Top 101 prospect list at BP is out

[Moonlight J]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19694

[Hornsby]

Too heavy on pitching, for my tastes...5 of the top 10 guys and 9 of the top 100. I prefer the predictability of hitters (sketchy as that can be), to the crapshoot that young arms tend to be.

[cavebird]

Too heavy on pitching, for my tastes...5 of the top 10 guys and 9 of the top 100. I prefer the predictability of hitters (sketchy as that can be), to the crapshoot that young arms tend to be.

In defense of the list, of the 9 pitchers in the top 20 (there were plenty more than 9 in the top 100), 3 have pitched in the majors, two more have made it to AAA, and two more have made it to AA. Are pitchers with success at the highest levels any more risky than hitters like Byron Buxton who has the full toolbox but hasn't played above rookie ball?

[Hornsby]

In defense of the list, of the 9 pitchers in the top 20 (there were plenty more than 9 in the top 100), 3 have pitched in the majors, two more have made it to AAA, and two more have made it to AA. Are pitchers with success at the highest levels any more risky than hitters like Byron Buxton who has the full toolbox but hasn't played above rookie ball?

I think so...look in your own backyard at Julio Teheran. Consensus top 10 guy 2 seasons ago who fell on his face last year. Now, maybe that's going to be good for him in the long run, but with pitchers you never know, IMO. Hitters are more projectable, IMO...they may not fully develop one of the skills they're projected to have, but generally, the top 50 guys end up having good careers. Now, that's certainly not always the case, the road is littered with the Jeremy Hermidas of the world, but more often than not, the scouts are correct regarding hitters. Again, my thoroughly unreserched opinion.

[cavebird]

I think so...look in your own backyard at Julio Teheran. Consensus top 10 guy 2 seasons ago who fell on his face last year. Now, maybe that's going to be good for him in the long run, but with pitchers you never know, IMO. Hitters are more projectable, IMO...they may not fully develop one of the skills they're projected to have, but generally, the top 50 guys end up having good careers. Now, that's certainly not always the case, the road is littered with the Jeremy Hermidas of the world, but more often than not, the scouts are correct regarding hitters. Again, my thoroughly unreserched opinion.

That's the thing, I think. Both types have crapouts littered everywhere. I think it is relatively clear (like yours, this is my thoroughly unresearched opinion) that the hitters who have done well in the high minors are the safest; and Profar and Taveras top everyone's lists. I just think there aren't as many of those guys this year for whatever reason. As for Teheran, the Braves messed with his delivery last year because of concerns that his delivery was going to cause an injury eventually, and that completely screwed him up. Late last season and in winter ball, the Braves let him go back to his way, and he returned to being great. So, and you heard it here first, expect Teheran to look really good at the start of this season and then make the dreaded trip to Birmingham. Hopefully, he'll last long enough for Beachy to get back.

[Big Tymer]

Hornsby and I have had several conversations on this and I too (from a fantasy perspective) would much rather invest in the hitter than the pitcher if for no other reason than projected floor. A pitcher can get injured and lose his value or just not develop a 3rd pitch, not develop command, etc. For a hitter, loss of projection due to injury is not really something to worry about and thus it then just comes to limited the downside risk of investing in that 5-tool player (how's Starling working out for you Hornsby) who you hope can develop a hit tool. I feel like with the time I invest in prospect research I can hit more often than not on a hitter (at least 3 out of 5) but my record with pitchers is awful.

Back to the list, I was always a huge fan of KG's list and think Jason did a great job this year balancing projection with production. I play with too many guys on this site to say who I was most excited to see where but overall I like his list a lot.

[Hornsby]

Hornsby and I have had several conversations on this and I too (from a fantasy perspective) would much rather invest in the hitter than the pitcher if for no other reason than projected floor. A pitcher can get injured and lose his value or just not develop a 3rd pitch, not develop command, etc. For a hitter, loss of projection due to injury is not really something to worry about and thus it then just comes to limited the downside risk of investing in that 5-tool player (how's Starling working out for you Hornsby) who you hope can develop a hit tool. I feel like with the time I invest in prospect research I can hit more often than not on a hitter (at least 3 out of 5) but my record with pitchers is awful.

Back to the list, I was always a huge fan of KG's list and think Jason did a great job this year balancing projection with production. I play with too many guys on this site to say who I was most excited to see where but overall I like his list a lot.

Interesting that you bring up my boy Bubba...I've actually seen some people complaining that he's simply not that good a prospect because he's not banging on the big league door. People are starting to expect everyone to be Brian Harper...and that's just plain ridiculous. Starling was projected to be a 5 tool guy and so far, he's right on course...he hit .275/.371/.485 with 10 steals and was only caught once. I'll see him in the bigs in 2015 and he won't look back. But so far, he's progressing exactly how the scouts said that he would.

[KevinTO26]

What suprises me is the drop from 57 to 84 for Jedd Gyorko. That amount of power for a MI is intriguing to say the least. I also wouldn't have dropped Arenado as much. (20 to 57). Sure he did have a disappointing AA season from a production standpoint but showed some life in the final two months ending up with 36 doubles. He makes good contact and his defense has improved. A hot start in AAA and he will be up in the bigs by end of May. Easily makes my top 50 prospects.

[cavebird]

What suprises me is the drop from 57 to 84 for Jedd Gyorko. That amount of power for a MI is intriguing to say the least. I also wouldn't have dropped Arenado as much. (20 to 57). Sure he did have a disappointing AA season from a production standpoint but showed some life in the final two months ending up with 36 doubles. He makes good contact and his defense has improved. A hot start in AAA and he will be up in the bigs by end of May. Easily makes my top 50 prospects.

I am not sure we can consider these moves as "drops" since a different person is doing the list this year compared to last year. I know that he has said he likes high ceiling, high risk guys more than higher level safer bets, so that probably explains some of the movement of Arenado and Gyorko.

[KevinTO26]

I am not sure we can consider these moves as "drops" since a different person is doing the list this year compared to last year. I know that he has said he likes high ceiling, high risk guys more than higher level safer bets, so that probably explains some of the movement of Arenado and Gyorko.

Good point that I never took into consideration.

[onejayhawk]

I think so...look in your own backyard at Julio Teheran. Consensus top 10 guy 2 seasons ago who fell on his face last year. Now, maybe that's going to be good for him in the long run, but with pitchers you never know, IMO. Hitters are more projectable, IMO...they may not fully develop one of the skills they're projected to have, but generally, the top 50 guys end up having good careers. Now, that's certainly not always the case, the road is littered with the Jeremy Hermidas of the world, but more often than not, the scouts are correct regarding hitters. Again, my thoroughly unreserched opinion.

You are talking of a guy I am targeting.

J

[The Dane]

Also, I think from a fantasy perspective, it isn't even CLOSE between prospecting pitchers and hitters. Another reason to prefer the hitter is that when pitchers bomb, we have options. Some leagues have serviceable, but unsexy starters available, and ALL leagues have some middle relievers that can hold down a pitching spot until something better comes along. You generally don't have that when hitters bomb. Maybe for real baseball, it makes sense to have so many pitchers rated highly, but for fantasy, why bother with them?

My biggest minor league system is in the RJEL (15 deep) and I plan on keeping two pitchers, Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran, and maybe add one more this year.