2k13: Seattle Mariners

[joncarlos]

OK, I'm not a Mariners homer, but I do like them, and they're such a mess that they deserve their own thread.

Catcher

And the problems have already started. Jesus Montero, bad glove and all, is ostensibly penciled in as the starter. The Shoppach-copter is the backup, and Mike Zunino is waiting for his chance in the high minors. Ronny Paulino is also in camp. Montero can really hit, and the fences are moved in, but if he struggles even worse than expected behind the plate, he could be moved to DH. Especially because he isn't the catcher of the future anyway.

1B/DH

Justin Smoak is penciled in as the starter at 1B, which pushes Kendrys Morales to the starting DH spot. The Smoak Monster has the best nickname in baseball but sucked last year. Still, he was a top prospect and the Ms paid a steep price for him, so he'll get his chances. Morales is in the last year of his contract and could be trade bait, but the Ms do need his bat. Mike Carp was just DFA'd.

Infield

Kyle Seager had a nice season last year at 3B, and could be 2B/SS eligible in some leagues. Dustin Ackley did NOT have a good year last year but still has some upside. Brendan Ryan is the starter at SS and can't hit at all. Nick Franklin put on 35 pounds this off-season and played 2B in the AFL, he could start at either MI spot but the Ms seem more committed to Ryan. Brad Miller is probably the shortstop of the future which makes Franklin the 2B of the future, I guess.

Outfield

Michael Morse came over from the Nats and will start in LF. Michael Saunders moves to RF when Franklin Gutierrez is healthy (how often does that happen?) Jason Bay is in camp and Raul Ibanez signed for 2.75mil, so he'll definitely have a spot on the 25-man, even though he doesn't have a place to play on the field. Casper Wells is probably the odd man out unless Bay doesn't make the team. Presumably when Gutierrez gets hurt, Saunders goes to CF, and Ibanez/Morse play the corners.

Rotation

Felix Hernandez is awesome, even if there were some minor concerns about his elbow prior to his mega-extension. Hisashi Iwakuma was great in the rotation last year after sucking in the bullpen. Joe Saunders will eat innings. I worry about both of them with the fences moving in; even a little less wiggle room could hurt them. Erasmo Ramirez has some upside as the #4. Blake Beaven might have the #5 spot until the kids are ready (Danny Hultzen, Tijuan Walker, James Paxton). The Ms also signed Jon Garland who I would kinda like as the #5 if he got the job. Jeremy Bonderman is also in camp hoping for a miracle.

Bullpen

I have no idea if Tom Wilhelmsen will keep the job, but most people seem to think he will. Did you know he is 29 and was bounced out of baseball for smoking weed in his early 20s? He worked as a bartender before coming back to baseball. Charles Furbush is a good LOOGY but the main guy you want other than Wilhelmsen is Carter Capps, who is basically Bruce Rondon with a little more control, a little less velo (by which I mean 99 and not 102) and not nearly as much publicity.

[BigJonEmpire]

I think giving Smoak one more chance at the first base job is the right thing to do. However, I do wonder if they truly will. I can see Morales as the regular 1B with Ibanez as the regular DH with Smoak getting part-time duty at both spots.

Also, although I like Montero at catcher (I own him) if they really think they'll be changing his position I wonder why they don't just do it. It just hurts the pitching staff if they think he's not good enough. I wonder if the M's are just not as down on his defense as most analysts.

[TranaGreg]

re: Smoak, I just wonder if he's having trouble with the Mendoza line in May how long they'll put up with him. I'm surprised they DFA's Carp, I thought they'd make room for him as Smoak insurance, but now I don't know what they'd do.

I'm also keeping an eye on Ackley this spring, it wasn't too long ago that he was touted as the next big thing ... he could be a good buy-low candidate.

[mgwiz22]

While I know that Ackley was a very high draft choice I could never understand why he was anointed as a future star. His stats as a professional seem underwhelming.

[TranaGreg]

While I know that Ackley was a very high draft choice I could never understand why he was anointed as a future star. His stats as a professional seem underwhelming.

yeah, don't get me wrong, I don't think he's all-star material; but he could hit for avg in minors; if can get up to .270 he could be a 15-15 guy, which isn't bad for a buck or two (or as a late-round pick).

[revo]

Carp traded to the Red Sox.

[Ryno84MVP]

I just traded for a $7 Erasmo Ramirez aka "The Eraser" based upon this guy's report...

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showArticle.htm?id=16403

I hope that he knows what he's talking about...

[cavebird]

re: Smoak, I just wonder if he's having trouble with the Mendoza line in May how long they'll put up with him. I'm surprised they DFA's Carp, I thought they'd make room for him as Smoak insurance, but now I don't know what they'd do.

I'm also keeping an eye on Ackley this spring, it wasn't too long ago that he was touted as the next big thing ... he could be a good buy-low candidate.

They have plenty of Smoak insurance outside of Carp. I could see any of Morales, Ibanez, or Montero playing first.

[cool hand]

i'm quite bullish on morse, particularly with these new park dimensions. hoping he continues to (quietly) fly under the proverbial radar....

frankly, i'm somewhat bullish on all of the Ms power sticks. i have them all rated a tick or two ahead of where they seem to be going in the early ratings/drafts/mocks. (except ibanez. just cant see that tank having much left in it)

[TranaGreg]

They have plenty of Smoak insurance outside of Carp. I could see any of Morales, Ibanez, or Montero playing first.

yeah, I keep forgetting they got Ibanez, let alone Morales ... does shorten Smoak's leash somewhat.

[joncarlos]

@StoneLarry: Raul Ibanez misplays first play ball hit to him in deep left for an error.

[Bodhizefa]

Great write-up, JC. I think the M's have made some interesting choices this off-season (and certainly not all of them good), but I will comment simply on what they have now and not what could have been.

Morse and Morales instantly make the team more watchable from an offensive standpoint. It's not hard to take a peak at the M's stats the last few seasons and recognize that they were lacking a certain something -- offense being that something. They were horrific hitters and comically bad entertainment value for half of every game. Morse and Morales should change that a bit, and I do have some hopes on improvement from the youngsters.

I've given up on Smoak, but plenty of people smarter than me think he's still got a shot at making it. It's tough as a fan to watch his warning track power and constant prowess in hitting the ball hard at every possible defender imaginable. Perhaps the fences moving in will help him (he's shown a weakness at putting the ball over the fence in left field both as a right-handed hitter and as a lefty -- he's excellent at going the other way from the left side), but I don't have huge hopes here.

I'm more excited about the potential of Montero as a hitter, and I still think he's got plenty of upside left to tap. I believe he's a longterm DH, though, with occasional starts at catcher to spell Zunino.

Ackley is a weird fantasy case because he never really had a skillset that would lend itself to being a fantasy star (middling power, good speed but not a great base stealer, solid defense up the middle, good eye at the plate), but there have been plenty of moments where he's looked every bit the real life 3-4 WAR player that I think he eventually settles into.

Seager probably doesn't have much upside from what he did last year except maybe in batting average. I think he takes a step back this year overall, though, and would be surprised if he bests his 2012 campaign. But still, he's a worthwhile fantasy player to own who may have excellent positional flexibility depending on league setttings.

Zunino is the real catch for the M's as getting him with the #3 overall pick now seems like a steal. I remember being mildly disappointed at the time, but he quickly upended my sulking. Still, catcher attrition rates being what they are, you can only love a catching prospect so much. It's very difficult for me to get my hopes up too high after seeing so many great catcher prospects fail so early and so often.

Michael "Condor" Saunders will likely always have a batting average deficiency, and so you'll have to build that into your roster if you want him. He's useful, and I think he's talented overall, but his contact rates are too low to warrant expecting any sort of additional breakout for him in the future.

Brad Miller and Nick Franklin are both interesting prospects. Franklin is not athletic enough to stay at short at this point (especially after putting on 35+ lbs. in the off-season). I could see him being an excellent utility player all over the diamond, though, especially if the M's get him some exposure in the outfield. And Miller is the shortstop of the future for the M's now. He's got solid upside and while he's very raw defensively, he'll be a real treat for M's fans offensively where our shortstops have combined for an OPS just south of terrifying over the past few years.

[joncarlos]

How many of the "name" prospects (Tijuan, Paxton, Hultzen) has Brandon Maurer passed this spring? Maurer is tearing it up.

[Bodhizefa]

How many of the "name" prospects (Tijuan, Paxton, Hultzen) has Brandon Maurer passed this spring? Maurer is tearing it up.

I'm pretty sure most M's followers already had him above Paxton coming into this year (Paxton looks like a bullpen arm to me at this point). And some people were so scared by Hultzen's time in Tacoma last year that Maurer was creeping up on him. Of all the arms in the system, I think Maurer and Hultzen are the safest.

[TranaGreg]

...Michael "Condor" Saunders will likely always have a batting average deficiency, and so you'll have to build that into your roster if you want him. He's useful, and I think he's talented overall, but his contact rates are too low to warrant expecting any sort of additional breakout for him in the future.

fwiw during the WBC Saunders talked about how he worked hard with a coach to shorten his swing during the offseason; certainly worked for Team Canada (he was 8-11 with 3 doubles & a key HR for those who weren't paying attention ... obviously a small sample size, but worthy of monitoring)