Latest Example of Why Wins Suck

[Sour Masher]

I know there are lots of examples of this, but the one I'm struck by this season for my team so far is Kutter Crawford. He has a 0.42 era, giving up 1 run over 4 starts, including today. He has zero wins.

[Teenwolf]

Do you think switching to QS is a better category than W to assess SP value though? I struggle with this. If we down shifted the QS requirements from 6 IP, 3 ER or better, to 5 IP, 2 ER, I think I'd support that over Wins, at this point.

I saw a graph showing the percentage of Wins going to starters vs relievers going down year over year for like 20 years. Kinda changed my thinking on the long-term viability of Wins as a category.

[Sharky]

I’ve been considering IP instead.

[Sour Masher]

Do you think switching to QS is a better category than W to assess SP value though? I struggle with this. If we down shifted the QS requirements from 6 IP, 3 ER or better, to 5 IP, 2 ER, I think I'd support that over Wins, at this point.

I saw a graph showing the percentage of Wins going to starters vs relievers going down year over year for like 20 years. Kinda changed my thinking on the long-term viability of Wins as a category.

Yeah, QS aren't much better as they are. Sharky's idea may be a less popular alternative, but I like the idea of adding IP. It would hurt reliever values, though.

[Gregg]

I know there are lots of examples of this, but the one I'm struck by this season for my team so far is Kutter Crawford. He has a 0.42 era, giving up 1 run over 4 starts, including today. He has zero wins.

As a $16A Kutter Crawford owner in my 5x5 AL only I feel your pain. I chalk it up as part of the game. Just like in my NL league Acuna $54B has no home runs.

[madducks]

As a $16A Kutter Crawford owner in my 5x5 AL only I feel your pain. I chalk it up as part of the game. Just like in my NL league Acuna $54B has no home runs.

In my local league, I drafted Julio Rodriguez, Wyatt Langford, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Spencer Torkelson, and Josh lowe. And so far these five players have combined for zero home runs for me. And then I added Colt Keith, who has matched their total.

[Todd Zola]

Yeah, QS aren't much better as they are. Sharky's idea may be a less popular alternative, but I like the idea of adding IP. It would hurt reliever values, though.

Slightly ding, not really hurt - and I consider this more of a feature than bug.

Using last season's stats for a Mixed 15 5x5, the first list is those in the top 135 with standard scoring but not IP, with the second list those taking their place:

IN standard 5x5
JP Sears
Domingo German
Tom Cosgrove
Jose Alvarado
Lucas Giolito
Adam Ottavino
Johan Oviedo
Tyler Rogers
Phil Maton

IN IP
Julio Urias
Andrew Nardi
Brayan Bello
Andres Munoz
J.P. France
Kyle Gibson
Kirby Yates
Lucas Sims
Ian Gibaut

Here are the aggregate earnings for all relievers with at least 10 saves in the positive pools

Wins $246.2
IP $233.6

At least 10 holds

Wins $118.5
IP $100.6

At least 10 saves + Holds

WIns $353.2
IP $324.3

There were only three relievers with fewer than 10 "SOLDS".

Wins $10.0
IP $10.60

All relievers

Wins $354.2
IP $328.4

Difference =$25.8

For me, the feature is this almost $26 gets added to starters who threw more innings, but were shorted wins, for whatever reason.

Biggest gainers with IP

Sandy Alcantara
Sonny Gray
Logan Webb
Corbin Burnes
Yennier Cano
Cristopher Sanchez
Jordan Montgomery
Kyle Hendricks
Alex Cobb
Michael King

Biggest losers with IP

Colin Poche
Spencer Strider
Kevin Ginkel
Michael Wacha
Matt Brash
Andrew Nardi
Alexis Diaz
Devin Williams
Tanner Scott
Felix Bautista
A.J. Puk
Clayton Kershaw
Justin Steele

[Sour Masher]

Great breakdown Todd. Thank you for sharing it. Why I am attracted to it is I like when fantasy tracks with real life player values. It is why I like points leagues, which can, with the right allocations, be more intuitive in terms of player values than roto (an early turn off from roto was seeing Juan Pierre on par with Barry Bonds one year, long ago). Seeing that adding IP doesn't radically change values and boosts those pitchers that are real life anchors that save their team's bullpens just makes sense. Changes to scoring that are intuitive and line up with fans perceptions of values are good changes to me. And yeah, in real baseball all relievers are less value than in roto, so dinging them a bit is a feature, not a bug, I agree.

[DMT]

I realize it's not the most logical category, but this is a fantasy we're all playing and Wins plus QS (WQS) actually works better IMO than either category by itself. The drawbacks of each kind of cancel each other out. I convinced our league to switch about 4-5 years ago and not a single person has asked to switch back.

[Sour Masher]

I realize it's not the most logical category, but this is a fantasy we're all playing and Wins plus QS (WQS) actually works better IMO than either category by itself. The drawbacks of each kind of cancel each other out. I convinced our league to switch about 4-5 years ago and not a single person has asked to switch back.

That would be interesting to look at. In the sample of one for Kutter Crawford in his first four games, it is interesting to note that he only have one quality starter, despite his 0.42 era, because he only went 5 IP on average in three of his starts. That isn't a data point that means anything, of course, but poor Kutter would still be doing poorly in a combined cat so far this year.