Long time, no post. Hi, RJ!
Back when Nate Silver was at Baseball Prospectus, he mentioned an Excel player rating tool he had for personal use that used a probabilistic, iterative approach. I want it.
Somehow, you'd create probabilities of each player being selected at each pick in the draft. (Maybe start with ADP data, smooth it out?) Then update these probabilities after each pick. This would allow you not just to use a marginal value system based on last player picked, but also on gaps between tiers at each position and number of picks before you're up again.
Has anyone seen something like this? Anyone have further ideas on how to create one?
Back when Nate Silver was at Baseball Prospectus, he mentioned an Excel player rating tool he had for personal use that used a probabilistic, iterative approach. I want it.
Somehow, you'd create probabilities of each player being selected at each pick in the draft. (Maybe start with ADP data, smooth it out?) Then update these probabilities after each pick. This would allow you not just to use a marginal value system based on last player picked, but also on gaps between tiers at each position and number of picks before you're up again.
Has anyone seen something like this? Anyone have further ideas on how to create one?
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