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2012 stats: 607ab, 226/294/328, 12hr, 50rbi, 84r, 13sb (3 cs).
2012 indicators: 8.8% walk rate, 18.6% K rate, .265 BABIP; 19.4% LD rate, 45.5% GB rate, 35.1% FB rate, 7.1% HR/FB
In 2011, he had an even better 10.6% BB rate, a worse 21% K rate, but a BABIP of .339.
I am sure most people have heard the scouting reports that he's "just not that good" and not what you'd want out of the #2 overall pick. But he has a relatively solid job and some upside in his BABIP. And "not a star" isn't the same thing as "bad."
From this Mariners' blog post:
So I think there could be some upside here. If you give him his .273 average from 2011, his 12 HR and 13 SB are a lot more attractive. With the fences moving in, maybe 15-16 HR is reasonable, and if the 4 DH types the Mariners play in their lineup actually hit, then maybe he drives in a few more runs. If he hits at all, he's probably staying in the leadoff spot.
.275, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 95 R, 15 SB
2012 indicators: 8.8% walk rate, 18.6% K rate, .265 BABIP; 19.4% LD rate, 45.5% GB rate, 35.1% FB rate, 7.1% HR/FB
In 2011, he had an even better 10.6% BB rate, a worse 21% K rate, but a BABIP of .339.
I am sure most people have heard the scouting reports that he's "just not that good" and not what you'd want out of the #2 overall pick. But he has a relatively solid job and some upside in his BABIP. And "not a star" isn't the same thing as "bad."
From this Mariners' blog post:
Dustin Ackley's surgery went just fine, and Rick Griffin believes the bone spur had an effect on Ackley's swing, so there's reason to believe he'll be a lot better in 2013.
So I think there could be some upside here. If you give him his .273 average from 2011, his 12 HR and 13 SB are a lot more attractive. With the fences moving in, maybe 15-16 HR is reasonable, and if the 4 DH types the Mariners play in their lineup actually hit, then maybe he drives in a few more runs. If he hits at all, he's probably staying in the leadoff spot.
.275, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 95 R, 15 SB