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2k13: Philadelphia Phillies

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  • 2k13: Philadelphia Phillies

    Yes, they're an old, veteran team. But there are still plenty of questions that need to be answered for fantasy purposes.

    CATCHER

    As you know, Carlos Ruiz has been suspended for the first 25 games. Nonetheless, he could be a sneaky play, especially in leagues that start two catchers or use OBP. While he won't repeat last year's career year, he has shown strong OBP skills for several years. Erik Kratz will fill in in the meantime. He became a fan favorite last year thanks to some clutch HRs, but he won't have any fantasy value outside two-catcher NL-only leagues. Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle are battling it out for catcher of the future, which is worth keeping an eye on as Ruiz is well north of 30.


    INFIELD

    The starters are set, but health and effectiveness questions abound. Ryan Howard is fully recovered from his Achilles injury but is no longer the elite slugger he was in the mid-'00s. Don't sleep on him too much, however, because he will still put up good HR and RBI numbers. But he gets worse at hitting lefties each year and won't help at all in AVG. Who knows what you'll get from Chase Utley, whose knees are shot. The good news is he changed his offseason regimen in order to allow his knees to be better prepared for the start of the season, and it seems to be working so far. The bad news is that his body is so worn down that you can't bid expecting him to play more than 120 games. Anything on top of that is gravy. Jimmy Rollins has been frustrating to own in recent years, as he has been prone to prolonged slumps. But he put up very good numbers after a slow start last year, and still carries 20-20 appeal at a thin position. Maybe he put his bad habits behind him for good. Michael Young was horrendous for the Rangers last year, but the Phils think he still has something left in the tank. He may be worth a "he can't possibly be worse than last year" bid when 3B options get thin. Given the age of the infield starters, the plan is to rest them more frequently than previous years. Kevin Frandsen, who filled in effectively for Utley and Placido Polanco last year, will be the biggest beneficiary of this. The infield prospect closest to making an impact is Cody Asche, who could take over for Young at third next year. The infield prospect with the highest upside is the speedy Roman Quinn. He might be ready when Rollins' deal is up after 2014, but it's too early to tell.

    OUTFIELD

    Your guess is as good as mine as to how this will play out. The only certainty is that Ben Revere, acquired from the Twins for Vance Worley and Trevor May, will start in CF. He is a contact hitter with very good speed but absolutely no power. In other words, he's Juan Pierre with better defense. LF and RF will be manned by some combination of Domonic Brown, John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, Darin Ruf, and Delmon Young. We could even see a double platoon, like the 1993 NL Champion. Mayberry and Nix could also see starts at 1B when Howard gets rested. (Mayberry, who kills lefties but struggles with righties, would be an ideal platoon partner for Howard, but that will never happen.) Brown, a former top prospect, and Ruf, who came out of nowhere last year to put up huge power numbers at AA and excel in a September callup, are the most worthy of speculative bids, but it's not worth investing much in any of them at this point. Young had microfracture surgery on his foot in the offseason and will start the year on the DL. The best-case scenario is that two guys excel before Young returns and render him superfluous. If the team is in contention in midsummer, OF is likely to be where they look to fortify via trade.

    ROTATION

    Other than a slight blip in 2009, Cole Hamels has put up consistently elite numbers since 2008, and has the most value of the team's three aces going into 2013. Among NL aces, only Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg should definitely be taken before him. Much was made of Cliff Lee's struggles last year, but his final numbers were better than what you might have expected. He suffered from incredibly poor run support, but he also had a few outings where he was wild in the strike zone and got hit hard. The law of averages says the former won't be as big an issue this year. The latter happens a few times every year, but it's impossible to predict when. If you can weather them, he'll put up numbers you'll be very happy with. Roy Halladay was injured and ineffective for most of 2012. He appears to be fully healed and primed for a bounceback. But given his age and what happened last year, don't bid expecting a return to 2009-2011 form. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan are penciled in for the fourth and fifth spots. Kendrick's numbers have improved the past two years. In 2011, a lot of that was due to luck, but the gains in 2012 are supported by the numbers, as he's expanded his repertoire and increased his K rate. You could do worse at the back of your fantasy rotation. Lannan's last few years have been unremarkable, and now he moves to a less favorable home park. He should be left on the waiver wire except in very tight NL-only leagues. Should anyone falter, Tyler Cloyd and Jonathan Pettibone could get looks. The team's best pitching prospect is Jesse Biddle, but he's a few years away and could be dealt if the team is in contention and needs an impact player.

    BULLPEN

    Jonathan Papelbon is one of the league's elite closers and will rack up saves barring injury. The rest of the bullpen struggled last year, but given the volatility that goes with the position, they should be better this year. Mike Adams was brought in for the 8th inning and should get whatever save chances Papelbon is unavailable for. If your league uses K/9, pay attention to Antonio Bastardo, Jeremy Horst, and Jake Diekman, all of whom are very impressive in that category. Other young arms who could see time include Phillipe Aumont, Justin de Fratus, and Michael Schwimer.

    Overall, the team is likely to finish third in the NL East and contend for the second wild card slot. Whether they do so will depend on whether Howard, Utley, and Halladay bounce back.
    Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
    We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

  • #2
    Howard Eskin reported on Twitter yesterday that Jimmy Rollins is leading off again. Charlie Manuel cannot get past his devotion to Rollins.
    Bob- I'm not exactly sure it would ROCK as you say it Byron.. it may be cool, by typical text book descriptions. Your opinion of this is shallow and poorly constructed, but allow me to re-craft your initial thought into something tangable.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Piney Boy View Post
      Howard Eskin reported on Twitter yesterday that Jimmy Rollins is leading off again. Charlie Manuel cannot get past his devotion to Rollins.
      The seeming alternatives are Revere or perhaps Young and Rollins is arguably a better or as good a lead off man as they are. Utley makes sense but Rollins might feel comfortable as a leadoff man and Utley might not.

      Comment


      • #4
        Old, veteran managers love their old veterans. Hey Erik, whats yours and Philly Fan's general feelings toward Charlie? Has he worn out his welcome? Is he on thin ice? Are they grooming someone in the organization?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by KnuckleBalls View Post
          Old, veteran managers love their old veterans. Hey Erik, whats yours and Philly Fan's general feelings toward Charlie? Has he worn out his welcome? Is he on thin ice? Are they grooming someone in the organization?
          Charilie Manuel is in the last year of his contract and is not actively seeking an extension. Talk is either he will retire after this season. If he does then Ryne Sandberg will take over. It was assumed if Charlie left in any manner that Ryne will be the heir apparent. He is not on thin ice from what I can tell.

          Charlie is still mostly loved in this area those his decisions will always be questioned. This is Philly and we always think we can do better than the man getting paid to make the decisions.
          Bob- I'm not exactly sure it would ROCK as you say it Byron.. it may be cool, by typical text book descriptions. Your opinion of this is shallow and poorly constructed, but allow me to re-craft your initial thought into something tangable.

          Comment


          • #6
            That's good to hear Piney. As a Tribe fan, I've always loved the guy and felt he kind of got a bad rap for his country-bumpkinisms. Crazy like a Fox. With the Phillies needing to get younger it's probably a good time for him to walk away. They've been kinda my NL team since he went there and I'll be rooting for some magic in Philly for his farewell.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by KnuckleBalls View Post
              Old, veteran managers love their old veterans. Hey Erik, whats yours and Philly Fan's general feelings toward Charlie? Has he worn out his welcome? Is he on thin ice? Are they grooming someone in the organization?
              There is still good will from 2008 and the near-misses after that. Unlike Andy Reid, he's affable with fans and the media, so there is more patience when he makes bad decisions and sticks with them for too long. Most of the wrath about how the team is currently constituted is directed at Ruben Amaro. The perception amongst "smarter" fans is that Amaro is way behind the curve on player analysis and is particularly bad at identifying players who can make positive contributions but aren't superstars. (Pat Gillick's successes in that area were what put the 2008 team over the top.) Manuel doesn't bunt excessively or make too many in-game decisions that infuriate the sabermetric types. He delegates all pitching decisions to Rich Dubee, so the bullpen-usage issues from last year really fall on Dubee. There is, however, a bit of a sense that some of the hitters have tuned Manuel out, given the offensive struggles of the last two years and the revolving door of hitting coaches.

              Many folks believe that Ryne Sandberg is being groomed as Manuel's successor, and was brought up to the big-club staff this year because of that. (He managed AAA Lehigh Valley last year.)
              Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
              We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

              Comment


              • #8
                Thanks guys. Sad that he might not be relating to the hitters anymore. He is pretty much regarded as the man behind the power of those great hitting Indians teams of the 90's.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Super work here, Erik.

                  It was a 99% certainty that Rollins would continue to lead off, so that's not news around here. Still uncertain though is how the rest of the lineup will shake out. Will Utley and Howard be split up? Is M Young the #2 hitter?

                  I think that Manuel's biggest weakness as a manager is that he sticks with his veterans to a fault. Halladay pitching a complete game on opening day in April to Utley playing 16 straight games in September. They'd be a better team if they worked in days off for their aging infield and if he didn't keep his big three starters in for the extra inning.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Erik View Post
                    Jonathan Papelbon is one of the league's elite closers and will rack up saves barring injury. The rest of the bullpen struggled last year, but given the volatility that goes with the position, they should be better this year. Mike Adams was brought in for the 8th inning and should get whatever save chances Papelbon is unavailable for. If your league uses K/9, pay attention to Antonio Bastardo, Jeremy Horst, and Jake Diekman, all of whom are very impressive in that category. Other young arms who could see time include Phillipe Aumont, Justin de Fratus, and Michael Schwimer.
                    Schwimer has been traded to the Jays for minor-league 1B Art Charles.
                    Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                    We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by willthethrill View Post
                      They'd be a better team if they worked in days off for their aging infield
                      I should have mentioned Freddy Galvis in this regard, as he will get PT because of his defense, but he really shouldn't be on a fantasy roster since he's yet to prove he can hit major-league pitching without the help of PEDs.
                      Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                      We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm not sure he proved he could hit ML pitching even with them.
                        I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by heyelander View Post
                          I'm not sure he proved he could hit ML pitching even with them.
                          His performance was "poor" as opposed to "abject disaster," so he at least beat expectations.
                          Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                          We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            In a TGP exclusive, Chase Utley gives his own preview into what to expect from him in 2013



                            2013 Bill James Projections: .274/.372/.463 19 HR 77 RBI 13 SB 122 games

                            2013 ZIPS Projections: .258/.362/.431 14 HR 57 RBI 12 steals 102 games 3.5 fWAR

                            Dear Nerds,

                            Chase Utley here. So I'm looking at these number thingies your nerd lord sent me and I got one thing to say. IF I ONLY PLAY 113 games then just freaking shoot me. Seriously. PUT. ME. OUT. TO. PASTURE!

                            Hey Bill James? You my freaking doctor now? Zippy, you my trainer? Extrapolate that shit out to 162 bitches. I ain't good at math but I'm good at hitting baseballs one of you nerds do the math but its probably something like 80 home runs and a butt-load of RBIs.
                            ...

                            What? Oh, you want me to compare crap to like before and predict stuff and... NO. Here's the skinny. Am I as good as I was five years ago? I think so, who the hell knows. Have I lost a step? Probably. That's life. But ask yourself this: Who would you rather have out there other than me night after night, day after day?

                            Yeah. That's what I thought.

                            I missed you too Nerds.

                            Now go get your dog spayed. Seriously. And take him for a walk and throw her a Frisbee and stay away from that crap food they sell at the A&P. Go to a pet store. Pay for the good stuff. I mean seriously, open up a can of Chef Boyardee and eat it every day for a month and then ask yourself how you feel. That's how your dog feels when you give him that canned crap.
                            I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Awesome. I need a shirt now saying......

                              Chase Utley called me a NERD
                              Bob- I'm not exactly sure it would ROCK as you say it Byron.. it may be cool, by typical text book descriptions. Your opinion of this is shallow and poorly constructed, but allow me to re-craft your initial thought into something tangable.

                              Comment

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