Keeper Philosophy and Question - NL and AL only leagues

[Outfit]

Hello all,

I often see a lot of keeper questions on here and I have one as well but I think my question also is a philosophical one.

NL only (2C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5OF, U, and 9P). 11 teams. The number of keepers are based on standings from last year and inflation is usually 10-12%. Braun went for $42 dollars as the highest paid player. Top pitchers go for about $32-$30.

I can keep four players from last year. I don't have too many options, but I have three keepers I'm confident in: Rosario $3, Alonso $8, and Bailey $3. These are set.

That leaves me with only (1) one more player at the following rates: Ryan Zimmerman $31, Jay Bruce $30, and Ruben Tejada $1. I am fairly confident Zimmerman and Bruce will go no higher than $35 and probably go in the $32-$34 range. I believe Tejada will probably go in the $7-$9 range.

Do I keep the stars by either choosing Zimmerman or Bruce or do I try to maximize my money and go with Tejada who is a scrub, but a scrub who will probably get ABs?

I feel like Zimmerman and Bruce are going to have solid years but Tejada will be average at best given his lack of power and speed. But also I feel like I leave "money on the table" if I don't protect Tejada, given the rates I expect to see on auction day.

Thanks for your consideration.

[swampdragon]

YOu said that you feel that Tejada will go for $7 or so - sounds about right - but you also think that he is a scrub.

Is there another scrub that you would rather have for a buck or two - and might get $7 value?

[Lucky]

swampdragon is right. Everyone winds up with some $1 players in an auction. Do you think there will be any other $7 players available for $1?

And I agree that Tejada is worth at least $7.

[Fresno Bob]

more profit and less risk with the $1 Tejada

[Weapon1]

If you keep a high dollar player, you always have to consider the opportunity cost--which other high dollar players that are going to be available that I am removing myself from the opportunity to get. If you want to be in those players, throw yours back.

[Big Tymer]

Big Bruce fan but if you believe that inflation is only 10% then $30 is within a few bucks of where you'd expect him to go. The rest of your keepers though are far from sure things (nice players but not without warts) and personally I might feel better with one stud on my team than having 4 marginal players.

[rhd]

I'd definitely keep Tejada. He's more than a "scrub". He's young and has some upside, altho he doesnt project to be more than a solid regular. And he will play everyday. Furthermore, you say that Tejada will go for around $6-$8 more than his contract price whereas Bruce and Zim will go for only $2-$5 more. So, Tejada is considered to have the most excess value. Plus, there's more risk involved w a higher salary player, i.e., there's a greater chance they wont even earn their value. That said, I do often keep hi-salary players, but that is because I think they will have more excess value than lower-priced keeper candidates. And because I like going into a draft w a stud already rostered.

[Big Tymer]

So, Tejada is considered to have the most excess value

Slightly off-topic but had to respond to this. Good article posted on BaseballHQ today promoting what they call "Total Control Drafting" but within that they make a point which pertains to this quote above. The concept of "value" is sometimes taken too literally by people. Projections are probabalistic and reflect likeliness to occur based on a range of possible outcomes. We don't know for sure where the "value" is today so to chase it to me doesn't make a lot of sense. Bruce can just as well outearn his $30 by more than Tejada at the end of the year so to me it comes down to (a) which player do you want more, (b) which player is more easily replaced at auction and (c) is one of the players someone you'll regret not rostering.