Tweet
Talk about a guy who is all over the map. The Tigers have a rock-solid top 4 (JV, Max, Fister, Anibal) and then two good candidates for the #5 spot in Porcello and Drew Smyly. So as much as you might like Porcello, there's a chance he won't even have a spot in the rotation.
2012 stats: 176.1ip, 4.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 107 Ks, 10-12 record. Just 5.46 K9, but 2.25 BB9 and a nice 53.2% GB rate. Unfortunately, throwing all those ground balls behind the Tigers' infield resulted in a .344 BABIP. That's high, but unless Jhonny Peralta and Miguel Cabrera suddenly turn into Nettles and Ozzie on the left side of the infield, it might not get a lot better. Porcello did have a 3.91 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP, but obviously those numbers don't know about the guys playing behind him.
Bill James' projections hate Porcello: 178ip, 9-11, 4.50 ERA, 1.42 WHIP.
Then there's this:
2012 stats: 176.1ip, 4.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 107 Ks, 10-12 record. Just 5.46 K9, but 2.25 BB9 and a nice 53.2% GB rate. Unfortunately, throwing all those ground balls behind the Tigers' infield resulted in a .344 BABIP. That's high, but unless Jhonny Peralta and Miguel Cabrera suddenly turn into Nettles and Ozzie on the left side of the infield, it might not get a lot better. Porcello did have a 3.91 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP, but obviously those numbers don't know about the guys playing behind him.
Bill James' projections hate Porcello: 178ip, 9-11, 4.50 ERA, 1.42 WHIP.
Then there's this:
Governator (Philly): Where's your faith in Porcello come from? Guessing slow/steady improvement and age.
Jason Parks: I think the stuff is slowly getting better, and he shows good pitchability. When it all clicks, I think he really steps forward. Could be this season.
flyingdutchman (Oakland, CA): Sure, his K rate is rising slightly, but it was still only 5.5/9 in 2012, and he posted a 1.53 WHIP, same number of walks, etc. So what does it mean to say that Porcello shows "good pitchability"?
Jason Parks: Pitchability means he knows how to pitch; sequence/feel, changing speeds, changing sight lines, etc. His raw stuff is getting better. He's ticking up across the board. The K's will come. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes another step forward in '13.
flyingdutchman (Oakland, CA): Sorry to bug you, but hey, you've been here all day so it's your fault! Still skeptical on this nebulous "pitchability". If he is getting better at sequencing, getting a better feel, changing speeds, and changing sight lines, why isn't it showing up in his numbers? As for the raw stuff (which it seems the Tigers initially suppressed, frankly), has this improvement been documented in any way, avg MPH, break, etc?
Jason Parks: Because he just hasn't put it all together yet. I think a pitcher has to learn how to miss bats. They can have the pitchablity and they can have the stuff, but they have to learn how to up the intensity and go for the throat. Strikeout pitchers are blood-thirsty sharks. Porcello can get passive and pitch to weak contact, which is fine. But I think he has a chance to go for the throat more in '13. If he can find that missing ingredient, he has the physical ability to make it happen.
Jason Parks: I think the stuff is slowly getting better, and he shows good pitchability. When it all clicks, I think he really steps forward. Could be this season.
flyingdutchman (Oakland, CA): Sure, his K rate is rising slightly, but it was still only 5.5/9 in 2012, and he posted a 1.53 WHIP, same number of walks, etc. So what does it mean to say that Porcello shows "good pitchability"?
Jason Parks: Pitchability means he knows how to pitch; sequence/feel, changing speeds, changing sight lines, etc. His raw stuff is getting better. He's ticking up across the board. The K's will come. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes another step forward in '13.
flyingdutchman (Oakland, CA): Sorry to bug you, but hey, you've been here all day so it's your fault! Still skeptical on this nebulous "pitchability". If he is getting better at sequencing, getting a better feel, changing speeds, and changing sight lines, why isn't it showing up in his numbers? As for the raw stuff (which it seems the Tigers initially suppressed, frankly), has this improvement been documented in any way, avg MPH, break, etc?
Jason Parks: Because he just hasn't put it all together yet. I think a pitcher has to learn how to miss bats. They can have the pitchablity and they can have the stuff, but they have to learn how to up the intensity and go for the throat. Strikeout pitchers are blood-thirsty sharks. Porcello can get passive and pitch to weak contact, which is fine. But I think he has a chance to go for the throat more in '13. If he can find that missing ingredient, he has the physical ability to make it happen.
Comment