2K13: Derek Holland

[Ryno84MVP]

I'm not sure what to expect this year. Entered 2012 with much hype and then gave-up 32 home runs -- in just 175 innings -- and finished with a 4.67 ERA. He also lost some time to shoulder fatigue. He did manage a 1.22 WHIP (down from 1.35 in 2011).

Bill James projects similar to last season, except for an improved ERA

10-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.46 K/9, 187 IP

Does he turn the corner this year and move-up to another level, or is he just another mid-level pitcher with a good team behind him?

What would you pay for him in an AL-only league?

[Gregg]

I would probably pay $10-$13 for him at auction in our 12 team 5x5 AL ultra.

An owner in my AL 5x5 has him in the last year of his extended contract at $15 tried to trade him to me. I looked at the amount of pitching back in the auction and decided to pass. I think I would rather have the money at auction.

[joncarlos]

The shoulder issue makes it hard to judge his full-season numbers, but here's what it looks like:

2011: 7.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.94 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP
2012: 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.75 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP

In 2011, he had a 73% strand rate, but a .305 BABIP. In 2012, he had a 68% strand rate, but only a .261 BABIP.

Holland threw 46% ground balls in 2011 (good) and only 43% in 2012 (less good). The change in BABIP was supported by a 3% drop in his LD rate, meaning his FB% went up 7%. I don't love a rising FB% in that ballpark. Even if you write off the spike in HR/FB because of the shoulder, he is still going to give up a lot of taters based on that FB%.

His pitch mix also changed a little - more curveballs and less changeups was the primary difference, also a few more fastballs and a few less sliders.

I think James' projection is close, maybe a little optimistic in the ERA. I'll go 190 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 4.15 ERA, 155 Ks, 14 wins

[joncarlos]

Has Dutch moved into must-start territory? He's scorching hot right now. I sat him against Boston and regretted it. I bravely started him in Miller Park, a bad place for a HR-prone pitcher against a lineup that hammers lefties, and he rewarded my faith. It looks like he's on track for 2 starts (vs DET and @OAK) next week. Those are pretty tough matchups too.

[Controller Jacobs]

I benched him the week he had @LAA and @MIN, so for me he's got five starts with era/whip of 1.21/0.918.

The bad thing about last year is he had a terrible ERA at home, but his home whip was 1.29, and opponents hit .256 off him there in spite of 84K/91 IP.
His HR rate was bad overall last year, much higher than 2012, and it's dropped through the floor this year.

So overall I'd say he's correcting at home, and will end up a pretty solid pitcher. He's due for a few more HRs, so I think his ERA will raise. But the WHIP, Wins and Ks should make up for it.

[Moonlight J]

Dutch has been there all year. Writing him up for Rotowire tomorrow. There's been a change in process with him - particularly with his increased usage of secondary pitches