted to add at least one base stealer, and then go for generally well-rounded hitting or whatever seemed cost effective in general, with the plan being to spend only $1 or 2 on a second catcher. The injuries to Headley and Eaton, which both occurred after our keeper deadline, complicated things a bit, but as long as their injuries don't linger too long, that shouldn't be a major issue.

    Inflation calculated out in the 11-13% range, which was significantly lower than in the past. I spent $140 on 13 keepers, meaning I had $146 to spend on 18 (including reserves) at the auction.

    Auction Night:

    As mentioned, this is an online auction done through ESPN. The first hint that this was going to be a difficult auction to deal with came when two of the owners didn't show up. I think one, and possibly both, were having weather/power issues, which sucks, but regardless of reason, there wasn't much to be done about it. We waited a bit to see if they would show up, then started.

    The way ESPN handles absentee owners is to autobid based on any custom dollar amounts those owners set, or, in the absence of any custom values, using ESPN's values. If you've used ESPN's auction tools, you'll know that their values tend to be very high for top players. It was obvious very early that this was going to be an issue, as both absentee teams had a lot of money to spend, and they ended up buying 6 of the first 8 players nominated, and bidding up almost everyone else past what I had them valued at. This left me with a decision to make. I could wait, as the autobids would eventually either run themselves out of money or run a lot of others out of money, but with the risk of most of the high end players being gone by then, or I could jump in and try to buy a few players at values that were reasonably close to what I had listed.

    I waited for a bit, but then realized that, after keepers, there just weren't enough good players left in the auction to sit around and let money run out, so I started bidding:

    Buys:

    1. Sin-Soo Choo, Cin OF $25 ($121 for 17)

    One of the players I was targeting coming in, I really like his mix of power and speed, although there's some injury risk. I had him valued in the $22-23 range, so overpaid a bit, but felt that was worth it given the prices other players were going for at this stage.

    2. Rickie Weeks, Mil 2B $21 ($100 for 16)

    I waited around a long time after my first buy, as a bunch of good hitters went off the board at extremely high prices. I was starting to worry about filling in on the hitting side. Weeks was nominated and got to $18, after which I went $19, which was about what I had him listed for. I'm not crazy about him, so was prepared to let him go when another owner bid $20, but then noticed there was precious little left in the middle infield, so figured the extra $1 was worth it. I sort of regret this pick, but I don't think it's horrible.

    3. Huston Street, SD RP $17 ($83 for 15)

    Time to start looking at pitching. The autobids meant I lost out on the few ace starters that were available in the auction, meaning I'd have to settle for mid-level starting pitchers, and could afford to bid a bit more on closers, which I now decided I definitely wanted two of. Street was nominated and went for about what I had him listed at, so I jumped.

    4. Juan Pierre, Fla OF $11 ($72 for 14)

    Another guy I was targeting coming in to help out with speed relatively cheaply. I had him listed at $12, he went for $11, so I'm happy here.

    5. Shaun Marcum, NY SP $11 ($61 for 13)

    Starting pitchers have been flying off the board. I've been bidding but not winning anyone, since they're still way above where they should be, but I'm starting to worry that I may not be able to buy enough to be competitive here. There are only 5 or 6 SPs left that I have much interest in, so when Marcum comes up, I figure he's worth a buy. I wanted him around $8 or $9, but realized I'd better start buying now, and had a few extra bucks to spend since I wasn't getting the ace I'd planned on.

    6. Frank Francisco, NY RP $5 ($56 for 12)

    A few closers have gone off the board at very high prices (Soriano $22, Motte $18/Boggs $12, Betancourt $18), so only Bobby Parnell and one other definite closer are left. I decide that I'm going to try to grab Parnell, and pickup Francisco to hopefully lock up the Mets saves.

    7. Brandon McCarthy, Ari SP $15 ($41 for 11)

    I overpaid here, considering I don't even like him that much, but the SP situation was starting to get pretty dire. There were only 3 or so SPs left that I really liked, and I expected I'd want to get two of those.

    8. Jordan Pachecho, Col 3B $5 ($36 for 10)

    I like Pachecho, and there was absolutely nothing left at corner infield at this point, though $5 was probably a bit high. I would've been happier at $3.

    9. Rob Brantly, Mia C $2 ($34 for 9)

    Bobby Parnell was brought up in this period, and bidding went to $17. I couldn't justify going $18 (and had the feeling the bidding would keep going), so regrettably had to let him go, which leaves me very concerned about pitching. There was surprisingly quite a bit left at catcher at this point, but I assumed the teams with a fair bit of money left were going to have a bidding war over most of them since there wasn't too much else out there, so grabbed one of the ones I liked at $2. In retrospect, the bidding war never really happened, as guys like Wilson Ramos went for $1 and Ryan Hanigan for $2, but Brantly at $2 isn't bad.

    10. Dillon Gee, NY SP $8 ($26 for 8)

    I'm a little concerned with grabbing too many Mets pitchers, as I'm a Mets fan and usually try to avoid it because I worry my judgment may be clouded, but there isn't much left at this point and I actually like Gee more than the other two Mets I've chosen.

    11. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA SP $14 ($12 for 7)

    My SP board is basically Ryu and a bunch of $1 flyers and/or guys I don't want to roster at this point, so, as I can see I'm not getting another closer (even possible/speculative closers are going at ridiculous prices at this point, e.g. Drew Storen $10, Fujikawa $15), I decide to go all in on Ryu as my last big purchase. I wanted him at around $12, but will settle for $14.

    12. Sean Marshall, Cin RP $2 ($10 for 6)

    Good reliever with good ratios. At this point I can't ask for much more. He's probably only third in line for saves at best, but since I'm not completely sold on Chapman staying healthy, or Broxton being any good, there's always an outside chance.

    13. Yasmani Grandal, SD C $1 ($9 for 5)

    I nominated Grandal with the hopes of using up a bit of other teams' money, and was surprised to see no bids. He's out for a while with the suspension, but for $1 I think this could be a very good pickup

    14. Wily Peralta, Mil SP $2 ($7 for 4)

    A flyer on an SP with decent skills. Probably won't work out, but at this point I'm just looking for upside.

    15. Jose Tabata, Pit OF $1 ($6 for 3)

    Another upside pick, probably won't do much but who knows.

    16. John Lannan, Phi SP $1 ($5 for 2)

    I was struggling to find someone to nominate before time ran out here, and was kind of hoping someone would go $2, but it didn't happen. May be my first replacement candidate, but you never know.

    17. Mark Melancon, Pit RP $1 ($4 for 1)

    Not my favorite pitcher, but he's the logical closer in waiting behind an unproven Jason Grilli, so I figured he's worth a flyer at $1 towards the very end of the auction.

    18. Cory Luebke, SD SP $3 ($1 for 0)

    He's been on my team for the last three years and been great, so at this point and price, I'm willing to take a chance on seeing how he comes back. I'm not crazy about having both Beachy and Luebke to wait on, but they could both provide a good mid-season boost or trade bait if they come back healthy.

    Final Roster:

    Starters:
    C A.J. Ellis, LAD $1
    C Rob Brantly, Mia $2
    1B Adam LaRoche, Wsh $9
    2B Aaron Hill, Ari $12
    3B Chase Headley, SD $14
    SS Zack Cozart, Cin $6
    CI Jordan Pachecho, Col $5
    MI Rickie Weeks, Mil $21
    OF Giancarlo Stanton, Mia $20
    OF Bryce Harper, Wsh $3
    OF Carlos Beltran, StL $15
    OF Adam Eaton, Ari $5
    OF Matt Holliday, StL $31
    UT Shin-Shoo Choo, Cin $25
    UT Juan Pierre, Mia $11

    P Gio Gonzalez, Wsh $18
    P Kris Medlen, Atl $1
    P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
    P Brandon McCarthy, Ari $15
    P Shaun Marcum, NY $11
    P Dillon Gee, NY $8
    P Huston Street, SD $17
    P Sean Marshall, Cin $2
    P Frank Francisco, NY $5
    P Mark Melancon, Pit $1

    Reserves:
    C Yasmani Grandal, SD $1
    OF Jose Tabata, Pit $1
    P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5
    P Cory Luebke, SD $3
    P Wily Peralta, Mil $2
    P John Lannan, Phi $1

    Minors:
    OF Billy Hamilton, Cin $10
    2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
    SS Roman Quinn, Phi $5
    OF Jorge Soler, Chi $3

    Final Thoughts

    I don't think this is a horrible team, but I'm not very happy with it either. I didn't adjust well enough to the autobid issue, and that meant my plan coming in didn't get executed very well. That I got neither the ace starter, nor the second closer I wanted hurts, and the players I did pickup are mostly either middle of the pack talent, injury prone, or both. I think this team can compete for the title if things break right, but that's more on the strength of my keeper list than what I did at the auction. This is the least certain I've been of an auction in a long time.

    Opinions on how I did?
    Last edited by Zupe; 03-29-2013, 10:20 AM.

  • #2
    As a follow-up, I picked up Kyle Lohse, who wasn't eligible for our auction because he hadn't yet signed, for a $15 FAAB bid (anything over $15 and they have to be protected next year) in our first round of claims, dropping Lannan. That makes me feel somewhat better on the pitching side. Lohse slides in for Marcum for the time being.

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