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Triple-E had a breakout for the ages in 2012, setting career highs in Runs, Hits, HRs, RBIs, SBs, OBP, SLG & OPS in his 8th season in the majors. Where the hell did this breakout come from? More importantly, should you pay what should be a large amount of 2013 dollars for 2012 stats?
His BABIP was only .266, so that obviously didn't help him attain his .280 BA. His GB%, FB% and LD% all remained pretty stable to his career norms, so that didn't help either. But his HR/FB rate was a career high of 18.7%, when in 2011 it was just 9.4%. And while he's always been a power hitter of sorts, his 27.6% HR/H rate bested his prior HR/H high in 2010 (25.9%).
His speed score, according to Fangraphs, was 3.6, which also is in line with his career norms, but he did steal 13 bases in 16 attempts (both career highs), and this after attempting all of 5 steals from 2008-2010. He did steal 8 bases in 2011, however, so his 5-base improvement also isn't out of the realm of fantasy.
He stayed relatively healthy in '12, getting more PAs than ever before, but how does that explain the doubling of his RBIs from 55 in 2011 to 110 in 2012? Or blasting 42 HRs when his previous high was 26? There's really nothing in his skill set that screams it was a fluke, but OTOH, there's nothing here that would say these numbers can continue. And for an 8-year vet who has been solid, if unspectacular, to have these numbers looks to just be a consolidation in a single career year.
I think he'll be a solid player in 2k13, but I think paying for 2012 stats may be going beyond the realm of reality with EEE. I'd chalk up 2012 as a career outlier, and pay for something in between 2011 and 2012.
.265 BA
500 ABs
77 R
29 HR
83 RBI
10 SB
His BABIP was only .266, so that obviously didn't help him attain his .280 BA. His GB%, FB% and LD% all remained pretty stable to his career norms, so that didn't help either. But his HR/FB rate was a career high of 18.7%, when in 2011 it was just 9.4%. And while he's always been a power hitter of sorts, his 27.6% HR/H rate bested his prior HR/H high in 2010 (25.9%).
His speed score, according to Fangraphs, was 3.6, which also is in line with his career norms, but he did steal 13 bases in 16 attempts (both career highs), and this after attempting all of 5 steals from 2008-2010. He did steal 8 bases in 2011, however, so his 5-base improvement also isn't out of the realm of fantasy.
He stayed relatively healthy in '12, getting more PAs than ever before, but how does that explain the doubling of his RBIs from 55 in 2011 to 110 in 2012? Or blasting 42 HRs when his previous high was 26? There's really nothing in his skill set that screams it was a fluke, but OTOH, there's nothing here that would say these numbers can continue. And for an 8-year vet who has been solid, if unspectacular, to have these numbers looks to just be a consolidation in a single career year.
I think he'll be a solid player in 2k13, but I think paying for 2012 stats may be going beyond the realm of reality with EEE. I'd chalk up 2012 as a career outlier, and pay for something in between 2011 and 2012.
.265 BA
500 ABs
77 R
29 HR
83 RBI
10 SB
- Wonderboy
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