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2K13: Increased Playing Time Breakouts
Wow, this now-annual thread is now seven(!) seasons old! As we all know, it’s a challenge to predict which player will have a huge breakout season, but one way to help narrow it down is to take a look at which players should see a marked increase in playing time over the previous season.
Unless you blindly hit the jackpot, it’s very tough to predict a breakout (well, except for rookies!) Even the most unwitting fantasy players land these breakouts every year because, quite frankly, someone has to, and it typically isn’t due to any real factual analysis. Did the guy in your league with Chase Headley really know he was going to have a huge year? I doubt it. As such, many breakouts are very hard to predict, because the past stats don’t indicate a major breakout or performance spike is on the horizon.
But it’s far easier to simply identify a player who will get much more playing time than he did last season or has been moved to a higher profile role, and then voila! It will appear as if he broke out – simply because he put up better stats due to more at-bats or more important innings. Or how about those young players who once were considered “studly” but are now forgotten about after not producing at stud levels? You draft a handful of these guys, one or two of them work out, and then you look like a genius. Ask anyone who drafted Josh Reddick or Pedro Alvarez!
Last year in these very pages we hit home runs with Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, Kyle Seager, Trevor Plouffe, Sal Perez, Allen Craig, AJ Ellis, Ross Detwiler, Alejandro de Aza, Jim Johnson, Mike Minor, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, Josh Reddick, Kris Medlen, Jarrod Parker & Tom Milone, among those who weren’t considered “no-brainer” breakouts (i.e. Mike Trout).
In 2011, we struck fantasy gold with Daniel Hudson, Desmond Jennings, Chris Sale, Ivan Nova, JP Arencibia, Freddie Freeman, Alexi Ogando, Russell Martin, Dillon Gee, Alex Gordon, Cameron Maybin, Matt Joyce, JJ Hardy, Daniel Murphy, Brandon League and Joel Hanrahan.
In 2010 we uncovered Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez, Casey McGehee, Wil Venable, Clay Buchholz, Wade Davis, Phil Hughes, Kelly Johnson, Juan Pierre, Ian Kennedy, Brett Myers, Daric Barton, Geovanny Soto, Brandon Morrow, Johnny Gomes, Colby Lewis, Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Billy Wagner, Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, Josh Hamilton & Ian Desmond.
In 2009 we nailed breakouts and performance spikes from Brett Gardner, Max Scherzer, Justin Upton, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Alberto Callaspo, Denard Span, Russell Branyan, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, Nyjer Morgan, Aaron Hill, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson and Josh Willingham.
In ‘08 we hit paydirt with Mark Reynolds, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Lastings Milledge, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Quentin, Willy Taveras, Justin Duchscherer, Jair Jurrjens, Edinson Volquez, Jon Lester, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Andrew Sonnanstine and Matt Garza.
And finally in 2007 we hit with Chris Duncan, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kelly Johnson, Shane Victorino, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy and Ian Kinsler, among others.
At the very least, these players represented a greater value than you likely paid for them.
So below is a list, some of whom are complete no-brainers, of players who will receive much more playing time than they did in 2012. The qualifications are the player had to have less than 350 ABs (down 25 ABs from last year) in 2012 to qualify, and pitchers should have had 100 IP or less, or are transitioning into different roles.
So without further ado, onto the list for 2K13!
ON THE RISE
Manny Machado, BAL – came up as a 19-year old and hit .262 with 7 HRs in 191 ABs. I’m trying to remember what I was able to do as a 19-year old, and I’m pretty sure hitting major league breaking balls was not on the list. There could be some growing pains this year, but he also could hit 20+ HRs too. There’s still a risk that he slumps and heads back to the minors for more seasoning. Don’t overpay!
Anthony Rizzo, CHC- a year after falling flat with the Padres, Rizzo more than held his own with the Cubs, hitting .285 with 15 HRs and 48 RBIs in 337 ABs. The growth should continue for him, so draft him with confidence.
Will Middlebrooks, BOS- tossed Youk out of Beantown, and he was having a rookie of the year caliber season when he suffered a season-ending injury. Given 500+ ABs, he can become All Star caliber with a potential .290/25/90 slash line.
Chris Parmelee, MIN – has shown good pop in his limited at-bats to date (9 HRs in 268 career ABs), and he bopped minor league pitching to the tune of a 1.102 OPS last season, so he’s ready and Minny is willing and able.
Matt Harvey, NYM- Harvey made a major impact for the Mets in his 59 IP, so much so that he’s pretty much already guaranteed a rotation slot for 2k13 with no inning restrictions. Although he’s a top prospect, he pitched far better in the pros than he did in the minors, so temper expectations a smidge.
Jean Segura, MLW – the main piece of the Zack Greinke deal, Segura is a great mix of speed and hitting ability, and he held his own in a 151 AB cup o’coffee last season. He’s slated to get the starting nod, but the Brew Crew re-signed Alex Gonzalez as an insurance policy, so there’s always that chance that if he starts off slow-- hello AAA. He still should be had relatively cheaply and could become a top 10 option at SS by year’s end.
Josh Rutledge, COL – the 23-year old blew through the minors to the tune of a .320 BA, and when Tulo got his annual injury, Rutledge got the call and never looked back, hitting .274 with 8 HRs, 37 RBIs and 7 SBs in 277 ABs. He’s the leading candidate for the 2B job, so Rutledge can be a cheap 15-15 find on draft day.
Andrelton Simmons, ATL- the top glove man beat out fellow rookie Tyler Pastornicky and then proved he could hit major league pitching, hitting .289 with decent pop in 166 ABs, before ending the year on the DL. Although he didn’t run much in the majors, he’s a double-digit SB type (although he does have a knack for getting caught), so he could possibly become a startable MI that can be had in the late rounds.
Devin Mesoraco, CIN – Mesoraco already has 215 major league ABs but only has a .205 BA to show for it. But this is a guy who had a .302/26/75 line in the minors in 397 ABs, so he could bust out at any time. And it’s not like Ryan Hanigan is a major hurdle to overcome (sorry, Mrs. Hanigan!)
Dan Straily, OAK- the strikeout artist was getting better and better in the minors when he was recalled by the A’s in August, but didn’t light the league on fire right away. He had a 9.7 K/9 rate in the minors, and he has a shot to get a rotation spot from Day 1. He can be a very sneaky source of Ks if given the opportunity.
Brian Dozier, MIN – didn’t excite many with his 2k12 MLB performance, but Dozier is the likely everyday SS for the Twins, and could be a double-digit source of HRs and SBs.
Logan Forsythe, SD- showed solid power/speed numbers in his 315 ABs last year, but uber-prospect Jedd Gyorko may push him into super-sub status. But if he does play regularly, he’s another cheap 10 HR, 15 SB bat.
AJ Griffin, OAK – the rookie impressed right out the gate, going 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 3.4 K/BB. He had a 4.9 K/BB rate over his minor league career, so it’s not a fluke. Buy.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, NYM- Nieuwenhuis is an unexciting prospect who put up decent, if unspectacular numbers in his rookie season with the Mets, but since that outfield is a complete mess, it’s definitely possible he ends up with 500+ ABs in 2k13. If that’s the case – which would be a disaster for Met fans -- he could be a decent bench player/fill-in in fantasy leagues.
Starling Marte, PIT – the speedy 24-year old held his own in 167 major league ABs, showing a very intriguing power/speed combo. He even hit 6 triples! His K/BB is pretty miserable (50/8), but besides that, is the real deal.
Matt Dominguez, HOU – the former top prospect performed admirably in 109 ABs, hitting .284/5/16. He doesn’t run at all, but if he lands the job, he could hit well enough to be a reserve/injury replacement in many deep leagues.
Rob Brantly, MIA- will likely land the starting gig, and may be a poor man’s AJ Ellis. Solid OBP potential.
Drew Smyly, DET- he dominated minor leaguers, and then had a successful rookie campaign, going 4-3 with 94 Ks in 99 IP. His 2.85 K/BB ratio is also impressive for a rookie. He’s likely the #5 starter/long man, so he’ll probably only get 150 IP, but you could do worse.
Brad Lincoln, TOR- Hot Rod Lincoln was a hot commodity during last year’s trade deadline, with his name being bandied about in many rumors. He was finally dealt for Travis Snider, and the Jays plan on using him as a starter during spring training. He had a 3.7 K/BB rate, so if he gets 135-150 IP, he should easily give his fantasy owners a solid ROI.
Jacob Turner, MIA – the former top prospect was traded to Miami mid-year, and really took to South Florida, posting a 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 43 IP with the Fish. Since the team divested itself of all its real talent, Turner should have a rotation spot as long as he’s healthy. Has a chance to put up solid fantasy numbers for his owners.
Mark Rogers, MLW- Rogers was a former top prospect in 2005 and 2006, but then became very injury prone, missing most of three seasons with various woes. He’s out of options, so he should land a spot in Milwaukee’s rotation, and he’s solid when healthy.
Yasmani Grandal, SD – Grandal showed enough in 192 ABs last year to be a star: .297 BA, .394 OBP, 8 HRs, 36 RBIs, but he’s suspended for the season’s first 50 games due to PED usage. Draft him late and stash him on your bench until June.
Pete Kozma, STL – came up as a utility player but made a solid impact in the post-season. Hit .333 during the regular season, but that was far better than his minor league stats indicated. When Furcal gets his annual injury, Kozma should be ready to step in.
Eduardo Nunez, NYY – many expected a solid follow-up year to his solid 2011, but it was not to be. He got just 100 ABs as he battled injuries and ineffectiveness, and was even demoted to the minors. But with the brittle Yanks filled with old timers, Nunez could make for an intriguing late round pickup, especially if he starts to fill-in for Curtis Granderson.
Juan Francisco, ATL – has only Chris Johnson to prevent him from getting playing time. Showed good pop last season (9 HRs in 192 ABs) but may be a part-timer in ’13. Good end gamer.
PAID THEIR DUES
Brandon Moss, OAK – the journeyman was downright Kevin Maas-ish, hitting 21 HRs in just 265 AB, thanks to an absurd 19.8% HR/FB ratio. So while that ratio likely will come back down to earth, the trade of Chris Carter also likely means more playing time for Moss regardless.
Darin Mastroianni, MIN – the late blooming speedster once had 70 SBs in a minor league season, and had 21 in just 163 ABs for the Twinkies last season. Has no pop, but has a knack for getting on base and scoring runs. He probably could be had for a few bucks or a late round pick, and could be a big surprise if he can hit MLB pitching consistently.
Justin Ruggiano, MIA – so far the most exciting thing about Ruggiano was his reply to Ken Rosenthal’s tweet that the Marlins needed a CFer, saying “I got this.” The 30-year old journeyman made for a nice pickup in ’12, hitting .313 with 13 HRs and 14 SBs in just 288 ABs. The Marlins are depleted, so it’s possible Ruggiano can “get this” for better or worse, but just don’t expect miracles.
Tyler Flowers, CWS – the 27-year old backstop has accumulated a .205 BA and 12 HRs over 273 career ABs, and has kind of fallen off his top prospect pedestal after hitting in the .220s at AAA. But AJ Pierzynski has moved on, so the job is his. Another JP Arencibia?
Justin Maxwell, HOU – another journeyman, the 28-year old hit 18 HRs and had 9 SBs in 315 MLB at-bats, but that came with a .229 BA price tag and a horrible 3.6 K/BB ratio. Always had a nice power/speed combo in the minors, but that BA is not likely going north of .250.
Andy Dirks, DET – hit an amazing .322 largely thanks to a .365 BABIP, and also slugged .487 to give him a 130 OPS+. But the Tigers are loaded with spare OF-types (Dirks, Berry, Boesch, A.Garcia) so it’s likely going to be the hot hand who wins the most playing time.
Quintin Berry, DET – see above. The 28-year old had a remarkable 21 SBs with 0 CS, so we know speed is his friend. Twice stole 50+ bases in the minors, so if he gets playing time, think Rajai Davis. If he doesn’t, think Tony Campana. And if he gets demoted, don’t bother thinking about him at all.
Josh Donaldson, OAK – played admirably after his mid-year recall, hitting 9 HRs with 33 RBIs in 274 ABs. Oakland just added Jed Lowrie, so him, Sizemore and Donaldson may all get time at the hot corner. Don’t overpay, but he could be a solid bench option in very deep leagues.
Daniel Nava, BOS – clubs minor league pitching, and seems to start out hot in the majors but then falls back down. Probably nothing more than a waiver wire play, but he’s still in Boston’s solid lineup, so he could be good for a few weeks at a clip.
Nate McLouth, BAL – just when we thought we were nearing the end of “that McLooth kid,” he rises from the ashes to star for the O’s in the post-season. He’s probably not that guy who had 26 HRs and 23 SBs while leading the league in doubles for the Bucs in 2008, but if he gets 350+ ABs, he probably is good for a double-double. Baltimore doesn’t have a lot of options for LF either.
Darin Ruf, PHI – the Ruf! The Ruf! The Ruf is on fire! He smoked MLB pitching in his September callup with a 181 OPS+ over 33 ABs. And he annihilated AA pitchers by jacking 38 bombs and hitting .317 with a .408 OBP.
THE CHANGELINGS
Wade Davis, KC – with the trade to KC means Davis is back in the rotation. He was largely unexciting as a starter for TB for the 2010 and 2011 campaigns, but if he can carry over something resembling his 2012 season across 175 innings, we may have something here.
Aroldis Chapman, CIN – the Cuban Missile had one of the greatest seasons by a closer in MLB history, and now the Reds want to see what he can do over 175-200 IP. Can you imagine if he keeps his same K and BB rates over 200 IP? Great googily moogily.
Brett Myers, CWS – back as a starter after spending most of last season as a closer. As late as 2010, Myers had 14 wins and a 3.14 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP as a starter, so don’t forget about him!
Alexi Ogando, TEX – back as a starter after a successful year as a middle reliever, Ogando could repeat his 2011 campaign (13-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).
Jason Grilli, PIT – Jason Grilli is a guy who has completely morphed into a pitcher who doesn’t even remotely resemble his earlier self. His 13.8 K/9 rate is more than TRIPLE his K% rate from the 2006 season. What gives? If he can keep this up, he’s an elite closer. But can anyone know for sure?
Brandon League, LAD – the Dodgers say he’s the closer, they paid him like he’s the closer, and he performed admirably as the closer after being acquired at the trade deadline last season. But with Kenley Jansen around, it’s hard to say for sure if he will remain the closer. If he does, he could be a bargain.
BLOOM’S OFF THE ROSE
Jerry Sands, PIT – crushes minor league pitchers, can’t hit major league ones. Traded twice in the last six months. Is he a classic Quad-A type, or do the Bucs ride him this season? Only the shadow knows. A good late round flyer.
Andy Oliver, PIT – the former top prospect has never shown it in the stats, getting mauled in the majors and having pretty non-descript minor league stats. Not my cup o’ tea.
Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE – showed some signs of life in Cleveland last year and is being given the first chance at the 3B job, but with Mike Aviles on the bench, his leash may be very short. Like ‘you’re walking your poodle down the street and a pit bull passes by’ short.
Fernando Martinez, HOU – went from appearing 4-times on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list (once as high as #20) to being claimed off waivers by the Astros prior to last season. Talk about a fall for the still-just-24 year old! He showed good power in September (6 HRs in 118 ABs), but this is likely the last chance at a starting job. Still makes for a solid flyer.
JP Arencibia, TOR – great power (43 HRs in 825 ABs) but is a BA torpedo, and his K/BB is gnarly. But Toronto committed to him by trading top prospect Travis d’Arnaud away, so he’s here to stay and WYSIWYG. If his BA improves, he has 30 HR potential, but that’s a big if.
Mitch Moreland, TEX – has only been the strong side of a platoon, but maybe it’s time the Rangers let him play as a full-timer. As a platooner, he’s barely rosterable in deep leagues, but could blossom with FT at-bats.
Adam Lind, TOR – just three seasons removed from a season where he finished 15th for the AL MVP award, Lind found himself demoted to AAA for a good portion of last season. Like Moreland, Lind appears to be now in a platoon as the strong-sider, so his 35 HR seasons may be a thing of the past. He’s still a solid late round bat who could be used in a pinch.
Dee Gordon, LAD – Gordon put up remarkably similar stats in 2012 as he did in 2011, which would be fine if it wasn’t in 100 more plate appearances. After stumbling through the year to the tune of a pipsqueakish 56 OPS+, he was demoted on July 4th and was replaced by Hanley Ramirez. He likely will start the year in AAA, but he could make for a good FAAB pickup at some point this season.
Logan Morrison, MIA – things were ducky for LoMo when he was a top-rated prospect, and then again as a hot-hitting rookie and solid sophomore. But he hit a rough patch in year three, got demoted and spoke out publicly against it, and then his knee gave out, so he suddenly was no longer in the good graces of fantasy players. He may start the year on the DL, but he could also be had far cheaper than he was two years ago.
Jason Castro, HOU – was once a top catching prospect but knee injuries derailed his career, forcing him to miss much of the last three seasons. But he returned in July last year and started to hit, posting a .257/6/29 line in 257 ABs. A flyer at best in deep or AL-only leagues.
Lorenzo Cain, KC – showed he could be a solid power/speed provider in the 222 ABs he got last year, which was curtailed by injuries. If he gets 550 ABs, he could be close to a 20-20 type.
Domonic Brown, PHI – posted amazingly similar stats at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012, which has to be disheartening for the Phils and his supporters, since those stats just weren’t very good. In 2011 I went to a SWB Yankee game when they were playing D. Brown and his Lehigh Valley squad, and the place sold out and the air was electric. Yes, Domonic had the power to turn air into electricity. Now, no one knows who he is any longer. And if they do know, they probably don't care. He may be in a platoon situation, and if he fails, there’s also Darin Ruf lying in wait. A very risky play for 2013.
Ian Stewart, CHC – the bloom’s been off this rose for awhile, and at this point, Stewart is just trying to prove he still belongs in the majors. He’s been a disaster the last two years, hitting a combined .183 with a miniscule 50 OPS+, so this is likely to be his last shot before he’s taking the red-eye to Japan. He probably won’t be drafted except in the deepest of leagues, so he may make for a decent waiver wire play at best.
Peter Bourjos, LAA – went from a solid contributor in 2011 to being glued to the bench with no value as Kendry Morales and wunderkind Mike Trout took all the available spots. But with Torii Hunter gone and Vernon Wells taking Bourjos’ spot on the pine, he has reclaimed his CF job. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be that double-digit HR/SB guy once again.
Gorkys Hernandez, MIA – the former top prospect never progressed as expected and was shipped to Miami for Gaby Sanchez. Since he’s still just 25, there’s still time and in Miami there’s the opportunity. Could be a cheap source of power and speed, but watch out for the killer BA.
Brett Jackson, CHC – failed miserably in a 120 AB cup o’coffee (.175 BA, 0 SB with 3 CS, 59 whiffs) and Theo says he’s starting the year again at AAA. He strikes out by the boatload – a whopping 39% at AAA in 2012 – and that may prove to be his ultimate undoing, but if his new swing that he’s showing off helps, he could be a solid fantasy contributor. Maybe not this year for fantasy players, though.
Randall Delgado, ARZ – traded to the D’Backs in the Upton deal, there may not be room for Delgado in their rotation just yet, and he was pretty unimpressive with Atlanta last year (4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in 93 IP). Spring training will likely decide his value for 2k13, so watch closely if he gets the #5 spot.
MOVIN’ OUT (ELI WHITESIDE’S SONG)
Chris Carter, HOU – acquired by the Astros in the Lowrie deal, Carter finally proved he belonged in the majors with a dazzling 16 HRs in just 218 ABs last year. He hit lefties and righties equally well, so given his new surroundings (i.e. a talentless baseball club), there’s a great chance he gets a ton of ABs.
Jed Lowrie, OAK – Lowrie’s power spiked last season as he clubbed 16 HRs in 340 ABs, which was nearly as many as he had in his other 800 career ABs. He also improved his K/BB ratio impressively, from 2.61 to 1.51. He may not have a set position in Oakland, but he’ll get them somewhere as a super-sub type.
Chris Young, OAK – after an up and down career in Arizona he moves his tack to Oakland. He still has trouble with RHPs, so he may become a weak-side platooner, which would reduce his value even more than it already is.
Tyler Greene, HOU – takes over at SS for the departed Lowrie in HOU, Greene was a double digit HR/SB guy last year, but still saddles fantasy owners with a putrid BA. End gamer only.
John Jaso, OAK – acquired in the 3-team Mike Morse deal, Jaso is an OBP beast who amazingly draws more BBs than Ks. He also chipped in 10 HRs and 50 RBIs in just 294 ABs in ’12, and likely pushes Derek Norris aside in Oakland as the everyday backstop. Could be hugely undervalued on draft day.
Jonny Gomes, BOS – the journeyman OFer ends up in Beantown with a great opportunity to get full-time at bats (which he did only once in his career, in 2010 with Cincy). Could be a solid if unspectacular late round pick with a .250-70-20-80 line.
Emilio Bonifacio, TOR – now with his 4th major league team since 2007, Bonifacio was burning up the basepaths with 30 SBs in only 244 ABs last year when he hurt his thumb, and now moves into Toronto’s loaded lineup. If healthy, could be a run scoring and stolen base machine.
THE HURT LOCKER
Jorge de la Rosa, COL – missed all but 3 games last season, but this was a guy who had 16 wins and struck out 193 in 2009. Keep an eye out.
Carl Crawford, LAD – what to make of CC? It’s unlikely he’s the same guy who used to hit .300 with 15 HRs and 55 SBs, but is he the guy who hit .255 with 18 SBs in 2011 for Boston? He may be a big steal or huge bust on draft day, that’s how much his value is up in the air. Don’t overpay!
Brett Gardner, NYY – an elbow injury sunk his 2012 campaign, but remember that he did lead the league in SBs in 2011.
Andy Pettitte, NYY – after his brief retirement, Pettitte can back and pitched better than ever, with a remarkable 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 75 IP. He even was near his career high K%! He seems to be undervalued in drafts, so he’s a great end of your rotation pick.
Mariano Rivera, NYY - missed most of the season with a blown out knee, the first major injury of his Hall of Fame career. At 43, can he return to his earlier greatness? Well, since he is a robot, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Victor Martinez, DET – catcher eligibility or no, VMart returns after missing all of 2012. He’ll lose some value in your league if he’s a DH-only, but regardless, he should get back to his prior productive ways.
Brett Anderson, OAK – missed the majority of last year and half the year before, but when he came back, he was the same pitcher he used to be. If he’s healthy is spring training, I’d buy.
Ryan Madson, LAA – uh oh, the dreaded “discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow.” That’s never a good sign. I’ll let my leaguemates draft him and if they get a value, good for them.
Jose Bautista, TOR – despite having only 332 ABs, the power is still there (27 HRs), so he was on pace for yet another 40+ HR season. His BA plunged from .300 to .241, but it looks like a .215 BABIP was the culprit here. As long as his wrist is healthy, he’s a strong buy.
David Ortiz, BOS – Big Papi was on his way to having a monster year when he went down with an Achilles injury (.318/23/60 in just 324 ABs). It’s starting to look more and more like 2009 was an aberration, and should be business as usual for the big man. Age has to catch up with him one day (unless he’s a robot like Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter), but that day isn’t likely to be in 2013.
Jonathan Lucroy, MLW – he missed much of June and July with a bizarre broken hand injury (“a suitcase fell on it”), but he had a great year and was consistent throughout -- .320/12/58 in 316 ABs. A .338 BABIP is likely to come down a bit, so don’t expect such a lofty average, but he should produce at a fraction of the cost of some bigger name catchers.
Luke Scott, TB – wasn’t having a great year when it ended by an injury, but if he gets 500 PAs he should be able to swat 25 HRs. So take that for what it’s worth.
Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS – Ellsbury followed up his amazing 2011 campaign with a miserable, injury-plagued 2012, where he showed none of the power and only some of the speed he’s displayed in his career. It’s hard to value Ellsbury correctly because, while talented, his stats have been all over the map. He hit 32 of his career 56 HRs in a single season; he stole 70 bases one year and in his next full season he stole just 39; and he’s missed huge portions of two of the last three seasons. Since freak injuries caused him to miss the time I wouldn’t label him as “injury prone,” but it’s still hard to ignore the time lost. But keep in mind: when healthy, he’s routinely been an MVP candidate.
Jason Werth, WAS – like Ellsbury, Werth is another enigmatic player. He has been so up and down over the last five seasons, it’s hard to know exactly who it is you’re drafting. Is he the .300 hitter he was last year in 300 ABs? Is he the guy who blasted 36 HRs and stole 20 bases in 2009? Or is he the .232 hitter who had only 58 RBIs in 2011? Let’s go middle of the road and call him a .270/20/70/15 guy and try not to be disappointed.
Chase Utley, PHI – Utley just declared himself “healthier than he’s been in years,” which is usually the kiss of death. He hasn’t played more than 115 games since 2009, his ratios have plunged, and at age 34, it’s hard to say if he ever will get back to anything resembling the stud 2B he was in the middle of the decade. He’s a gamble for sure.
Stephen Drew, BOS – after four relatively healthy and solid years, the last two seasons have been unmitigated disasters for Drew. And he’s now as injury prone as his bro, JD. Perhaps Boston will be his bounce back spot, but don’t overpay!
Carlos Quentin, SD – he’s never played more than 131 games in any season, so if you get anything more than that, consider yourself a lucky man. And in all but one season of his seven year career, he’s hit lower than .261, so he’s also one-dimensional. Definitely don’t overpay and don’t expect more than 450 ABs.
Evan Longoria, TB – a hammy injury forced Longo to miss May, June & July, but he was a force when he actually was on the field. As long as he’s healthy, there’s little to be concerned about here.
Ryan Howard, PHI – He missed 90 games with that Achilles tear he got in the 2011 NLCS, and when he returned was a shell of his former self (.219 BA, 34% K Ratio). Probably isn’t a candidate to hit 45+ HRs again, but fantasy owners should be able to expect .260/30/100 if he’s healthy.
Travis Hafner, NYY – joins the Bronx chapter of the AARP after a 10-year stretch in Cleveland, but the 36-year old hasn’t played more than 118 games since the ’07 season. A decent bench bat when healthy, but more than likely will be clogging up one of your team’s DL spots sooner rather than later.
Jason Bay, SEA – the NY Mets mercifully let him go after handing out one of the more disastrous contracts in recent memory (and the Mets have handed out many disastrous contracts). It’s hard to believe Bay signed with the Mets after a season in which he hit 36 HRs, drove in 119, and had 13 SBs. Maybe Bay punk’d the Mets by having his identical twin play instead while he was off in the Bahamas. Since he won’t cost much in the draft, take a late round flyer on him and hope he only had Eddie Whitson-disease.
Troy Tulowitzki, COL – groin surgery ruined his and his fantasy owners seasons last year, but when healthy, he’s the best hitting SS in the game. He’s still a surefire 1st round pick even if the “injury prone” label is slowly starting to apply here……
Lance Berkman, TEX – Fat Elvis couldn’t get out of his own way last season, as he was limited to 81 ABs just one year removed from an almost miraculous comeback campaign. At age 37, was 2011 a dead cat bounce? Or can we write off last year and hope 2010 was the aberration? I’d hope for a copy of 2009 (.274/25/80) and anything else is gravy. And Fat Elvis loves gravy.
Nolan Reimold, BAL –epitomizes the term “injury prone.” He was finally starting to look like the top prospect he once was when yet another injury hit (neck/back spasms, then finally surgery) and limited his season to just 16 games. It’s hard to predict his playing time in 2013, so bid cautiously and hope for anything.
Brandon Beachy, ATL/Corey Luebke, SD – were having Cy Young worthy campaigns when Tommy John came calling in June (“Hi Brandon? Corey? This is Tommy.”) The hope is that they’re both back by the All Star Break, but it’s hard to say if either will have any real value in 2013.
John Danks, CWS – the last two seasons have been miserable for Danks, and his 2012 was cut short after only nine awful starts. But from 2008-2011 he was Mr. Consistency, so if healthy, a 13 win, 3.75 ERA and 150 K season is definitely doable.
Jeff Niemann, TB – Niemann is battling for the Rays’ #5 rotation slot but may end up as a long reliever. In either case, Niemann is nothing more than a serviceable bench pitching option at best.
THE STUD ROOKIES
Travis D’Arnaud, NYM – it’s just a matter of time before D’Arnaud is the Mets everyday catcher, and with that, could instantly become one of the best hitting catchers in the league. But will that day come to make re-drafters in 2013 happy?
Adam Eaton, ARZ – Not that Adam Eaton. This guy is the one who bruised minor league pitching to the tune of a .381 BA(!) and .456 OBP in 2012, and is the likely everyday CFer and leadoff hitters for the D’Backs. While he won’t be nearly that good, he still had a .382 OBP in his 103 PA cup of coffee, so he will get on base and score runs. Could be a huge draft day bargain.
Tyler Skaggs, ARZ – has dominated in the minors (career 2.98 ERA, 10.0 K/9), Skaggs may have the inside pitch on the #5 spot in the rotation. Daniel Hudson is hurt, but Randall Delgado looms. A solid gamble.
Will Myers, TB – the prize of the 2013 off-season hot stove league, Myers takes his wares (.314/37/109 at AA and AAA in ’12) to Tampa. But we all know we won’t see him until June at the earliest, so don’t get anxious!
Trevor Bauer, CLE – will likely find his way into CLE’s rotation, the #14 rated prospect by Baseball America mowed down hitters at AA and AAA last year. He walks a bunch (4.2 per 9 career average), so be careful!
Jurickson Profar, TEX – the #1 rated prospect by both Baseball America and MLB.com, Profar is a power/speed SS who may still find playing time in Texas crowded infield, but likely will spend half the season at AAA.
Leonys Martin, TEX – the Cuban refugee crushed minor league pitching in both 2011 and 2012, but his history shows he takes a year to adjust to the next level. He was overmatched at the plate in the majors in 2012, so is 2013 his year? Hmmmm?
Zach Wheeler, NYM – the Mets’ prized pitching specimen was rated the #11 prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Has only 33 IP at AAA and he still walks too many (4.2/9), so we likely won’t see him in the bigs until the summer.
Shelby Miller, STL – rated the #6 prospect by Baseball America, Miller did not have a great 2012 at AAA Memphis – 4.74 ERA, 1.37 WHIP – but he did strike out almost 11 batters per 9 innings. 2013 could be a growth year for him in the majors – and he just reported shoulder tightness -- so he may do your team more harm than good, but definitely worth a gamble.
Dylan Bundy, BAL – the #2 overall prospect by Baseball America, the 20-year old dominated in his first professional season, going from A ball to the majors. In the Sally League, he held batters to just 5 hits and 2 walks (with 40 Ks) in 30 innings! But the AL East is not the Sally League. Given the state of the O’s rotation, he has a damned good chance of taking a rotation spot sooner rather than later. I think he’ll be up for good in May.
Bruce Rondon, DET – can a guy who has not pitched a single MLB inning start from jump as the closer of a World Series-caliber team? He throws peas at 100 mph, but even while dominating at three levels of the minors last year, he still has an alarming 5.1 career BB% rate. It could be asking too much too soon out of this 22-year old.
Mike Olt, TEX – clubbed minor league pitching (28 HRs in 354 ABs in 2012) but did little in his MLB recall. Has defensive issues, but the Rangers could use his bat especially after losing Wonderboy. He’s a solid late round gamble in redraft leagues.
Jedd Gyorko, SD – has torched minor leaguers so far (.319/.385/.529 career stats) and the thinking is that San Diego will be “forced” to use him at 2B and displace Logan Forsythe. If recalled, he could make an immediate fantasy impact.
Trevor Rosenthal, STL – an invaluable member of the Cards post-season run, he allowed just 2 hits and 2 walks in 8 2/3 IP while whiffing 15. If he gets a shot at a rotation spot, look out.
Chris Archer, TB – another Rays power arm, Archer may win the #5 job out of camp. He still walks way too many (5.1/9 career minor league average), but if he can control that, he can be a valuable fantasy asset in 2013.
Ryu Hyun-Jin, LAD – the pudgy pitcher from South Korea flummoxed batters over his 7-year career with an 8.8 K/9 rate. But he also reported 40 lbs. overweight, was winded in his first major league workout, and said “who cares, I’m a pitcher. “ Welcome back to the majors, David Wells! While that’s a bit scary, he could be a solid starter in Dodger Stadium, so don’t overlook him!
THOSE OTHER ROOKIES
Adeiny Hechavarria, MIA – decent prospect, has typical middle infielder power/speed. He could be OK in small doses, like bad cough syrup.
Hiroyuki Nakajima, OAK – likely to be Oakland’s starting SS, Nakajima had an 11-year All Star career in the Japanese league and showed a good power/speed profile with solid on-base ability. He seems to be drafted as a bottom rung option at SS, but he could be an Alexei Ramirez type if his talent translates.
Kyuji Fujikawa, CHC – a dominant closer for Hanshin in the Japanese league, Fujikawa could press Carlos Marmol for the job right out the gate. Fujikawa has a career 4.42 K/BB ratio, so Marmol better watch his back. And his walks.
Avisail Garcia, DET – the 21-year old played well in his September recall and hit well in the ALCS, and it’s not like RF is Detroit’s strong spot (Boesch, Dirks, Berry, et al). Has a good power/speed profile and could easily become the everyday option there soon enough.
Didi Gregorious, ARZ – great glove, no hit. If your league uses Range Factor, he could be valuable, but otherwise, has little power and poor baserunning ability (44 SBs, 30 CS in his minor league career). Great name, though. Whenever I hear it, I think of that hot Latina dancer from "Grease" who almost won the dance-off. So I'm officially saddling Gregorious with the nickname "Cha Cha."
JJ Hoover, CIN – the Reds rotation is pretty full, but Hoover has mowed down minor leaguers and will find himself as a rotation contender or in the pen in 2013. If Broxton fails, Hoover may even be a saves candidate.
Wily Peralta, MLW –the #69-rated prospect by Baseball America, he did well in a 29 inning interview in 2012 and may win one of the open Brewer rotation slots out of camp.
Casey Kelly, SD- the former top prospect got his first taste of the pros and got lit up, posting a miserable 6.21 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 29 innings. He tended to give up hits in the minors, so 2k13 could be more of a learning experience for him, so make sure he learns while he’s not in your lineup.
SKILLS, NOT ROLES
Vinnie Pestano, CLE – one of the best middle men in baseball, the closer job is clearly his if and when Chris Perez moves on. In a perfect world, he’s the closer and Perez the setup man.
Kelvin Herrera, KC – had better numbers than Greg Holland, but did not get the closer job after Broxton was dealt.
David Hernandez, ARZ – has gotten progressively better every single season, and JJ Putz is not exactly the picture of health.
Jake McGee, TB – had an awesome season (55 IP, 1.95 ERA, 0.795 WHIP, 73 Ks) and if Fernando Rodney were to ever falter, McGee could take over pretty cleanly.
Wow, this now-annual thread is now seven(!) seasons old! As we all know, it’s a challenge to predict which player will have a huge breakout season, but one way to help narrow it down is to take a look at which players should see a marked increase in playing time over the previous season.
Unless you blindly hit the jackpot, it’s very tough to predict a breakout (well, except for rookies!) Even the most unwitting fantasy players land these breakouts every year because, quite frankly, someone has to, and it typically isn’t due to any real factual analysis. Did the guy in your league with Chase Headley really know he was going to have a huge year? I doubt it. As such, many breakouts are very hard to predict, because the past stats don’t indicate a major breakout or performance spike is on the horizon.
But it’s far easier to simply identify a player who will get much more playing time than he did last season or has been moved to a higher profile role, and then voila! It will appear as if he broke out – simply because he put up better stats due to more at-bats or more important innings. Or how about those young players who once were considered “studly” but are now forgotten about after not producing at stud levels? You draft a handful of these guys, one or two of them work out, and then you look like a genius. Ask anyone who drafted Josh Reddick or Pedro Alvarez!
Last year in these very pages we hit home runs with Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, Kyle Seager, Trevor Plouffe, Sal Perez, Allen Craig, AJ Ellis, Ross Detwiler, Alejandro de Aza, Jim Johnson, Mike Minor, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, Josh Reddick, Kris Medlen, Jarrod Parker & Tom Milone, among those who weren’t considered “no-brainer” breakouts (i.e. Mike Trout).
In 2011, we struck fantasy gold with Daniel Hudson, Desmond Jennings, Chris Sale, Ivan Nova, JP Arencibia, Freddie Freeman, Alexi Ogando, Russell Martin, Dillon Gee, Alex Gordon, Cameron Maybin, Matt Joyce, JJ Hardy, Daniel Murphy, Brandon League and Joel Hanrahan.
In 2010 we uncovered Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez, Casey McGehee, Wil Venable, Clay Buchholz, Wade Davis, Phil Hughes, Kelly Johnson, Juan Pierre, Ian Kennedy, Brett Myers, Daric Barton, Geovanny Soto, Brandon Morrow, Johnny Gomes, Colby Lewis, Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Billy Wagner, Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, Josh Hamilton & Ian Desmond.
In 2009 we nailed breakouts and performance spikes from Brett Gardner, Max Scherzer, Justin Upton, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Alberto Callaspo, Denard Span, Russell Branyan, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, Nyjer Morgan, Aaron Hill, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson and Josh Willingham.
In ‘08 we hit paydirt with Mark Reynolds, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Lastings Milledge, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Quentin, Willy Taveras, Justin Duchscherer, Jair Jurrjens, Edinson Volquez, Jon Lester, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Andrew Sonnanstine and Matt Garza.
And finally in 2007 we hit with Chris Duncan, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kelly Johnson, Shane Victorino, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy and Ian Kinsler, among others.
At the very least, these players represented a greater value than you likely paid for them.
So below is a list, some of whom are complete no-brainers, of players who will receive much more playing time than they did in 2012. The qualifications are the player had to have less than 350 ABs (down 25 ABs from last year) in 2012 to qualify, and pitchers should have had 100 IP or less, or are transitioning into different roles.
So without further ado, onto the list for 2K13!
ON THE RISE
Manny Machado, BAL – came up as a 19-year old and hit .262 with 7 HRs in 191 ABs. I’m trying to remember what I was able to do as a 19-year old, and I’m pretty sure hitting major league breaking balls was not on the list. There could be some growing pains this year, but he also could hit 20+ HRs too. There’s still a risk that he slumps and heads back to the minors for more seasoning. Don’t overpay!
Anthony Rizzo, CHC- a year after falling flat with the Padres, Rizzo more than held his own with the Cubs, hitting .285 with 15 HRs and 48 RBIs in 337 ABs. The growth should continue for him, so draft him with confidence.
Will Middlebrooks, BOS- tossed Youk out of Beantown, and he was having a rookie of the year caliber season when he suffered a season-ending injury. Given 500+ ABs, he can become All Star caliber with a potential .290/25/90 slash line.
Chris Parmelee, MIN – has shown good pop in his limited at-bats to date (9 HRs in 268 career ABs), and he bopped minor league pitching to the tune of a 1.102 OPS last season, so he’s ready and Minny is willing and able.
Matt Harvey, NYM- Harvey made a major impact for the Mets in his 59 IP, so much so that he’s pretty much already guaranteed a rotation slot for 2k13 with no inning restrictions. Although he’s a top prospect, he pitched far better in the pros than he did in the minors, so temper expectations a smidge.
Jean Segura, MLW – the main piece of the Zack Greinke deal, Segura is a great mix of speed and hitting ability, and he held his own in a 151 AB cup o’coffee last season. He’s slated to get the starting nod, but the Brew Crew re-signed Alex Gonzalez as an insurance policy, so there’s always that chance that if he starts off slow-- hello AAA. He still should be had relatively cheaply and could become a top 10 option at SS by year’s end.
Josh Rutledge, COL – the 23-year old blew through the minors to the tune of a .320 BA, and when Tulo got his annual injury, Rutledge got the call and never looked back, hitting .274 with 8 HRs, 37 RBIs and 7 SBs in 277 ABs. He’s the leading candidate for the 2B job, so Rutledge can be a cheap 15-15 find on draft day.
Andrelton Simmons, ATL- the top glove man beat out fellow rookie Tyler Pastornicky and then proved he could hit major league pitching, hitting .289 with decent pop in 166 ABs, before ending the year on the DL. Although he didn’t run much in the majors, he’s a double-digit SB type (although he does have a knack for getting caught), so he could possibly become a startable MI that can be had in the late rounds.
Devin Mesoraco, CIN – Mesoraco already has 215 major league ABs but only has a .205 BA to show for it. But this is a guy who had a .302/26/75 line in the minors in 397 ABs, so he could bust out at any time. And it’s not like Ryan Hanigan is a major hurdle to overcome (sorry, Mrs. Hanigan!)
Dan Straily, OAK- the strikeout artist was getting better and better in the minors when he was recalled by the A’s in August, but didn’t light the league on fire right away. He had a 9.7 K/9 rate in the minors, and he has a shot to get a rotation spot from Day 1. He can be a very sneaky source of Ks if given the opportunity.
Brian Dozier, MIN – didn’t excite many with his 2k12 MLB performance, but Dozier is the likely everyday SS for the Twins, and could be a double-digit source of HRs and SBs.
Logan Forsythe, SD- showed solid power/speed numbers in his 315 ABs last year, but uber-prospect Jedd Gyorko may push him into super-sub status. But if he does play regularly, he’s another cheap 10 HR, 15 SB bat.
AJ Griffin, OAK – the rookie impressed right out the gate, going 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 3.4 K/BB. He had a 4.9 K/BB rate over his minor league career, so it’s not a fluke. Buy.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, NYM- Nieuwenhuis is an unexciting prospect who put up decent, if unspectacular numbers in his rookie season with the Mets, but since that outfield is a complete mess, it’s definitely possible he ends up with 500+ ABs in 2k13. If that’s the case – which would be a disaster for Met fans -- he could be a decent bench player/fill-in in fantasy leagues.
Starling Marte, PIT – the speedy 24-year old held his own in 167 major league ABs, showing a very intriguing power/speed combo. He even hit 6 triples! His K/BB is pretty miserable (50/8), but besides that, is the real deal.
Matt Dominguez, HOU – the former top prospect performed admirably in 109 ABs, hitting .284/5/16. He doesn’t run at all, but if he lands the job, he could hit well enough to be a reserve/injury replacement in many deep leagues.
Rob Brantly, MIA- will likely land the starting gig, and may be a poor man’s AJ Ellis. Solid OBP potential.
Drew Smyly, DET- he dominated minor leaguers, and then had a successful rookie campaign, going 4-3 with 94 Ks in 99 IP. His 2.85 K/BB ratio is also impressive for a rookie. He’s likely the #5 starter/long man, so he’ll probably only get 150 IP, but you could do worse.
Brad Lincoln, TOR- Hot Rod Lincoln was a hot commodity during last year’s trade deadline, with his name being bandied about in many rumors. He was finally dealt for Travis Snider, and the Jays plan on using him as a starter during spring training. He had a 3.7 K/BB rate, so if he gets 135-150 IP, he should easily give his fantasy owners a solid ROI.
Jacob Turner, MIA – the former top prospect was traded to Miami mid-year, and really took to South Florida, posting a 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 43 IP with the Fish. Since the team divested itself of all its real talent, Turner should have a rotation spot as long as he’s healthy. Has a chance to put up solid fantasy numbers for his owners.
Mark Rogers, MLW- Rogers was a former top prospect in 2005 and 2006, but then became very injury prone, missing most of three seasons with various woes. He’s out of options, so he should land a spot in Milwaukee’s rotation, and he’s solid when healthy.
Yasmani Grandal, SD – Grandal showed enough in 192 ABs last year to be a star: .297 BA, .394 OBP, 8 HRs, 36 RBIs, but he’s suspended for the season’s first 50 games due to PED usage. Draft him late and stash him on your bench until June.
Pete Kozma, STL – came up as a utility player but made a solid impact in the post-season. Hit .333 during the regular season, but that was far better than his minor league stats indicated. When Furcal gets his annual injury, Kozma should be ready to step in.
Eduardo Nunez, NYY – many expected a solid follow-up year to his solid 2011, but it was not to be. He got just 100 ABs as he battled injuries and ineffectiveness, and was even demoted to the minors. But with the brittle Yanks filled with old timers, Nunez could make for an intriguing late round pickup, especially if he starts to fill-in for Curtis Granderson.
Juan Francisco, ATL – has only Chris Johnson to prevent him from getting playing time. Showed good pop last season (9 HRs in 192 ABs) but may be a part-timer in ’13. Good end gamer.
PAID THEIR DUES
Brandon Moss, OAK – the journeyman was downright Kevin Maas-ish, hitting 21 HRs in just 265 AB, thanks to an absurd 19.8% HR/FB ratio. So while that ratio likely will come back down to earth, the trade of Chris Carter also likely means more playing time for Moss regardless.
Darin Mastroianni, MIN – the late blooming speedster once had 70 SBs in a minor league season, and had 21 in just 163 ABs for the Twinkies last season. Has no pop, but has a knack for getting on base and scoring runs. He probably could be had for a few bucks or a late round pick, and could be a big surprise if he can hit MLB pitching consistently.
Justin Ruggiano, MIA – so far the most exciting thing about Ruggiano was his reply to Ken Rosenthal’s tweet that the Marlins needed a CFer, saying “I got this.” The 30-year old journeyman made for a nice pickup in ’12, hitting .313 with 13 HRs and 14 SBs in just 288 ABs. The Marlins are depleted, so it’s possible Ruggiano can “get this” for better or worse, but just don’t expect miracles.
Tyler Flowers, CWS – the 27-year old backstop has accumulated a .205 BA and 12 HRs over 273 career ABs, and has kind of fallen off his top prospect pedestal after hitting in the .220s at AAA. But AJ Pierzynski has moved on, so the job is his. Another JP Arencibia?
Justin Maxwell, HOU – another journeyman, the 28-year old hit 18 HRs and had 9 SBs in 315 MLB at-bats, but that came with a .229 BA price tag and a horrible 3.6 K/BB ratio. Always had a nice power/speed combo in the minors, but that BA is not likely going north of .250.
Andy Dirks, DET – hit an amazing .322 largely thanks to a .365 BABIP, and also slugged .487 to give him a 130 OPS+. But the Tigers are loaded with spare OF-types (Dirks, Berry, Boesch, A.Garcia) so it’s likely going to be the hot hand who wins the most playing time.
Quintin Berry, DET – see above. The 28-year old had a remarkable 21 SBs with 0 CS, so we know speed is his friend. Twice stole 50+ bases in the minors, so if he gets playing time, think Rajai Davis. If he doesn’t, think Tony Campana. And if he gets demoted, don’t bother thinking about him at all.
Josh Donaldson, OAK – played admirably after his mid-year recall, hitting 9 HRs with 33 RBIs in 274 ABs. Oakland just added Jed Lowrie, so him, Sizemore and Donaldson may all get time at the hot corner. Don’t overpay, but he could be a solid bench option in very deep leagues.
Daniel Nava, BOS – clubs minor league pitching, and seems to start out hot in the majors but then falls back down. Probably nothing more than a waiver wire play, but he’s still in Boston’s solid lineup, so he could be good for a few weeks at a clip.
Nate McLouth, BAL – just when we thought we were nearing the end of “that McLooth kid,” he rises from the ashes to star for the O’s in the post-season. He’s probably not that guy who had 26 HRs and 23 SBs while leading the league in doubles for the Bucs in 2008, but if he gets 350+ ABs, he probably is good for a double-double. Baltimore doesn’t have a lot of options for LF either.
Darin Ruf, PHI – the Ruf! The Ruf! The Ruf is on fire! He smoked MLB pitching in his September callup with a 181 OPS+ over 33 ABs. And he annihilated AA pitchers by jacking 38 bombs and hitting .317 with a .408 OBP.
THE CHANGELINGS
Wade Davis, KC – with the trade to KC means Davis is back in the rotation. He was largely unexciting as a starter for TB for the 2010 and 2011 campaigns, but if he can carry over something resembling his 2012 season across 175 innings, we may have something here.
Aroldis Chapman, CIN – the Cuban Missile had one of the greatest seasons by a closer in MLB history, and now the Reds want to see what he can do over 175-200 IP. Can you imagine if he keeps his same K and BB rates over 200 IP? Great googily moogily.
Brett Myers, CWS – back as a starter after spending most of last season as a closer. As late as 2010, Myers had 14 wins and a 3.14 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP as a starter, so don’t forget about him!
Alexi Ogando, TEX – back as a starter after a successful year as a middle reliever, Ogando could repeat his 2011 campaign (13-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).
Jason Grilli, PIT – Jason Grilli is a guy who has completely morphed into a pitcher who doesn’t even remotely resemble his earlier self. His 13.8 K/9 rate is more than TRIPLE his K% rate from the 2006 season. What gives? If he can keep this up, he’s an elite closer. But can anyone know for sure?
Brandon League, LAD – the Dodgers say he’s the closer, they paid him like he’s the closer, and he performed admirably as the closer after being acquired at the trade deadline last season. But with Kenley Jansen around, it’s hard to say for sure if he will remain the closer. If he does, he could be a bargain.
BLOOM’S OFF THE ROSE
Jerry Sands, PIT – crushes minor league pitchers, can’t hit major league ones. Traded twice in the last six months. Is he a classic Quad-A type, or do the Bucs ride him this season? Only the shadow knows. A good late round flyer.
Andy Oliver, PIT – the former top prospect has never shown it in the stats, getting mauled in the majors and having pretty non-descript minor league stats. Not my cup o’ tea.
Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE – showed some signs of life in Cleveland last year and is being given the first chance at the 3B job, but with Mike Aviles on the bench, his leash may be very short. Like ‘you’re walking your poodle down the street and a pit bull passes by’ short.
Fernando Martinez, HOU – went from appearing 4-times on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list (once as high as #20) to being claimed off waivers by the Astros prior to last season. Talk about a fall for the still-just-24 year old! He showed good power in September (6 HRs in 118 ABs), but this is likely the last chance at a starting job. Still makes for a solid flyer.
JP Arencibia, TOR – great power (43 HRs in 825 ABs) but is a BA torpedo, and his K/BB is gnarly. But Toronto committed to him by trading top prospect Travis d’Arnaud away, so he’s here to stay and WYSIWYG. If his BA improves, he has 30 HR potential, but that’s a big if.
Mitch Moreland, TEX – has only been the strong side of a platoon, but maybe it’s time the Rangers let him play as a full-timer. As a platooner, he’s barely rosterable in deep leagues, but could blossom with FT at-bats.
Adam Lind, TOR – just three seasons removed from a season where he finished 15th for the AL MVP award, Lind found himself demoted to AAA for a good portion of last season. Like Moreland, Lind appears to be now in a platoon as the strong-sider, so his 35 HR seasons may be a thing of the past. He’s still a solid late round bat who could be used in a pinch.
Dee Gordon, LAD – Gordon put up remarkably similar stats in 2012 as he did in 2011, which would be fine if it wasn’t in 100 more plate appearances. After stumbling through the year to the tune of a pipsqueakish 56 OPS+, he was demoted on July 4th and was replaced by Hanley Ramirez. He likely will start the year in AAA, but he could make for a good FAAB pickup at some point this season.
Logan Morrison, MIA – things were ducky for LoMo when he was a top-rated prospect, and then again as a hot-hitting rookie and solid sophomore. But he hit a rough patch in year three, got demoted and spoke out publicly against it, and then his knee gave out, so he suddenly was no longer in the good graces of fantasy players. He may start the year on the DL, but he could also be had far cheaper than he was two years ago.
Jason Castro, HOU – was once a top catching prospect but knee injuries derailed his career, forcing him to miss much of the last three seasons. But he returned in July last year and started to hit, posting a .257/6/29 line in 257 ABs. A flyer at best in deep or AL-only leagues.
Lorenzo Cain, KC – showed he could be a solid power/speed provider in the 222 ABs he got last year, which was curtailed by injuries. If he gets 550 ABs, he could be close to a 20-20 type.
Domonic Brown, PHI – posted amazingly similar stats at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012, which has to be disheartening for the Phils and his supporters, since those stats just weren’t very good. In 2011 I went to a SWB Yankee game when they were playing D. Brown and his Lehigh Valley squad, and the place sold out and the air was electric. Yes, Domonic had the power to turn air into electricity. Now, no one knows who he is any longer. And if they do know, they probably don't care. He may be in a platoon situation, and if he fails, there’s also Darin Ruf lying in wait. A very risky play for 2013.
Ian Stewart, CHC – the bloom’s been off this rose for awhile, and at this point, Stewart is just trying to prove he still belongs in the majors. He’s been a disaster the last two years, hitting a combined .183 with a miniscule 50 OPS+, so this is likely to be his last shot before he’s taking the red-eye to Japan. He probably won’t be drafted except in the deepest of leagues, so he may make for a decent waiver wire play at best.
Peter Bourjos, LAA – went from a solid contributor in 2011 to being glued to the bench with no value as Kendry Morales and wunderkind Mike Trout took all the available spots. But with Torii Hunter gone and Vernon Wells taking Bourjos’ spot on the pine, he has reclaimed his CF job. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be that double-digit HR/SB guy once again.
Gorkys Hernandez, MIA – the former top prospect never progressed as expected and was shipped to Miami for Gaby Sanchez. Since he’s still just 25, there’s still time and in Miami there’s the opportunity. Could be a cheap source of power and speed, but watch out for the killer BA.
Brett Jackson, CHC – failed miserably in a 120 AB cup o’coffee (.175 BA, 0 SB with 3 CS, 59 whiffs) and Theo says he’s starting the year again at AAA. He strikes out by the boatload – a whopping 39% at AAA in 2012 – and that may prove to be his ultimate undoing, but if his new swing that he’s showing off helps, he could be a solid fantasy contributor. Maybe not this year for fantasy players, though.
Randall Delgado, ARZ – traded to the D’Backs in the Upton deal, there may not be room for Delgado in their rotation just yet, and he was pretty unimpressive with Atlanta last year (4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in 93 IP). Spring training will likely decide his value for 2k13, so watch closely if he gets the #5 spot.
MOVIN’ OUT (ELI WHITESIDE’S SONG)
Chris Carter, HOU – acquired by the Astros in the Lowrie deal, Carter finally proved he belonged in the majors with a dazzling 16 HRs in just 218 ABs last year. He hit lefties and righties equally well, so given his new surroundings (i.e. a talentless baseball club), there’s a great chance he gets a ton of ABs.
Jed Lowrie, OAK – Lowrie’s power spiked last season as he clubbed 16 HRs in 340 ABs, which was nearly as many as he had in his other 800 career ABs. He also improved his K/BB ratio impressively, from 2.61 to 1.51. He may not have a set position in Oakland, but he’ll get them somewhere as a super-sub type.
Chris Young, OAK – after an up and down career in Arizona he moves his tack to Oakland. He still has trouble with RHPs, so he may become a weak-side platooner, which would reduce his value even more than it already is.
Tyler Greene, HOU – takes over at SS for the departed Lowrie in HOU, Greene was a double digit HR/SB guy last year, but still saddles fantasy owners with a putrid BA. End gamer only.
John Jaso, OAK – acquired in the 3-team Mike Morse deal, Jaso is an OBP beast who amazingly draws more BBs than Ks. He also chipped in 10 HRs and 50 RBIs in just 294 ABs in ’12, and likely pushes Derek Norris aside in Oakland as the everyday backstop. Could be hugely undervalued on draft day.
Jonny Gomes, BOS – the journeyman OFer ends up in Beantown with a great opportunity to get full-time at bats (which he did only once in his career, in 2010 with Cincy). Could be a solid if unspectacular late round pick with a .250-70-20-80 line.
Emilio Bonifacio, TOR – now with his 4th major league team since 2007, Bonifacio was burning up the basepaths with 30 SBs in only 244 ABs last year when he hurt his thumb, and now moves into Toronto’s loaded lineup. If healthy, could be a run scoring and stolen base machine.
THE HURT LOCKER
Jorge de la Rosa, COL – missed all but 3 games last season, but this was a guy who had 16 wins and struck out 193 in 2009. Keep an eye out.
Carl Crawford, LAD – what to make of CC? It’s unlikely he’s the same guy who used to hit .300 with 15 HRs and 55 SBs, but is he the guy who hit .255 with 18 SBs in 2011 for Boston? He may be a big steal or huge bust on draft day, that’s how much his value is up in the air. Don’t overpay!
Brett Gardner, NYY – an elbow injury sunk his 2012 campaign, but remember that he did lead the league in SBs in 2011.
Andy Pettitte, NYY – after his brief retirement, Pettitte can back and pitched better than ever, with a remarkable 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 75 IP. He even was near his career high K%! He seems to be undervalued in drafts, so he’s a great end of your rotation pick.
Mariano Rivera, NYY - missed most of the season with a blown out knee, the first major injury of his Hall of Fame career. At 43, can he return to his earlier greatness? Well, since he is a robot, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Victor Martinez, DET – catcher eligibility or no, VMart returns after missing all of 2012. He’ll lose some value in your league if he’s a DH-only, but regardless, he should get back to his prior productive ways.
Brett Anderson, OAK – missed the majority of last year and half the year before, but when he came back, he was the same pitcher he used to be. If he’s healthy is spring training, I’d buy.
Ryan Madson, LAA – uh oh, the dreaded “discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow.” That’s never a good sign. I’ll let my leaguemates draft him and if they get a value, good for them.
Jose Bautista, TOR – despite having only 332 ABs, the power is still there (27 HRs), so he was on pace for yet another 40+ HR season. His BA plunged from .300 to .241, but it looks like a .215 BABIP was the culprit here. As long as his wrist is healthy, he’s a strong buy.
David Ortiz, BOS – Big Papi was on his way to having a monster year when he went down with an Achilles injury (.318/23/60 in just 324 ABs). It’s starting to look more and more like 2009 was an aberration, and should be business as usual for the big man. Age has to catch up with him one day (unless he’s a robot like Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter), but that day isn’t likely to be in 2013.
Jonathan Lucroy, MLW – he missed much of June and July with a bizarre broken hand injury (“a suitcase fell on it”), but he had a great year and was consistent throughout -- .320/12/58 in 316 ABs. A .338 BABIP is likely to come down a bit, so don’t expect such a lofty average, but he should produce at a fraction of the cost of some bigger name catchers.
Luke Scott, TB – wasn’t having a great year when it ended by an injury, but if he gets 500 PAs he should be able to swat 25 HRs. So take that for what it’s worth.
Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS – Ellsbury followed up his amazing 2011 campaign with a miserable, injury-plagued 2012, where he showed none of the power and only some of the speed he’s displayed in his career. It’s hard to value Ellsbury correctly because, while talented, his stats have been all over the map. He hit 32 of his career 56 HRs in a single season; he stole 70 bases one year and in his next full season he stole just 39; and he’s missed huge portions of two of the last three seasons. Since freak injuries caused him to miss the time I wouldn’t label him as “injury prone,” but it’s still hard to ignore the time lost. But keep in mind: when healthy, he’s routinely been an MVP candidate.
Jason Werth, WAS – like Ellsbury, Werth is another enigmatic player. He has been so up and down over the last five seasons, it’s hard to know exactly who it is you’re drafting. Is he the .300 hitter he was last year in 300 ABs? Is he the guy who blasted 36 HRs and stole 20 bases in 2009? Or is he the .232 hitter who had only 58 RBIs in 2011? Let’s go middle of the road and call him a .270/20/70/15 guy and try not to be disappointed.
Chase Utley, PHI – Utley just declared himself “healthier than he’s been in years,” which is usually the kiss of death. He hasn’t played more than 115 games since 2009, his ratios have plunged, and at age 34, it’s hard to say if he ever will get back to anything resembling the stud 2B he was in the middle of the decade. He’s a gamble for sure.
Stephen Drew, BOS – after four relatively healthy and solid years, the last two seasons have been unmitigated disasters for Drew. And he’s now as injury prone as his bro, JD. Perhaps Boston will be his bounce back spot, but don’t overpay!
Carlos Quentin, SD – he’s never played more than 131 games in any season, so if you get anything more than that, consider yourself a lucky man. And in all but one season of his seven year career, he’s hit lower than .261, so he’s also one-dimensional. Definitely don’t overpay and don’t expect more than 450 ABs.
Evan Longoria, TB – a hammy injury forced Longo to miss May, June & July, but he was a force when he actually was on the field. As long as he’s healthy, there’s little to be concerned about here.
Ryan Howard, PHI – He missed 90 games with that Achilles tear he got in the 2011 NLCS, and when he returned was a shell of his former self (.219 BA, 34% K Ratio). Probably isn’t a candidate to hit 45+ HRs again, but fantasy owners should be able to expect .260/30/100 if he’s healthy.
Travis Hafner, NYY – joins the Bronx chapter of the AARP after a 10-year stretch in Cleveland, but the 36-year old hasn’t played more than 118 games since the ’07 season. A decent bench bat when healthy, but more than likely will be clogging up one of your team’s DL spots sooner rather than later.
Jason Bay, SEA – the NY Mets mercifully let him go after handing out one of the more disastrous contracts in recent memory (and the Mets have handed out many disastrous contracts). It’s hard to believe Bay signed with the Mets after a season in which he hit 36 HRs, drove in 119, and had 13 SBs. Maybe Bay punk’d the Mets by having his identical twin play instead while he was off in the Bahamas. Since he won’t cost much in the draft, take a late round flyer on him and hope he only had Eddie Whitson-disease.
Troy Tulowitzki, COL – groin surgery ruined his and his fantasy owners seasons last year, but when healthy, he’s the best hitting SS in the game. He’s still a surefire 1st round pick even if the “injury prone” label is slowly starting to apply here……
Lance Berkman, TEX – Fat Elvis couldn’t get out of his own way last season, as he was limited to 81 ABs just one year removed from an almost miraculous comeback campaign. At age 37, was 2011 a dead cat bounce? Or can we write off last year and hope 2010 was the aberration? I’d hope for a copy of 2009 (.274/25/80) and anything else is gravy. And Fat Elvis loves gravy.
Nolan Reimold, BAL –epitomizes the term “injury prone.” He was finally starting to look like the top prospect he once was when yet another injury hit (neck/back spasms, then finally surgery) and limited his season to just 16 games. It’s hard to predict his playing time in 2013, so bid cautiously and hope for anything.
Brandon Beachy, ATL/Corey Luebke, SD – were having Cy Young worthy campaigns when Tommy John came calling in June (“Hi Brandon? Corey? This is Tommy.”) The hope is that they’re both back by the All Star Break, but it’s hard to say if either will have any real value in 2013.
John Danks, CWS – the last two seasons have been miserable for Danks, and his 2012 was cut short after only nine awful starts. But from 2008-2011 he was Mr. Consistency, so if healthy, a 13 win, 3.75 ERA and 150 K season is definitely doable.
Jeff Niemann, TB – Niemann is battling for the Rays’ #5 rotation slot but may end up as a long reliever. In either case, Niemann is nothing more than a serviceable bench pitching option at best.
THE STUD ROOKIES
Travis D’Arnaud, NYM – it’s just a matter of time before D’Arnaud is the Mets everyday catcher, and with that, could instantly become one of the best hitting catchers in the league. But will that day come to make re-drafters in 2013 happy?
Adam Eaton, ARZ – Not that Adam Eaton. This guy is the one who bruised minor league pitching to the tune of a .381 BA(!) and .456 OBP in 2012, and is the likely everyday CFer and leadoff hitters for the D’Backs. While he won’t be nearly that good, he still had a .382 OBP in his 103 PA cup of coffee, so he will get on base and score runs. Could be a huge draft day bargain.
Tyler Skaggs, ARZ – has dominated in the minors (career 2.98 ERA, 10.0 K/9), Skaggs may have the inside pitch on the #5 spot in the rotation. Daniel Hudson is hurt, but Randall Delgado looms. A solid gamble.
Will Myers, TB – the prize of the 2013 off-season hot stove league, Myers takes his wares (.314/37/109 at AA and AAA in ’12) to Tampa. But we all know we won’t see him until June at the earliest, so don’t get anxious!
Trevor Bauer, CLE – will likely find his way into CLE’s rotation, the #14 rated prospect by Baseball America mowed down hitters at AA and AAA last year. He walks a bunch (4.2 per 9 career average), so be careful!
Jurickson Profar, TEX – the #1 rated prospect by both Baseball America and MLB.com, Profar is a power/speed SS who may still find playing time in Texas crowded infield, but likely will spend half the season at AAA.
Leonys Martin, TEX – the Cuban refugee crushed minor league pitching in both 2011 and 2012, but his history shows he takes a year to adjust to the next level. He was overmatched at the plate in the majors in 2012, so is 2013 his year? Hmmmm?
Zach Wheeler, NYM – the Mets’ prized pitching specimen was rated the #11 prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Has only 33 IP at AAA and he still walks too many (4.2/9), so we likely won’t see him in the bigs until the summer.
Shelby Miller, STL – rated the #6 prospect by Baseball America, Miller did not have a great 2012 at AAA Memphis – 4.74 ERA, 1.37 WHIP – but he did strike out almost 11 batters per 9 innings. 2013 could be a growth year for him in the majors – and he just reported shoulder tightness -- so he may do your team more harm than good, but definitely worth a gamble.
Dylan Bundy, BAL – the #2 overall prospect by Baseball America, the 20-year old dominated in his first professional season, going from A ball to the majors. In the Sally League, he held batters to just 5 hits and 2 walks (with 40 Ks) in 30 innings! But the AL East is not the Sally League. Given the state of the O’s rotation, he has a damned good chance of taking a rotation spot sooner rather than later. I think he’ll be up for good in May.
Bruce Rondon, DET – can a guy who has not pitched a single MLB inning start from jump as the closer of a World Series-caliber team? He throws peas at 100 mph, but even while dominating at three levels of the minors last year, he still has an alarming 5.1 career BB% rate. It could be asking too much too soon out of this 22-year old.
Mike Olt, TEX – clubbed minor league pitching (28 HRs in 354 ABs in 2012) but did little in his MLB recall. Has defensive issues, but the Rangers could use his bat especially after losing Wonderboy. He’s a solid late round gamble in redraft leagues.
Jedd Gyorko, SD – has torched minor leaguers so far (.319/.385/.529 career stats) and the thinking is that San Diego will be “forced” to use him at 2B and displace Logan Forsythe. If recalled, he could make an immediate fantasy impact.
Trevor Rosenthal, STL – an invaluable member of the Cards post-season run, he allowed just 2 hits and 2 walks in 8 2/3 IP while whiffing 15. If he gets a shot at a rotation spot, look out.
Chris Archer, TB – another Rays power arm, Archer may win the #5 job out of camp. He still walks way too many (5.1/9 career minor league average), but if he can control that, he can be a valuable fantasy asset in 2013.
Ryu Hyun-Jin, LAD – the pudgy pitcher from South Korea flummoxed batters over his 7-year career with an 8.8 K/9 rate. But he also reported 40 lbs. overweight, was winded in his first major league workout, and said “who cares, I’m a pitcher. “ Welcome back to the majors, David Wells! While that’s a bit scary, he could be a solid starter in Dodger Stadium, so don’t overlook him!
THOSE OTHER ROOKIES
Adeiny Hechavarria, MIA – decent prospect, has typical middle infielder power/speed. He could be OK in small doses, like bad cough syrup.
Hiroyuki Nakajima, OAK – likely to be Oakland’s starting SS, Nakajima had an 11-year All Star career in the Japanese league and showed a good power/speed profile with solid on-base ability. He seems to be drafted as a bottom rung option at SS, but he could be an Alexei Ramirez type if his talent translates.
Kyuji Fujikawa, CHC – a dominant closer for Hanshin in the Japanese league, Fujikawa could press Carlos Marmol for the job right out the gate. Fujikawa has a career 4.42 K/BB ratio, so Marmol better watch his back. And his walks.
Avisail Garcia, DET – the 21-year old played well in his September recall and hit well in the ALCS, and it’s not like RF is Detroit’s strong spot (Boesch, Dirks, Berry, et al). Has a good power/speed profile and could easily become the everyday option there soon enough.
Didi Gregorious, ARZ – great glove, no hit. If your league uses Range Factor, he could be valuable, but otherwise, has little power and poor baserunning ability (44 SBs, 30 CS in his minor league career). Great name, though. Whenever I hear it, I think of that hot Latina dancer from "Grease" who almost won the dance-off. So I'm officially saddling Gregorious with the nickname "Cha Cha."
JJ Hoover, CIN – the Reds rotation is pretty full, but Hoover has mowed down minor leaguers and will find himself as a rotation contender or in the pen in 2013. If Broxton fails, Hoover may even be a saves candidate.
Wily Peralta, MLW –the #69-rated prospect by Baseball America, he did well in a 29 inning interview in 2012 and may win one of the open Brewer rotation slots out of camp.
Casey Kelly, SD- the former top prospect got his first taste of the pros and got lit up, posting a miserable 6.21 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 29 innings. He tended to give up hits in the minors, so 2k13 could be more of a learning experience for him, so make sure he learns while he’s not in your lineup.
SKILLS, NOT ROLES
Vinnie Pestano, CLE – one of the best middle men in baseball, the closer job is clearly his if and when Chris Perez moves on. In a perfect world, he’s the closer and Perez the setup man.
Kelvin Herrera, KC – had better numbers than Greg Holland, but did not get the closer job after Broxton was dealt.
David Hernandez, ARZ – has gotten progressively better every single season, and JJ Putz is not exactly the picture of health.
Jake McGee, TB – had an awesome season (55 IP, 1.95 ERA, 0.795 WHIP, 73 Ks) and if Fernando Rodney were to ever falter, McGee could take over pretty cleanly.
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