Beltre in 7th or Machado in 25th, keep who?

[dannahann]

12T 5x5 mixed roto keeper. Traditional 14H + 9P starting lineup with 5 bench.
We can keep up to 7 each season in exchange for their slotted draft round. Keep eligible rounds are 2 rounds sooner than where they were drafted or kept the prior season, (ie I kept Beltre in 9th last year, would be in 7th this year). Guys previously drafted or kept in 1st or 2nd can't be kept.

I'm trying to decide which 3B to keep between Beltre in the 7th or Machado in the 25th. Both offer huge value. I know Beltre should outproduce Manny by a substantial amount but my primary motivation to consider Machado is he'll hold high keep value for a number of seasons. There are no restrictions on numbers of times kept and I've been able to trade that level of clout for titles in 2011 and 2012.

My other 6 keeps look like this:
Votto - rnd 1 (have to keep him as part of an offseason trade)
Kimbrel - rnd 10 (have to keep him as part of an offseason trade)
Harper - rnd 14
Butler - rnd 16
C Santana - rnd 19
Sale - rnd 23
Other than the 3B in question these are the best of my bubble keeps Hamels 2nd, Lee 4th, Kipnis 9th, Cueto 10th, Fister 15th, Holland KC 20th

Which 3B do I keep? Do any of my bubble keeps steal a spot from the Harper, Butler, C Santana, or Sale?

[Stephen]

You have a team built to win this season. I'd keep Beltre as a 7th over Machado as a 25th. I like Machado, but I want to see one more year out of him before I rely on him.

As for your other keepers, I think I'd go with what you have since it's a 12 team league. In a deeper league I think you could make an argument for keeping Cueto or Fister over Santana, but there are plenty of pitch and ditch options in a 12 team league.

[Gregg]

Beltre for me.

I like Machado much better in AL only leagues for this year than mixed. I also like him better as a long term keeper than for this year.

[revo]

Beltre. Machado may not make much of a fantasy impact in a 12-team league with that few bench spots.

[Don Quixote]

I agree with the others. If, as Stephen says, you're built to win this year, go with Beltre.

For the record, I think Machado is going to be terrific--down the line.

[Erik]

I agree with what everyone has said.

[KnuckleBalls]

The prospect of keeping Machado for virtually "ever" is very tempting. Without knowing the rest of the leagues keepers I would say you are in the running even if you keep Manny. Sorry to disagree with the majority but these types of late round studs don't come around too often and can sustain you for a very long time. If you are not sold on Manny as I am, he would be very good trade bait and could give you an early round super stud to maybe replace Santana. You can always get catching IMO.

[KnuckleBalls]

By the way, I just traded a 22 round Machado for a 13 Joey Bats so others are gonna value him highly.

[Stephen]

I'd say you lucked out there with that deal and that can hardly be considered the value of a Machado.

It only takes one guy who fell in love with a prospect to make a deal like that, but finding that one guy is the key. Congrats on finding him.

If you are trying to win a championship in your league this year, you have to take Beltre over Machado and not even think twice about it.

[DJBeasties]

The round(s) disparity between Beltre and Machado makes this enticing but given your core and my assumption that you will fill out the rest of the roster well, I think you need to keep Beltre. Beltre is the kind of guy you would likely be trading a prospect like Machado for later in the season. If you are really confident in your draft abilities and you think you can overcome the production difference in '13 between Beltre and Machado, then swing for the fences.

Machado is a gem but it's one of those tricky positions to be in. I would look at now though at try to win now. I don't think (think) Machado can give you half the production that you will get from a roto beast like Beltre in Year 1 ('13) but I think it all comes down to how you think you will overcome the difference.

Machado is a super nice looking prospect though for 20 years old.

[dannahann]

I'd say you lucked out there with that deal and that can hardly be considered the value of a Machado.

It only takes one guy who fell in love with a prospect to make a deal like that, but finding that one guy is the key. Congrats on finding him.

If you are trying to win a championship in your league this year, you have to take Beltre over Machado and not even think twice about it.

KnuckleBall's Machado/Bautista example isn't really off the mark. I've had this club for five seasons. It was dreadful when I took it over, scoring a whopping 19.5 roto points the year prior. Mid season trades of commodities very much like Manny are one of the keys to me now being back to back defending champ. Two years ago I simply posted that a round 26 Des Jennings and some lesser keeps were available and that I needed a high average bat preferably in the middle infield and stud ratio SP to anchor my staff. Offers came in and a couple days later I had a lame duck Cano and 6th round Cliff Lee. Lee in the 6th was part of that second title too but a similar mid season trade (Freeman 21st for lame duck Prince Fielder) sealed it. Thats why this is so tough for me to decide. I agree that Beltre is the surer path to a 3 peat but Manny could set up that plus more. One additional thing I'm beginning to worry about is that guys will get leery to trade me anything. A guy in another keeper league has like 6 titles in 15 years and I know I myself have trouble wanting to 'help him out' with trades.

[Stephen]

Some leagues just have guys that want to perpetually trade for "the next big thing" and end up being middle of the pack annually. Personally, I'd like to win my leagues.