5x5 keeper advice

[bryanbutler]

11 GMs, 15 teams, but mixed from AL and NL. categories: R, RBI, SB-CS, OBA, EBA; W, SV-BS+Ho/2, K, WHIP, ERA. 13 batters, 10 pitchers. can keep any number up to 10. $260 budget for 23 active, and can fill 5 reserve slots at auction. inflation isn't crazy in this league, but is around 25%, though SP tend to come at a premium.

last year was a dump year for me, and i've also got some good guys from my farm squad coming up, but i have some bubble players i have questions on, and i can only keep 10 and have more possibilities than that.

so, my possibles, with salary and contract:
Bryce Harper $4 A
Jesus Montero $4 B
Alex Rios $3 B
Logan Forsythe $1 B
Alejandro De Aza $4 C
Mike Aviles $6 B
Eric Hosmer $4 B
Andy Dirks $1 B
Wei-Yin Chen $1 B
Homer Bailey $2 B
Hiroki Kuroda $13 C
Miguel Gonzalez $1 B
Jordan Zimmerman $19 B

my definite keep list is Harper, Montero, Rios, Chen, and Bailey. almost as certain are De Aza, Hosmer, and Forsythe.

that leaves me 2 slots open for Aviles, Dirks, Kuroda, Gonzalez, and Zimmerman. Aviles is just a bit below value, so he seems one i can let go. Dirks and Gonzalez i both really like at $1, but if i keep them i can't keep either Kuroda or Zimmerman. Kuroda and Zimmerman are around intrinsic value, but as i said above, good SP tend to go at a premium in our league.

comments and advice welcome .

[Lucky]

For me, the obvious keepers are Harper, Montero, Rios, De Aza, Hosmer, Dirks, Bailey, and Jordan Zimmerman. That leaves two slots.

You may want to gamble on Chen, although he doesn't strike out as many as I'd like to see.

Forsythe benefits a lot from your league rules. His doesn't make much contact, but he will take a walk, so his OBP is acceptable. He has a decent upside for power and speed.

I would let Aviles go. He does make contact, but refuses to take a walk, so his OBP is like a bad batting average.

Kuroda was fortunate last year in the AL, but that may not last. He's 38, he throws a ton of ground balls, and his infield defense is shaping up to be old and slow. There's almost no growth potential or profit potential.

Gonzalez was extremely lucky to get out as clean as he did last year. He doesn't have good control, he doesn't strike out a lot of guys, and he offers up a lot of LDs and FBs.

I would take Chen and Forsythe with those last two slots, and leave Gonzalez, Kuroda, and Aviles on the curb. Or, if you are ambitious, try to work some combination of those last five into an upgraded keeper for your #10 and possibly #9 slots.

Caveat...I didn't take into full account the impact of EBA, because I can't remember what it is, but unless it involves getting hit by a pitch I'll stick with my hitter recommendations.

[bryanbutler]

thanks, lucky. interesting take on kuroda. gonzalez is admittedly a gamble, but a $1 one.

EBA is Extra Base Average (EB/AB). read up on your branch rickey - he was one of the first to espouse using OBA and EBA as measures of player hitting ability rather than BA. he called it Extra Base Power, but it's the same thing. he used the sum of the two (OBA and EBP), which is essentially OPS. he also espoused a thing called "clutch," defined as R/(H+BB+HP), but that seems not to have caught on. or, maybe i just don't run in the right SABR circles, and it's actually a recognized quantity there . see: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...o_old_idea.htm

[Lucky]

It depends upon when your freezes, are due, but I'm not sure Gonzalez is guaranteed a spot in the rotation, so until that is cleared up he might be high risk. It's not just the dollar he costs, but the freeze spot, and then the roster spot.

[Stephen]

I agree with the same guys Lucky listed with Chen/Forsythe.

[Gregg]

Since you have inflation and your leagues like pitching I would be adding Zimm and Kuroda to the list. I woulld also probably be trying to package Kuroda and Aviles for a keeper upgrade.

[bryanbutler]

thanks for the comments guys.

freeze lists are due next sunday.

curious that you don't like dirks at a buck, elD. i thought his situation was more a battle that if he won (over boesch), he'd be full-time, not platooned (or at least not a strict platoon)? i'm more worried about his health than his PT though, as he was fairly fragile last year. anyway, if he wins the battle, even if it puts him only into a platoon, i think he's worth the buck.

i think you've all convinced me on gonzalez. i've put out some feelers for trades involving he and aviles.

[bryanbutler]

Well, I think any of Forsythe/Gonzalez/Dirks will be worth a buck, if that's the criteria. But if you're choosing between two sorta "meh" guys, why not go with the MI?

i was thinking of keeping both forsythe and dirks. but your point is well-taken that if it were down to just those two, i might prefer forsythe. i have one more week to see how the IF situation develops in SD, and the OF in det. i'll probably know no more next sunday than i do now, but i can hope ...