Chen, Saunders, Bonifacio, Betancourt or Rollins

[Sour Masher]

These are the 5 candidates for my 15th and final keeper spot in my 14 team, 30 man roster mixed league. We keep 15 and have a $400 cap, so massive inflation. Basically, double top end talent values, and raise up middle tier guys by 50% or so. Here are their salaries:

Wei-Yin Chen $5
Mike Saunders $7
Emilio Bonifacio $7
Rafael Betancourt $7
Jimmy Rollins $41

I'm leaning toward Chen or Rollins right now. Chen, because I like him and think he'll build on last year, and Rollins, because while I think he'll regress, I need a SS and there is nothing available in the auction at SS. But there is an almost unprecedent amount of talent available elsewhere, so while it would be Rollins or bust at SS in the auction for me if I let him go, if he does go for too much, I can spend my money more wisely an a ton of expiring contract talent at other positions. So, do I keep Rollins to ensure I get the best SS available, or let him go to save money to pursue value in the auction?

[Stephen]

Based on what you're saying I might stick with Rollins. Can you give us some specific examples of expensive players. To throw out a few, what are the salaries of Torii Hunter, Alex Rios, Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks?

[Sour Masher]

Based on what you're saying I might stick with Rollins. Can you give us some specific examples of expensive players. To throw out a few, what are the salaries of Torii Hunter, Alex Rios, Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks?

That wouldn't be a representative list, as I have Braun locked up in a long term deal for $25, and Weeks is an expring $21 player. Rios is a real bargin at $6, because he was coming off a crap year. At this point, Hunter can be had for a buck or two in my league.

Because it is a 14 team mixed league, most of the inflation is at the top, with non-kept studs. With everyone keeping 15 at a $400 cap, most folks don't have many holes to fill on auction day and go hard after elite talent at positions of need. The biggest ticket players in last year's auction included Jered Weaver at 69, Cole Hamels at 70, Mark Teixiera at 70, and Albert Pujols at 96. Alexei Ramirez went for 37, just a few bucks less than I landed Rollins at. He is the only decent SS out there this year, but he was so bad last year, and there is so much talent out there this year, I can't see him going for more than $20 this year. If I toss Rollins back at 41, my plan would be to land Ramirez at half that and spend the money saved elsewhere.

[Stephen]

If Teixiera is 70, Pujols is 96 and Alexi Ramirez is $37, then Rollins is a keeper at $41. Maybe even a good one.

[Sour Masher]

At first glance I would go with Chen but it's hard for me to wrap my mind around 100% inflation for the top guys. Rollins is probably easily worth $20.50, so I guess $41 is reasonable? I think I'd still want to go into the auction with more $ rather than more Rollins, though.

I forgot to mention that we have $400 to spend, not the standard $260. That, coupled with 15 keepers, leads to the 100% inflation on top guys.

[B-Fly]

I couldn't stomach the thought of keeping Rollins at $41. Go with Chen.

[B-Fly]

I forgot to mention that we have $400 to spend, not the standard $260. That, coupled with 15 keepers, leads to the 100% inflation on top guys.

Ah, yeah, that's a big "forgot to mention", lol. Now I'd have to rethink Rollins.

[Sour Masher]

If Teixiera is 70, Pujols is 96 and Alexi Ramirez is $37, then Rollins is a keeper at $41. Maybe even a good one.

Yeah, maybe...I could see him going for at much as 60 this year. But I do worry about him--he's getting older, and he is coming off a career year in terms of contact rate. I think he'll regress. This may be as much a strategy question as a keeper question. Do you throw out a guy who is likely to soak up more dollars than he is worth in the auction, even if it is a position of need for you? Or do you keep the best players, even if that are just at a fair value, especially when you are set to contend (I have a heck of a team this year)?

If I toss Rollins back, I'd try to land him in the auction for less or the same, and barring that, try to land Ramirez for half of Rollins cost and use the savings elsewhere. If both go for too much, I'm screwed. No one is out there, but I do have Jean Segura, but I'd hate to have to rely on him this year.

[joncarlos]

Yeah, maybe...I could see him going for at much as 60 this year. But I do worry about him--he's getting older, and he is coming off a career year in terms of contact rate. I think he'll regress. This may be as much a strategy question as a keeper question. Do you throw out a guy who is likely to soak up more dollars than he is worth in the auction, even if it is a position of need for you? Or do you keep the best players, even if that are just at a fair value, especially when you are set to contend (I have a heck of a team this year)?

If I toss Rollins back, I'd try to land him in the auction for less or the same, and barring that, try to land Ramirez for half of Rollins cost and use the savings elsewhere. If both go for too much, I'm screwed. No one is out there, but I do have Jean Segura, but I'd hate to have to rely on him this year.

What does Segura cost?

J-Roll is only 34 and doesn't seem to be getting worse, just a 20/20 low-AVG guy who needs a lot of games to compile good stats. He's been fairly durable but he's aging.

With $400 to spend and crazy inflation, I'd probably keep Rollins just because I can easily see him going for $60+ if there's a bidding war.

[Stephen]

Do you throw out a guy who is likely to soak up more dollars than he is worth in the auction, even if it is a position of need for you? Or do you keep the best players, even if that are just at a fair value, especially when you are set to contend (I have a heck of a team this year)?

My primary goal would be to give myself the best shot at winning going into the auction as I could. I know that is obvious, but I think sometimes we can fall into the trap of overthinking things and trying to get too clever by throwing a guy out for someone else to spend money, but if it's a need for my team that seems counter productive.

Let's look it like this. If Rollins is $41 in a league with a $400 cap, he'd be what $26 in a league in with a $260? I think $26 for Rollins is fair value given that he's a near lock to give you 20/20 with decent RBI and Runs scored.

[Sour Masher]

What does Segura cost?

J-Roll is only 34 and doesn't seem to be getting worse, just a 20/20 low-AVG guy who needs a lot of games to compile good stats. He's been fairly durable but he's aging.

With $400 to spend and crazy inflation, I'd probably keep Rollins just because I can easily see him going for $60+ if there's a bidding war.

Segura is $5, which is the standard salary for minor league call ups. But we have a more lenient and easy to remember 200 AB limit, so I will be sending him down to my minor league team, so he won't be taking a keeper spot. I can call him up post-auction. Yeah, you guys are convincing me on Rollins. I've always liked Rollins, and I was shocked he went for essentially Alexei Ramirez money last auction. It makes me think others may be down on him. Of course, he had a great year last year, so you may be right about how much that might inflate his auction cost.

[Stephen]

Who do you project to be available that would be a better value than Rollins at relatively low inflation though? If there are definitely expiring contract guys or something like that you can count on then it's good, but I try to never speculate blindly. Go in with a plan other than "If Rollins is too high I'm going to get someone else for a value", ya know?

[Sour Masher]

My primary goal would be to give myself the best shot at winning going into the auction as I could. I know that is obvious, but I think sometimes we can fall into the trap of overthinking things and trying to get too clever by throwing a guy out for someone else to spend money, but if it's a need for my team that seems counter productive.

Let's look it like this. If Rollins is $41 in a league with a $400 cap, he'd be what $26 in a league in with a $260? I think $26 for Rollins is fair value given that he's a near lock to give you 20/20 with decent RBI and Runs scored.

Since all the focus is on Rollins, clearly the better player, can I assume everyone is on board with keeping the much better, much more expensive player, if value is fairly equal? I do like Chen, and would love to hear thoughts on his value. But I have SP depth and probably should waste a spot on another one over a SS, unless he is clearly the better value. I guess i'm hung up on the idea that I think Rollins will regress and Chen will improve, but that isn't really all that relevant to who is better for me right now.

[Sour Masher]

Who do you project to be available that would be a better value than Rollins at relatively low inflation though? If there are definitely expiring contract guys or something like that you can count on then it's good, but I try to never speculate blindly. Go in with a plan other than "If Rollins is too high I'm going to get someone else for a value", ya know?

There is a lot of great expiring contracts (Verlander, King Felix, Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, David Wright, just to name a few) , and I do think many won't do the necessary math to adjust auction values for the unusual influx of talent in this year's auction, leading to overspending and late auction value. But that doesn't change that fact that all the auction depth is elsewhere, specifically SP, COR, and OF, not SS or MIF. So, your point is well taken and gives me another nudge toward keeping Rollins--I don't really have a specific plan at MIF if I can't land Rollins back. But I am confident that if I am disciplined and flexible, I will get good value in the auction with the money I could save in not keeping Rollins. It is just unlikely to be MIF value. Such a plan would rely on my ability to trade for a SS post auction. I do love to trade, and frequently make trades, so I may be trusting my ability to trade for a SS more than I should, especially when it would just be simplier to keep Rollins.

[Stephen]

I think it all comes down to how much you value Chen. Personally, I think he's an okay fantasy starter. Nothing special. He doesn't seem to K enough guys to be elite so while he's good value at $5 it just doesn't seem worth it to keep him versus a player at a premium position that is weak in the draft that you need to fill and that you think will likely go for a lot more.