NL Only Closer Values

[roadtrip68]

This is in a new league that was started last season. I've got Kimbrel at $25 who I got basically thrown into a trade I made. I've tried to deal him with no bites. I'm sitting on the fence as far as keeping him. Player values go up $5 a year. Eleven teams, NL only, traditional 5x5. I know in the 12 teams Out league (which has a bunch of rj'ers in it) the few quality closers available went for pretty stupid money the last couple of seasons $30+). Last year in this league top closers went for around $20 (Kimbrel, Papelbon). I hate keeping him at that price but with half being kept and not knowing what inflation will be looking like I am very, very tempted. Thoughts? Am I crazy? Throw him back?

[Stephen]

I'd have a hard time give $30 of my budget to a closer. Kimbrel has been absolutely lights out, but closers are so volatile and $30 is a big chunk of you money.

If that many owners are keeping their closers already I think I'd throw Kimbrel back and see if I could get him for $20-$25 rather than $30.

[willthethrill]

I never pay that much for a closer. Wagner in his heyday, Kimbrell now. It's just too much to commit when you can get a Parnell or a Street for 12 or so. I've always liked shopping in the 10-15 range. Gets you two for the price of one.

[roadtrip68]

He was at $20. I'm looking at $25 for this season. Here is who I am assuming will be available. Guys I am not positive of I put their values for this coming season in () if they are going to be kept.

Soriano
Papelbon
Axford
Betancourt ($14)
Putz
Marmol ($16)
League ($15)
Street ($17)
Francisco ($10)
Jansen ($14)

[Stephen]

Who are you other keepers?

[Weapon1]

Kimbrel's a keeper at 25, as he's earned high 20's the past two years, but once you do that you probably should plan on not paying for a second closer at auction. Plenty of places like Colorado, Pitt., Cincy, Miami and SD where the the setup guys could find themselves getting save opps later in the season.

[Big Tymer]

I too think $25 is not terrible for Kimbrel in an only league. Hell, even in a mixed league I'd suspect Rotolab would project him going more than that. The extra K's and strong ratios add a lot to his value beyond saves.

[roadtrip68]

Who are you other keepers?

For sures-
P ALVAREZ 8
A RIZZO 6
G STANTON 41
J KUBEL 10
GIO G 20
H BAILEY 10
AJ BURNETT 7

[Gregg]

It is a coin toss. You probably don't get him back for 20 but I doubt he goes over 25 either. You have the money. Still it is always nice to save a buck or two. Maybe you get him at 23 with a nice new contract? I am not sure there is wrong answer here. It is about how much you like to gamble and how much saving a couple of bucks means to you. I would probably keep him.

[roadtrip68]

No contracts. Players go up $5 a year.

[Stephen]

If you think you'd bid $25 on him in the AH, you might as well keep him. Personally, closers scare me death so I wouldn't. That said - if there is one closer in the league that I'd keep it would be Kimbrel.

[roadtrip68]

So our keepers are due tomorrow. NL only eleven teams, 5x5. I have a little better idea of who will be available for closers-

PAPELBON
SORIANO
PUTZ
AXFORD
LEAGUE
JANSEN
MARMOL
PARNELL

Based on last year and factoring in some inflation I can best guess that Papelbon and Soriano will go in the $20-23 range and down from there on the rest. So, do I keep Kimbrel at $25 or get one of these guys and some cheap closers in waiting? Normally I would never keep a closer that cost that much but not knowing inflation in this league I am tempted. Decisions, decisions.

[whalewang]

I'm surprised that closers are that cheap. In my 9-team NL only the following will be kept:
PAPELBON at $31
AXFORD at $20
PUTZ at $21

I expect Kimbel will probably go for around $35 this year. I'm not a fan of keeping high priced closers but I don't think it would be a mistake in your situation.

[roadtrip68]

One correction, Betancourt just got kept for $14.