2K13: St. Louis Cardinals

[james33]

We still have a few weeks before the regular season, so things could change of course, but as of today:

1) Kozma has won the SS job (over Ronny Cedeno, who was signed in the offseason and released in spring training). Furcal is hurt and it doesn't sound good at all.

2) 2B is still a battle between Descalso and Carpenter, and Cards manager Mike Matheny may ride the hot hand throughout the year, and/or may rotate them both in based on who is pitching (Descalso when groundballer Westbrook is pitching).

3) The other six starting jobs have always been clear, and you probably know what they'll do - C Molina, 1B Craig, 3B Freese, RF Beltran, CF (and leadoff hitter) Jon Jay, LF Holliday. Of these, Molina and Jay outperformed expecations last year, so you may want to be cautious expecting a repeat. Freese hurt his back recently making a catch, but is expected to play before spring training ends.

4) Five bats on the Bench:

i) Tony Cruz would be the backup catcher who isn't bad if Molina gets hurt, but he still wouldn't crack my list of top 24 NL fantasy catchers since Yadier Molina plays so much.

ii) Ty Wigginton CI - nothing to get excited about, but he'll make the team; they paid him too much to think about cutting him, and he has that veteran presence blah blah blah.

iii) Matt Carpenter/Daniel Descalso (whoever loses the 2B job)

iv) Shane Robinson OF - batting .500 with 3 HRs, he is leading Adron Chambers and Justin Christian for the 4th OF spot. Note that the Cardinals will only carry one OF on their bench, since starting 1B Allen Craig can, and will, play some RF and LF.

v) Expected to be Matt Adams 1B - Descalso can also play SS, so the Cardinals would still have two guys who could play SS, and the Cardinals would be a better team with Adams on the bench as a pinch hitter (see i-iv above; not much stick on the bench).

Top prospects Oscar Taveras and Kolten Wong are quite unlikely to make the club out of spring training but both are quite likely to be up at some point, with Taveras much more likely to be up before September than Wong.

5) Rotation: Chris Carpenter is out for the year and Kyle Lohse is now a Brewer. So the rotation is Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Westbrook, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller

6) Bullpen Guys/Other Pitchers worth owning/considering in rough order of how I'd rank them:

i) Jason Motte - closer but injured.

ii) Mitchell Boggs - 8th inning guy with first shot at closing in Motte's absence.

iii) Trevor Rosenthal - expected to make the team in the bullpen. The Cardinals might let him start at some point, or they might be considering him closer of the future. Hit 100 MPH and struck out the side the other day. His role was expected to be the guy who comes in when runners are on base late in games and they need a strikeout.

iv) Mujica - 7th inning guy; $1 shouldn't hurt you. He has been getting rocked in spring training, but nobody seems concerned. Might get a shot at closing before Rosenthal if Boggs flops quickly.

v) Michael Wacha - good pitching prospect; won't make the team out of spring training, but has a chance of being 2nd man up in the second half of the season if two starters get hurt, so keep an eye on him.

vi) Joe Kelly would have a good chance to be the first man up if a starter gets hurt. Likely would begin season in long relief in MLB.

Derrick Goold (St. Louis Post-Dispatch) https://twitter.com/dgoold is the best guy for Cardinals coverage.

[willthethrill]

How is Jaime Garcia looking? He's an end-gamer that I'd be interested in if his arm looked healthy.

[joncarlos]

Beltran is hurting too, which is worrisome. Nobody drafts him expecting 600 ABs, but what's the plan if he's out for a couple weeks? Will Sugar Shane Robinson just fill in for any minor injuries? Or will Craig go to RF and have Adams come up for a bit?

[james33]

How is Jaime Garcia looking? He's an end-gamer that I'd be interested in if his arm looked healthy.

Tough to tell. Nobody trusts Jaime after he toughed it out at the end of last year and pitched when he wasn't healthy enough to be pitching. That pissed off some of his teammates. As far as his actual performance, 5 IP 4 H 2 BB, and just 1 K on Sunday, and the defense made some good plays behind him. The 5 IP is certainly a good sign. And tough to panic about 1 K in 5 IP, as it is just one outing.

One concern I've heard with Jaime is that he is a groundball pitcher who depends on his infield defense, and the Cardinals infield defense isn't what it was a couple years ago. I've heard disagreement on Kozma's defense - if he settles in and settles down, all should be ok.

Jaime went for just $6 in NL-only LABR, which seems like a fair price to me.

[james33]

Beltran is hurting too, which is worrisome. Nobody drafts him expecting 600 ABs, but what's the plan if he's out for a couple weeks? Will Sugar Shane Robinson just fill in for any minor injuries? Or will Craig go to RF and have Adams come up for a bit?

Adams would almost certainly come up for a bit but likely wouldn't play every day, as the Cardinals would likely rotate lineups, with Robinson getting some starts at RF, Craig at RF/Adams at 1B and Craig at RF/Carpenter at 1B/Descalso at 2B. I'd guess Craig at RF and Adams at 1B would be the most oft-used lineup in case of one injury to Beltran. Note that the same scenario would play out (but at LF instead of RF) were Holliday to be injured.

It also would depend on the severity and the timing of the injury. If, say, Beltran or Holliday get season-ending injuries in late June, then Adams owners would have to worry about Oscar Taveras simply taking over.

Long-term, conventional wisdom is that Adams is trade bait as there isn't a clear place for him, and 1B-only guys tend to get traded to the A.L., so NL-only owners should be somewhat concerned. Alternate 2013-2014 offseason hypothesis is that, if the Cardinals decide Taveras can handle CF, Jon Jay will be moved, which still doesn't leave Adams with a starting gig, but makes for one less guy to worry about competing with for playing time.

[james33]

Joe Kelly outpitched shelby miller today. Best guess is Kelly as no 5 starter and shelby still makes team in bullpen in long relief.

[mjl]

Carpenter was 2 for 3 with a double and a triple. Is the 2B battle any closer to getting called one way or the other?

[Pauly]

Joe Kelly outpitched shelby miller today. Best guess is Kelly as no 5 starter and shelby still makes team in bullpen in long relief.

thats the worst news i heard all day...

If you could only keep one of Miller or Teheran, who would you pick?

[schlesinj]

Teheran

[Hornsby]

Joe Kelly outpitched shelby miller today. Best guess is Kelly as no 5 starter and shelby still makes team in bullpen in long relief.

I would think that they'd want Miller to pitch every 5 days, don't you? Being in long relief is really not the way a young stud needs to break into the bigs...

[TS Garp]

thats the worst news i heard all day...

If you could only keep one of Miller or Teheran, who would you pick?

Teheran has been lights out this spring but he wasn't just mediocre last year at Triple A -- he was downright bad. It's possible he "figured something out," and he's still extremely young, but despite Miller's struggles in the minors last year, his k/9 rate was still intact, whereas Teheran's dropped through the floor. I would still peg Miller as the stronger long-term play.

[JudeBaldo]

So when Jaime Garcia implodes its Miller next?

[joncarlos]

So when Jaime Garcia implodes its Miller next?

My understanding is that once they commit someone (Rosenthal) to the 'pen, they'll probably stay there all year. Which makes the hierarchy Miller, Wacha, maybe C-Mart for replacing Garcia.

[james33]

So when Jaime Garcia implodes its Miller next?

Yes.

I would think that they'd want Miller to pitch every 5 days, don't you? Being in long relief is really not the way a young stud needs to break into the bigs...

Miller to AAA so he can stay stretched out and ready to go in case of injury or implosion of Kelly/Garcia is certainly a possibility. If Rzepzynski (lefty in bullpen aka "Scrabble") ends up healthy - he supposedly hurt his eye golfing - and if Fernando Salas (righty in bullpen) continues to pitch well, Miller to AAA becomes even more likely. Motte, Boggs, Mujica, Rosenthal, and Choate (makes over $2MM/year) are considered locks to make the bullpen. So that leaves just two slots for Scrabble and Salas and Shelby.

There are several theories as to why Miller will end up in the bigs: (1) Cardinals are a competitive team, and while long relief sounds irrelevent, they think they are a better team with Shelby Miller on the roster. And they really don't have a long reliever in the bullpen without him; they have a bunch of guys used to pitching just one inning. (2) Shelby Miller had some maturity issues in the past, mainly wanting to do everything his way rather than listening to coaches and catchers. He has grown up in the last 9 months or so and has started listening to authority figures more. They want to make sure this continues. Several veterans in the Cardinal clubhouse are keeping an eye on him and they want him to learn from the vets and they want him to be close enough to keep an eye on. (3) Going from long relief to a rotation isn't unprecedented. Several teams have done this - Johan Santana many years ago with the Twins. More recently, Lance Lynn with the Cardinals. At this point, they know Shelby can pitch, so why put more mileage on his arm contributing in AAA rather than less mileage on his arm contributing at the MLB level?

I should add that Joe Kelly has not definitively beat out Shelby Miller for the 5th starter spot. Everything that came from the club before yesterday was that yesterday's game was the decision game, but Mike Matheny said afterwards that nothing had been decided yet. He is probably blowing smoke but there is certainly a chance that they wanted Shelby to be the 5th starter, and were going to give it to him if both performed similarly, and now the Cardinal braintrust is saying "crap, what do we do now?"

More here on the 5th starter battle: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...2e9cd3ac7.html

[james33]

Carpenter was 2 for 3 with a double and a triple. Is the 2B battle any closer to getting called one way or the other?

Carpenter also helped turn a couple doubleplays, arguably more important than his double and triple, since they already know he can hit. And he keeps getting the vast majority of his innings at 2B, rather than some 1B, some 3B, which is certainly a good sign. But I don't believe it is close to being called.