BJ Upton or Trumbo?

[Mr. Nor'easters]

I play in a competitive, daily subs 14-team H2H points league, where counting stats stress run production for hitters and quality innings for pitchers. We have liberal career position eligibility, which enhances the daily lineup changes.

We get 6 keepers, and 5 have been pretty easy:
- Encarnacion (1B/3B)
- Adrian Gonzo (1B)
- Holliday (OF)
- Wieters (C)
- Shields (over Medlen, the other SP contender here)

That leaves a final choice between Trumbo and BJ. The prognosticators have been all over the map on these two. HQ has BJ with more than 90 RBI, but most touts put him around 74. If BJ steals 30 bases, that equals 10 RBI in our scoring. BJ is a maddeningly frustrating guy to won, and Trumbo has more upside, IMO.

Does anyone have any strong feelings about either of them?

all thoughts are appreciated ... thanks!

[Hornsby]

Personally, I don't think that Trumbo does have more upside, I like Upton for the ceiling potential. Trumbo fell off the table last year in the 2nd half, hitting only .227 with 10 HR's and 38 RBI. Conversely, Upton hit 21 HR's in the 2nd half, had 49 RBI, AND had 16 steals...honestly, I don't think it's even close.

[Goalie]

From a completely personal point of view, the best year of sports I ever played was the year I played high school football with my brother. Used to put the pads on after practice and hit each other some more. I know its a big leap to MLB and professional sports from high school football but I like the Uptons to be very motivated this year. (plus our team sucked...)

From a talent point of view, I agree with Horns, Upton all the way...

[DJBeasties]

I agree with the Horns. I would go Upton. Neither of those two are fun in H2H though because they are streaky. I think Trumbo was hurt in the 2nd half so maybe his power outage was driven by that. But unless you have a positional need to keep Trumbo, I would take BJ Upton, his .245 BA and the HRs and SBs that come with it.

[Mr. Nor'easters]

I agree with the Horns. I would go Upton. Neither of those two are fun in H2H though because they are streaky. I think Trumbo was hurt in the 2nd half so maybe his power outage was driven by that. But unless you have a positional need to keep Trumbo, I would take BJ Upton, his .245 BA and the HRs and SBs that come with it.

Too true ... the streakiness is maddening. My biggest gripe with Upton is that the last couple season, BJ has gotten hot in September and hung up a lot of his stats then. By then, I'm out of the playoffs because of his miserable Augusts ...

[Stephen]

Too true ... the streakiness is maddening. My biggest gripe with Upton is that the last couple season, BJ has gotten hot in September and hung up a lot of his stats then. By then, I'm out of the playoffs because of his miserable Augusts ...

That's a fair point, but we aren't talking about Upton versus Hamilton or Holliday here. We're talking about Upton versus Trumbo. I agree with the others - there isn't even a discussion here. Upton by a landslide.

Also, I'd keep Kris Medlen over James Shields.

[Gregg]

Personally, I don't think that Trumbo does have more upside, I like Upton for the ceiling potential. Trumbo fell off the table last year in the 2nd half, hitting only .227 with 10 HR's and 38 RBI. Conversely, Upton hit 21 HR's in the 2nd half, had 49 RBI, AND had 16 steals...honestly, I don't think it's even close.

Agree 100% with this.

[Mr. Nor'easters]

Thanks, guys ... There has been some interest form a couple team owners in Trumbo, which got my attention ... but they wouldn't cough up the draft pick for him. I appreciate the input.

[rhd]

Yeah, Upton for me too. Seems like he's been around forever but still it's only his age 29 season and he's only 2 yrs older than Trumbo. And Upton is going to a better hitting environment and a better lineup. You might want to get a high batting average guy to offset Upton's likely drag on your BA.

[Mr. Nor'easters]

Yeah, Upton for me too. Seems like he's been around forever but still it's only his age 29 season and he's only 2 yrs older than Trumbo. And Upton is going to a better hitting environment and a better lineup. You might want to get a high batting average guy to offset Upton's likely drag on your BA.

BA isn't an issue with our points system ... what counts most is RBI, followed by runs ...

[DJBeasties]

As an overall profile, Upton is better but if you are really emphasizing RBI then it's much closer in my opinion. They are both expected to hit in the 5-hole and their runs created per game are right around 5.00 I would expect. If runs scored are next, I would still lean Upton.

[Mr. Nor'easters]

It's a points league. An RBI is important only insofar as it's a point.


I agree with the rest --- keep Upton over Trumbo. Frankly, though, I'd be pretty tempted to keep Medlen instead of both Trumbo and BJ.

Medlen? With just a few keepers, I think reliability is crucial for a keeper. I also have Ian Kennedy. Medlen is completely unpredictable, IMO. He could be 12-10 as easily as 15-6. And, I suspect I could draft him back in the first or second round.

[DJBeasties]

Hey, just offering my opinion. You're making a huge mistake if you're banking on some number of wins, by the way. Wins are notoriously difficult to predict. Moreover, I'm not so sure that Shields is a slam dunk for more wins than Medlen.


Additionally, if you're looking for reliability I think that going with BJ Upton or Mark Trumbo is not optimal. Neither one is reliable in the least.

Upton is pretty straight for the course of the year. His RC/G and roto value has fluctuated very little over the last three years. But when you are talking week-to-week consistency he is all over the place. But at the end of the year his numbers are pretty consistent. In H2H, you can't roster too many guys that are rollercoasters or you will end up punching yourself in the face.

[Mr. Nor'easters]

Hey, just offering my opinion. You're making a huge mistake if you're banking on some number of wins, by the way. Wins are notoriously difficult to predict. Moreover, I'm not so sure that Shields is a slam dunk for more wins than Medlen.


Additionally, if you're looking for reliability I think that going with BJ Upton or Mark Trumbo is not optimal. Neither one is reliable in the least.

I think Shields is ultra-reliable for quality innings ... I would bet he pitches 50 more innings than Medlen and will have many more Ks. Those are key stats for our scoring.

[Hornsby]

I think Shields is ultra-reliable for quality innings ... I would bet he pitches 50 more innings than Medlen and will have many more Ks. Those are key stats for our scoring.

I don't know about that...as recently as 2010 Shields had a season ERA over 5 and allowed 43 more hits than innings pitched. The next year he allowed 54 hits LESS than innings pitched, that's hardly reliable. In 2012, he had an ERA of about 4.50 for May June and July, and about 2.20 for August and September...that's not consistent in my book. I agree with ELD (Hey Now!), I think Medlan is a better option.