Only League impact of Astro's move

[Fresno Bob]

NL-onlies, have you noticed that the endgame is grimmer? AL-onlys, surprised by the talent still there? Any trends or differences you noticed?

[Judge Jude]

Great question.

We don't draft til April 6, but I for one intend to get 240-250 units deep before most teams. I smell end-game, desperation-bidding bloodbath in NL-onlies just before the end game.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, if this were a more talented team switching, the impact would be a lot bigger, but even if it is just the Astros, there is a significant impact that can be exploited by savvy owners in both AL and NL only leagues.

[The Dane]

I finished an NL-only (12-Team 5x5 OBP) on Saturday. I think individual league rules will REALLY make a difference. My observations...

• Scrubs at at the end were considerably more scrubby. My thought is that the tried and true Stars and Scrubs may be less viable, because the scrubs really don't offer too much.

• This league allows drafting of minor leaguers in the auction and we don't lose them if they don't make the team. Usually, only the top two or three prospects get drafted and the rest get picked up in the minor league draft. This year about ten were drafted or grabbed in the reserve round, and by a couple of owners that rarely grab minor leaguers in the auction. (I got only Anthony Rendon for a buck.)

• Prices weren't much different. Braun was kept and so Tulo was the highest priced player at $35, and only Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman went for more than $30. (Although, nine players were kept at $30+.) Three pitchers went for $29, Cain, Greinke, and Hamels.

• TONS of $1 players at the end. $38 was left on the table, mainly because I think we kind of expected there to be something to spend the money on later and there just wasn't.

• A huge amount of pitchers fell in two main price ranges: $9-$12 and $1-$3. This seemed odd.

[Judge Jude]

intriguing, Dane


"Tulo was the highest priced player at $35, and only Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman went for more than $30."

aside from H-Ram, aren't the other 3 bargains? ok, Tulo is a mystery, but...

[The Dane]

intriguing, Dane


"Tulo was the highest priced player at $35, and only Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman went for more than $30."

aside from H-Ram, aren't the other 3 bargains? ok, Tulo is a mystery, but...

This league has some nifty rules that keep inflation in check. Rarely does a player go over $40. Braun, if he wasn't kept (by me at $31) would surely go for $40. We do slant more spending toward hitting, in general, but this is a very SANE league. The way the league is structured keeps it that way.

I was surprised at Tulo, a bit, but the others are about at value. There were a ton more players that stopped at $29; that $30 mental barrier was tough to break this time around. I thought Zimmerman at $30 was a bargain, especially considering Gonzalez went for $32. I don't read too much in a dollar or two difference; so much of that has to do with when the player was drafted and who was available. They are all on the same tier and went for about the same.

[TranaGreg]

yeah, I'm planning how to approach my AL only auction & am thinking I'll blow all my money early & then wait for the end game - yes it's only Houston, but being able to get a Carter or Wallace or Norris (or comparable talents) in the late game is definitely affecting how I'm approaching it.

[Hornsby]

Hey, you all had an extra team for years, now it's a level playing field...no whining!

[The Dane]

Hey, you all had an extra team for years, now it's a level playing field...no whining!

Yeah, I keep that in mind. So, I KNOW it will be okay, because ALers have been doing it forever, but the transition is something that can create opportunity and we need to understand that on both ends.

[Fresno Bob]

I just did a 10 team NL only, and I was expecting more talent in the end game than I saw, since most of my NL-only stuff has been 12 team. that's what prompted my question

[axman]

In looking at prep work for my AL only league I really won't mind getting stuck with the $1 guys. I think there are more guys with upside left at the end of auctions than previous years.

[TranaGreg]

yeah ... don't want to leave money on the table this year (or any year, but there's more risk of it this year).

[The Dane]

Here's the team I ended up with:
*keepers
(12-team NL, 5x5, daily)

C- EGattis 1
C- DNavarro 1
1B- PGoldschmidt 15*
2B- LForsythe 5
3B- ARendon 1
SS- SCastro 17*
MI- JRutledge 10*
CI- RHoward 16*
OF- RBraun 31*
OF- MStanton 20*
OF- CHart 14
OF- AEaton 10*
OF- DSpan 18
UT- WVenable 4

SP CKershaw 27*
SP WMiley 10*
SP NEovaldi 5
SP TLilly 1
SP PMaholm 2
SP TWood 1
SP BBeachy 7
RP BParnell 10*
RP JAxford 18

Bench (daily transactions, so I stream in MRs)-
SS- AGonzalez (will replace AEaton)
OF- TMoore (will replace CHart)
P- FFrancisco
P- RBrothers
P- CVillanueva
P- WLopez
P- GKontos
P- SLeCure
P- JHenderson
P- BZeigler
Minors
NArenado
KWong

I think my hitting is VERY solid and I should, with little work, hold my own in all 5 categories. Pitching is hit and miss, but I like the MRs I can stream in, which will keep me in the hunt in Ks. I can easily trade some hitting for pitching.

The move to 15 NL teams probably affected me most mid-draft. Endgame is endgame, regardless of depth.

[Judge Jude]

I dunno Dane, could be 4 black holes there in 2013 anyway - the catchers, Forsythe, Rendon. OF is awesome, of course, and some more good bats. Maybe you can move a prospect for a real catcher later in the year.

I do like Lilly and Maholm a lot for those prices!

[james33]

C- EGattis 1
C- DNavarro 1

I like, for the future, that you grabbed Gattis for $1. What other catchers went for $1-$3?

If memory serves, Houston catchers recently have stunk but have had some playing time concerns as well, meaning two Houston catchers were auctioned in the recent past.

15 teams means an awful lot of non-starting catchers in a 12-team league.

On the other hand, this year there are, I believe, 4 NL teams whose Opening Day catcher won't be the same as the expected starting catcher, due to injury (Atlanta) or suspension (Phi and SD) or d'Arnaud waiting in the wings (NYM). So in theory that gives us 18-19 catchers worth rostering (depending on whether your league allows d'Arnaud to be taken in the auction). The Reds have two rosterable catchers and SF's Sanchez is rosterable since Posey will play some first, so now we're up to 20-21. Gattis for keeper leagues: we're up to 21-22 catchers barely worth rostering.