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What do you guys think?
420 ABS 30 hrs. .265 ave.
Am I too bullish?
420 ABS 30 hrs. .265 ave.
Am I too bullish?
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Picking him late in Mock One, I would be ecstatic with those numbers. I am counting on the 420 at bats, but only banking on 20+ homers. -
I think that is as high side as you can get. If you pay for that, your best hope is to get what you paid for and you have nothing but downside.Comment
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That seems a little crazy. Remember this is the same Brandon Moss who's been in the league for pieces of six seasons and has never done anything close to what he did in a half season last year, and you're projecting him for the same power he had last season. He's spent multiple full seasons in AAA and never put up the power numbers he had last year.
As a decent half-assed comp, look at Garrett Jones. He put up about the same numbers in his first season that Moss did last year at the same age, without the additional evidence of the one disappointing full major league season that Moss has already had, and his numbers weren't nearly as good the next couple years. Although Jones was good last year... though still not as good as your projection for Moss.
edited after a bit more research: he had a .359 BABIP and the fourth highest HR/FB rate in baseball, only behind Dunn, Stanton, and Howard. He had very similar numbers to Pedro Alvarez, except with a much higher BABIP. I just don't see it. None of Fangraphs' listed projections (Steamer, Bill James, Oliver) have him at more than a 20 HR/420 AB rate, although they all have him with more AB than that, which I wouldn't count on either...
I'd put the over/under at 20 HR and a .250 average.Last edited by mjl; 02-11-2013, 02:42 AM.In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.Comment
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He hit .293 in 58 ABs against lefties (with only a 24.2% K rate), and .290 in 207 ABs against righties (with a 32.1% K rate).
It's a very small sample size but if he's not hopeless against lefties then I'm a little more intrigued. Even though he probably won't face many lefties with the A's having so many infielders.
I think .240-25HR in 500ish ABs is about as good as it's going to get.Comment
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