Jack Suwinski vs Lars Nootbar

[Sour Masher]

I've been offered Nootbar for Suwinski. Nootbar is $10 through next year. Suwinski is $5 and I could keep him at that or extend next year. Nootbar's numbers are bad, but Suwinski's numbers are worse, but his K rate is way down and he is hitting the ball fairly hard, so I think he should come around. I'm inclined to decline, but I wanted to check in to see what others think.

[harmon]

In this situation I would want the cheaper guy as he would have a (minimally) greater chance of being kept.

[Ken]

Are you looking for a keeper or for this year? Neither guy looks like a very attractive keeper but I'd easily take Nootbar for this year.

[harmon]

Are you looking for a keeper or for this year? Neither guy looks like a very attractive keeper but I'd easily take Nootbar for this year.

ADP coming in to the season were very similar. Suwinski slightly ahead.

Basically a trade off between HR for Suwinski, BA for Noot.

For this year just depends on your needs for HR or BA. If that's not the decider may as well go with the cheaper guy.

[Sour Masher]

Are you looking for a keeper or for this year? Neither guy looks like a very attractive keeper but I'd easily take Nootbar for this year.

I'm mostly focused on this year, although having Nootbar on a guaranteed deal does concern me some. Suwinksi I can keep or not. Nootbar, I'd have to buy out if I don't wanna keep him. We keep 15, so assuming he performs as well as last year, he is probably not a bad contract, but I generally avoid extending players of his caliber in a league this size (14 teams).

[Ken]

ADP coming in to the season were very similar. Suwinski slightly ahead.

Basically a trade off between HR for Suwinski, BA for Noot.

For this year just depends on your needs for HR or BA. If that's not the decider may as well go with the cheaper guy.

ADP doesn't tell me much at this point - wasnt Noobar hurt which affected ADP pre-season but has 0 impact now? Advanced stats seem to suggest Nootbar is the better bet for both HR and BA, at least based on 2024 metrics. Maybe they need more time to stabalize, not sure.

Nootbar .477 xSLG vs Suwinski .385
Nootbar .285 xBA vs Suwinski .245

[Sour Masher]

ADP doesn't tell me much at this point - wasnt Noobar hurt which affected ADP pre-season but has 0 impact now? Advanced stats seem to suggest Nootbar is the better bet for both HR and BA, at least based on 2024 metrics. Maybe they need more time to stabalize, not sure.

Nootbar .477 xSLG vs Suwinski .385
Nootbar .285 xBA vs Suwinski .245

The question I should have made clearer is not just if Nootbar is better than Suwinski, but whether he is enough better to warrant taking on Nootbar on a guaranteed contract for next year. I'm still grappling with trying to figure if the difference in their ROS production will warrant trading for Nootbar, who I'd have to keep for $10 next year. I was leaning no, but your argument that Nootbar is substantially better makes me reconsider. Maybe he will even be good enough to justify his contract.

[harmon]

The question I should have made clearer is not just if Nootbar is better than Suwinski, but whether he is enough better to warrant taking on Nootbar on a guaranteed contract for next year. I'm still grappling with trying to figure if the difference in their ROS production will warrant trading for Nootbar, who I'd have to keep for $10 next year. I was leaning no, but your argument that Nootbar is substantially better makes me reconsider. Maybe he will even be good enough to justify his contract.

Guess I didn't detail my argument very well.

Anyway I would lean more on full season 2023 stats than one month of 2024 x stats and only 63 plate appearances in Nootbaars' case.

Suwinski - .339/.454/.793 26HR 63R 74RBI 13SB .224BA 534 PA

Nootbaar - .367/.418/.784 14HR 74R 46RBI 11SB .261BA 503PA

Both are about the same age, bat left, full time OF in the NL Central on middling teams.

One is $10 with strings, the other $5 with no strings. Nootbaar is substantially better? I'm not seeing it.

[Sour Masher]

Thank you harmon. You make a compelling case and I am grateful for it. Ken made a compelling case as well, but I guess deep down, I wanted to keep Suwinski, because I am more persuaded by your argument. Maybe it is confirmation bias, but I am gonna stick with Suwinksi. Despite the xslg edge Ken cited, I have the sense that Suwinski has more power potential than Nootbar, and the numbers from last year seem to support that. Of course, if he can't raise his BA, he won't be able to get it it. Here's to hoping he comes around!

[Ken]

Thank you harmon. You make a compelling case and I am grateful for it. Ken made a compelling case as well, but I guess deep down, I wanted to keep Suwinski, because I am more persuaded by your argument. Maybe it is confirmation bias, but I am gonna stick with Suwinksi. Despite the xslg edge Ken cited, I have the sense that Suwinski has more power potential than Nootbar, and the numbers from last year seem to support that. Of course, if he can't raise his BA, he won't be able to get it it. Here's to hoping he comes around!

No problem - part of this is a difference in philosophy. If I'm going for it this year a $5 difference means literally nothing to me. I've found if you try to toe the line of both going for this year and also building for next even if you give up only incremental value this year you are going to end up doing neither.

In your shoes I'd go for it and take the better overall hitter and fantasy asset in Nootbar.

[Sour Masher]

No problem - part of this is a difference in philosophy. If I'm going for it this year a $5 difference means literally nothing to me. I've found if you try to toe the line of both going for this year and also building for next even if you give up only incremental value this year you are going to end up doing neither.

In your shoes I'd go for it and take the better overall hitter and fantasy asset in Nootbar.

Oh, I'm on board with that philosophy. When I switched to this attitude is when I started winning more consistently. In the context of a 14 team mixed league, I'd contend that part of my reticence to take on Nootbar is about winning this year. I'm an active trader and while this year, I have run into roadblocks, because a lot of the league has openly admitted to not being willing to make an equitable deal with me, because they don't want me to 3peat, I still think, later in the year, there will be takers for my top prospects and keepers that will net me much better players than Nootbar. Sure, Nootbar could be included in those deals, but if he does falter, he becomes difficult to move and since I cannot drop him like I can Suwinski, that is a factor.

I currently have a lot of undroppable players, so I want to be careful of adding another undroppable player who isn't a clear upgrade for my starting line up. In this case, while I was comparing Suwinski and Nootbar, I also have five better outfielders, at least until Brandon Marsh's hot bat cools down, and Tommy Edman coming back soon. Nootbar isn't replacing Suwinski in my line up every week. He'd be bench depth, at least some weeks, unless and until he really steps it up, although I suppose I could justify starting him over Randy Arozarena if Nootbar gets hot before Randy does. I may benefit some from him in the short term, if he starts his turn around soon to surpass Marsh, who I'm sure will fade, but longer term, I'm eying bigger studs that I'm hoping to land, and in my league a guy like Nootbar who is not elite and is on a one year extension is just not as attractive as a hot prospect or a guy who can be kept longer. Even if he is doing well, he is unlikely to net me a big expiring contract player and he may be an impediment to a deal, if the other team doesn't want to take him back in a deal. So, I have to consider if I can keep riding hot bats like Marsh and maybe Edman until I can land one of those bigger fish, and I think I can. I may change tactics if I fall out of the top 4. If that happens, I may want an incremental upgrade now over waiting for a bigger one later.

[The Feral Slasher]

I think what it really comes down to, is this. if you're in a dark alleyway at 1:30 am, on a saturday night...some dodgy blokes in the vicinity....who do you want or your team? Do you want Nootbar or Suwinski ? Throw out all the sabermetrics and data, that's all shit. Who is there for you ?

[The Feral Slasher]

The question I should have made clearer is not just if Nootbar is better than Suwinski, but whether he is enough better to warrant taking on Nootbar on a guaranteed contract for next year. I'm still grappling with trying to figure if the difference in their ROS production will warrant trading for Nootbar, who I'd have to keep for $10 next year. I was leaning no, but your argument that Nootbar is substantially better makes me reconsider. Maybe he will even be good enough to justify his contract.

so despite my last post, ha ha, I'd say the requirement to keep Nootbar next year may tip the scales. Honestly these are bit players in your run to the championship...so no need to assume a guaranteed contract for Nootbar, he just doesn't seem that good.

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[Sour Masher]

I think what it really comes down to, is this. if you're in a dark alleyway at 1:30 am, on a saturday night...some dodgy blokes in the vicinity....who do you want or your team? Do you want Nootbar or Suwinski ? Throw out all the sabermetrics and data, that's all shit. Who is there for you ?

The tail of the tap is close. They are about the same size. So, I'm gonna go with the scary name. Jack evokes the ripper, his last name sounds kinda like a blade cutting through the air. Lars Nootbar sounds like a candy bar.

[The Feral Slasher]

The tail of the tap is close. They are about the same size. So, I'm gonna go with the scary name. Jack evokes the ripper, his last name sounds kinda like a blade cutting through the air. Lars Nootbar sounds like a candy bar.

you have chosen wisely