2k14: Hyun-Jin Ryu

[joncarlos]

I have to say, I don't know much about this guy, but there seems to be a good bit of optimism that he'll earn a rotation spot and pitch well. Here's his peer group from Mock One:

13.14 Trevor Cahill; 16.03 Trevor Bauer 13.15 Hyun-Jin Ryu; 14.05 Josh Beckett; 14.06 Shelby Miller; 14.12 Jhoulys Chacin; 14.17 Wade Miley; 14.19 Jason Hammel; 15.01 A.J. Burnett; 15.03 Brandon McCarthy; 15.05 Wandy Rodriguez; 15.06 Tim Hudson; 15.07 A.J. Griffin;

Here's an article about him from the LA Times:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-ryu-20130220,0,128876.story

A.J. Ellis caught Ryu's first bullpen session of the spring and noticed he was unusually calm.

"He wasn't trying to make a big first impression," Ellis said. "He wasn't overthrowing like a lot of guys do in their first side session."

Ryu seems to be approaching his first game similarly. He is scheduled to pitch Sunday against the Chicago White Sox, but he said he wasn't nervous.

"Not at all," he said. "I'm scheduled to pitch one inning. I don't care if I get hit hard. I'm more concerned about my command."

He also doesn't appear to be bothered by questions about his weight, which is listed at 215 pounds by the Dodgers.

"There's two different shapes," he said with a shrug. "One to be fit and one to throw a baseball."

Here's the scouting report on him (http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p3214):

A wide, solid pitcher, Hyun-Jin surprisingly lacks overpowering stuff, but can show masterful command and control of both a low-90's fastball and a plus change, a combination that is usually all one needs to succeed in MLB. If it's not, he also shows a workable curve and slider, though not very often.

It's a lazy comp, but Wei-Yin Chen put up 192ip, 12-11, 4.02 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.26 WHIP for the Orioles last year. Is that a reasonable baseline for Ryu? Maybe not quite as talented as Chen but in an easier environment?

The Dodgers paid $25mil for his rights and then signed him to a 6-year, 36mil deal, so you expect they'll give him a long look for the rotation. Then again, what's money to them? They have Kershaw/Greinke as their 1-2, then Beckett, Ryu, Harang, Capuano and Lilly for the last 2 spots.

[Moonlight J]

I think that's a fair spot for him...I think he gets a sub 3.80 ERA

[Hornsby]

Wow...reported as a Fat Bastard. Take him down a few notches, at least.

According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Hyun-Jin Ryu reported to Dodgers camp weighing 255 pounds.

That's 40 pounds more than the 215 that Ryu was originally listed at. He has already struggled to make it through conditioning workouts early this spring, though the young lefty seems unfazed. He fully believes the only thing that matters is how he pitches, and is ready to demonstrate that to the Dodgers.

[Hornsby]

Yeah, being thin is super key to effective pitching, huh CC Sabathia?

Who cares?

Yeah, because struggling to get through ST conditioning drills bodes well for a player to have the stamina to go deep into a game.

And I'm shocked, SHOCKED I tell you that a coach and a catcher have positive things to say about a pitchers stuff. Be still my heart!

[Hornsby]

Do you even know anything about Honeycutt? You're betraying your ignorance. Do you know anything about Logan White? How about the multitudes of Dodger beat reporters?

When has being big ever, ever affected a pitcher? Are you saying that Sabathia has less stamina than smaller pitchers, because if you are.....


Nah...


He may struggle, but it won't be because of his size. Kinda surprised that I even need to say something like that, but there you go.


This reminds me of the dolts who were saying to bump Miguel Cabrera down "a few notches" because of his weight gain. I argued with them, too, but got similarly foolish responses.

And you're reacting like a starstruck fanboy...honestly, is it in anyone's best interest to come into camp 40 pounds over your last recorded weight? Is it going to help him with stamina, fielding, or even pitching? And do you really expect a coach or his catcher to slag him at this point before they even know his personality? Highly unlikely. And I'm sure that his pitches are nails, and I'm sure that the scouts were duly impressed...but they also saw him pitch at 215, not 255. 40 extra pounds can make a HUGE difference (see what I did there?) in the delivery, the landing point, and even the arm angle.

Now, is it likely to make a difference in the long run? Again, unlikely, but it's certainly something worth noting, and worth watching.

[cavebird]

A few random point:

1. The officially listed weights are always wrong and skewed in a direction that they want it. So he's probably just 20 pounds overweight.

2. eldiablo, you hope that the correct comparison on fat pitchers is Sabathia instead of Irabu. Like most other kinds of players, there are those that succeeded and those that failed.

[cavebird]

Yeah, of course. Most baseball players aren't fat because they get paid to lift weights and whatnot. However, the list of fat, successful pitchers is a really long one.

Overall, it's irrelevant to my evaluation of Ryu as a player. I think the numbers that JC posted in the first thread (Chen's rookie numbers last year) are a pretty good projection. The reported weight blah blah has something very close to absolutely no bearing on that projection, nor is it smart for fantasy purposes to bump him down a few notches. The Dodgers have a proud history of overweight foreign imports doing extremely well. Let's hope that this is a harbinger for Ryu-mania!


Edit: And have you seen the kid? He's not just some tub of goo, Terry Forster style. He's an absolute behemoth of a man. His nickname in Korea is "The Monster" and you can see why. He is built like a brick shithouse.

Hey, I was being nice. I didn't even mention Sidney Ponson. Really, the list of good and crappy fat pitchers is pretty long. That all being said, I would discount him a little bit because the Asian import players tend to be hit and miss and there really seems to be no rhyme or reason to it. Some of the great players in Asia flop here while some are great here, too. Some of the lesser players in Asia do better than some of the better ones. I tend to stay away for fantasy purposes because I don't have the faintest clue what makes some succeed and others fail, so I have no way of having any clue which is which. That being said, if the price is right...

[cavebird]

To follow up, I agree with Sickels: "This is honestly a wild guess, I really don't how to rank him. He pitched great in Korea, but what level of competition is that? Single-A? Double-A? Hard to say. He looks good on video. Scouting reports are ambiguously if vaguely positive. Some sources say he works in the upper-80s, some say he touches 95. Everyone says he has a good changeup and throws strikes, but reports on breaking stuff vary from average to above average. He could be Rookie of the Year, a mediocre number five starter, or an expensive failure. Follow spring training reports very closely."

In other words, who knows?

[KnuckleBalls]

What's with the Little League windup?

[Gregg]

I traded for him last night just before roster deadline. Got a win and 12k's. Today I am a very happy guy!

[whalewang]

The kid's looking even better than advertised so far. I think the real question is no longer "is he effective?" but "can he throw 200 innings?"

Does he have a history of being injury prone? Why the concern of hitting 200 innings?

[Pogues]

I'm about ready to dump Ryu in the league I own him in. He's just not giving up enough total bases for my liking.

[Erik]

Got outbid for him toward the end of my auction because I didn't have enough money left. Guh.

[james33]

192 IP, 154 K, 49 BB, 15 HR - BORRR-ing. But I'm a K/9 snob. But I also love pitchers parks and good W potential. And only one year of stats.

Thoughts on Ryu for 2014 and beyond?

At the draft Jason posted last week, http://www.rtsports.com/fsta, here were the NL starting pitchers drafted near Ryu:

9.5 Julio Teheran
9.6 Homer Bailey

10.2 Ryu
10.9 Johnny Cueto

Does this seem about right?

Perhaps $17 in NL-only league is Ryu's value? "He'll get better as he adjusts to the hitters" vs. "He'll get hit harder as the league knows him now"?

[Don Quixote]

I'd certainly take Ryu before Cueto, because of injuries and home parks. I'd rank him about even with Bailey.

As for this adjustment stuff, I think the media just keeps the clichés in their cliché pack (you thought that was a beer belly? wrong) and hauls out whichever one "explains" a pitcher's given outing or recent series of outings. They're always looking for explanations for random variance, trying to establish The Narrative when a given game may be just a case of "sh** happens" or "beats the f**k out of me why I was so effective".