Real Mock #1 Discussion Thread

[BigJonEmpire]

Of course, but in a real money league, you also don't want to lose because your first round pick didn't meet huge expectations. And his stat line from last year is actually already pretty good, so building on it could be a huge proposition, even for this hitting prodigy.

No doubt. I am embracing a lot of risk with such a young and inexperienced player.

[the splinter]

Is there roster thread somewhere...

[Frank]

BJE and Buckey have been PM'ed

[Riff Raff]

While I understand the Bryce Harper love, I think him being the #14 overall player is extremely risky. If he finishes the year with similar stats to last season, I don't think that parks him in the Top 50, let alone top 20. I'm not going to compare him to last year's sophomore mancrushes since neither were as hyped as Harper for as long, but I think Harper needs to greatly improve his stat line to justify being 14th overall.

To see Longoria, Reyes, Tulo go after Harper is surprising to me.

mgwiz22 and TSGarp are loaded @ MI - nice work guys.

[revo]

To see Longoria, Reyes, Tulo go after Harper is surprising to me.

mgwiz22 and TSGarp are loaded @ MI - nice work guys.

Couldn't agree more. I think a good high-end comp for Harper in 2k13 is Adam Jones......so if you can get Adam Jones in Rd 5, I don't see why someone would take Harper in Rd 1.

[BigJonEmpire]

Reyes is injury prone and moving to turf which won't help.

Tulo - always hurt

Longoria - not as bad as Tulo but also has missed quite a bit of time.

I'd bet money Harper is worth at least ten bucks more than Jones at the end of the season. And it wasn't that far ahead of ADP for whatever that is worth:

Mixed 5x5 - Limited Average Draft Position for 115 qualifying drafts run between 01/17/2013 - 01/21/2013 (last updated on 01/21/2013 at 11:39 AM EST) copyright © 2010 MockDraftCentral.com
1)	Mike Trout	OF	ANA	1.51	1	4	100.0%
2)	Ryan Braun	OF	MIL	2.21	1	4	100.0%
3)	Miguel Cabrera	3B	DET	2.55	1	4	100.0%
4)	Matt Kemp	OF	LA	4.50	4	7	100.0%
5)	Robinson Cano	2B	NYY	5.77	4	10	100.0%
6)	Andrew McCutchen	OF	PIT	5.98	4	9	100.0%
7)	Albert Pujols	1B,DH	ANA	7.21	5	10	100.0%
8)	Joey Votto	1B	CIN	8.82	4	12	100.0%
9)	Buster Posey	C,1B	SF	9.94	7	20	100.0%
10)	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	COL	10.09	6	17	100.0%
11)	Clayton Kershaw	SP	LA	11.66	7	19	100.0%
12)	Jose Bautista	OF,OF	TOR	13.74	7	21	100.0%
13)	Prince Fielder	1B	DET	14.05	8	21	100.0%
14)	Justin Upton	OF	ARI	14.47	10	26	100.0%
15)	Justin Verlander	SP	DET	15.58	9	24	100.0%
16)	Adrian Beltre	3B,DH	TEX	16.00	12	25	100.0%
17)	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	COL	17.29	9	26	100.0%
18)	Bryce Harper	OF	WAS	19.43	14	33	100.0%
19)	Stephen Strasburg	SP	WAS	20.88	7	33	100.0%
20)	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	ARI	22.17	16	35	100.0%
21)	David Price	SP	TB	23.06	16	34	100.0%
22)	Adam Jones	OF	BAL	24.66	18	37	100.0%
23)	Josh Hamilton	OF	ANA	25.82	13	41	100.0%
24)	David Wright	3B	NYM	26.84	16	35	100.0%
25)	Mike Stanton	OF	MIA	28.59	12	59	100.0%

[Riff Raff]

I guess i'm old school. I don't hedge my bets with wunderkids. I might be risk averse but i'm also know history repeats itself. I'll let someone else put the premium on the young guys.

[revo]

I'm not busting on you Jon, I'm like RR-- usually the teams that get too cutesy with the kids get burned. If you can get a solid vet comp, why not lessen the risk?

I was shocked to see Harper as a 1st rounder, and I'm pretty surprised at this ADP. But let others take that huge risk......

[BigJonEmpire]

I'm not taking it badly, just trying to defend the pick as an educated risk rather than a foolish one. Though I am a fan of the kids I would not usually take such a young player in the first round. But I truly believe that Harper will be worthy of the pick. Had Adam taken someone other than Stanton I would have taken Stanton instead. At that point it seemed to me that I either take a risk based on health or I take one based on reaching upside potential. I actually think Trout at #3 is riskier than Harper at #14. I love Trout but I'm glad I didn't have to decide on him that early.

Also, I am of the belief that Adam Jones just had the best season of his career. and DAMN I just missed the beginning of Justified again!!

[Frank]

[QUOTE=revo;120863]Couldn't agree more. I think a good high-end comp for Harper in 2k13 is Adam Jones......so if you can get Adam Jones in Rd 5, I don't see why someone would take Harper in Rd 1.[/QUOTE

Ouch !! -so your suggesting Adam Jones is a 5th rd pick in our 20 team mixed?

[BigJonEmpire]

One of the fangraphs.com guys wrote this in November:

What Harper was able to do last season was basically unprecedented. His 4.9 WAR was the highest ever for a 19-year-old player. That figure includes his defense, which, as we know, is not a factor in fantasy leagues. Still, Harper’s offensive performance was pretty impressive.

Mel Ott	Giants	124	499	0.322	0.397	0.524	0.418	4.6
Tony Conigliaro	Red Sox	111	444	0.290	0.354	0.530	0.388	2.8
Ty Cobb	Tigers	98	394	0.316	0.355	0.394	0.364	3.0
Mickey Mantle	Yankees	96	386	0.267	0.349	0.443	0.363	1.8
Jimmy Sheckard	Bridegrooms	105	459	0.277	0.349	0.392	0.359	1.3
Bryce Harper	Nationals	139	597	0.270	0.340	0.477	0.352	4.9
Cesar Cedeno	Astros	90	377	0.310	0.340	0.451	0.350	1.7
Buddy Lewis	Senators	143	657	0.291	0.347	0.399	0.346	2.9

Harper’s .352 wOBA ranked as the sixth best offensive performance by a 19-year-old player. And it also puts him among some great company. But just because Harper is ranked among some of the best players to ever take part in the game, it doesn’t tell us much about how Harper will perform next year. It is positive, however, that almost every player on that list managed to improve their offensive performance the following season.

Mel Ott	0.418	0.475	+0.57
Tony Conigliaro	0.388	0.372	-0.16
Ty Cobb	0.364	0.411	+0.47
Mickey Mantle	0.363	0.421	+0.58
Jimmy Sheckard	0.359	0.373	+0.14
Bryce Harper	0.352	???	???
Cesar Cedeno	0.350	0.308	-0.42
Buddy Lewis	0.346	0.365	+0.19

The only player to suffer a significant decline the next year was Cesar Cedeno, who lost 0.42 points off his wOBA. Tony Conigliaro also declined, but only by 0.16 points of wOBA. Overall, the players in the same class as Harper managed to improve their wOBAs by an average of 0.27 points during their age-20 seasons. If Harper manages to increase his wOBA by the average next season, he would finish with a .379 wOBA, which, as a guideline, would have ranked as one of the top 15 offensive performances in the league last season.
While the first thing anyone mentions about Harper is his light-tower power, he also proved that he’s capable of becoming a strong base stealer. Harper showed aggressiveness on the base paths, not only taking the extra base when possible, but also taking advantage of teams that don’t pay attention to him once he gets on base. A 30 home run, 20 steal season is not out of the question next year. On top of that, he walked at an adequate rate, and didn’t strike out at an extreme level, especially considering his age.

[Weapon1]

He's not just backed up by ADP in doing it:

http://www.rtsports.com/fsta (before all 3)

http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showt...try-mock-draft (before Reyes).

Not sure I would have picked Harper ahead of Tulo, but Longoria has put up two disappointing years, and Reyes is going to a team that might not give him as many as green lights

[Frank]

I actually think Trout at #3 is riskier than Harper at #14.
Also, I am of the belief that( at 23 yrs Old ) Adam Jones just had the best season of his career.

These are epic projections BJE

[BigJonEmpire]

You're missing a few years there Frank. He was born in 1985 (August 1st).

[Frank]

You're missing a few years there Frank. He was born in 1985 (August 1st).

Affirm and sorry bout dat BJE....I was obsessing all day on Jason Heyward and was disjointed to see he was picked - I feel good about Jones as my plan "B"