Chris Johnson 2k11

[NakedRicci]

So what are the pen's thoughts on Chris Johnson? He's not a super high-demand guy, but several sources have him as a fairly decent breakout guy or as a guy who should establish himself this year.

Is he good for .300+BA and 18-20HRs? Projected 6th in the lineup with Bill Hall or an as unnamed catcher for protection.

Outside of BA, does he outperform guys like Uribe in NL-only?

What do you think his value is for a 12-team NL 5x5 auction league?

[joncarlos]

His success last year was very BABIP driven so everyone is projecting some massive regression. I tend to agree with those people - it's rare for guys to come out of the minors at age 26 and hit .300, it's rare for guys to post .387 BABIPs and it's rare for guys with a BB/K rate of 0.16 to succeed at much of anything. For all 3 to come together is pretty impressive. The 24% LD rate says that he could be a good hitter, but I still don't think he's that good.

2010: 362 PA, 308/337/481, 11 HR, 40 R, 52 RBI, 3 steals.
Skills: 4.1% walk rate, 26.7% K rate, .387 BABIP, 1.19 G/F, 24% LD rate, 12.5% HR/FB

Bill James is projecting .287-18-71. The fangraphs fans are projecting .273-15-59. If you get the fans' projection you should be pretty happy. That might come with an OBP around .300 that would cause a lot of teams to bench him... luckily the Astros aren't one of those teams.