Taking Manoah to Upgrade

[Sour Masher]

The Manoah owner has him on a guaranteed contract, given when he was good. He is $20 and locked in for 3 more years after this year, or he can be bought out for $40 (full price 1st year, half price each additional year). We have 4 IL spots and 10 bench spots, so having him on my roster isn't so bad this year. It would hurt to eat the $40 next year, though. What I get if I take him is Spencer Torkelson $15 (guaranteed two more years), Jack Suwinski $5, and Jhoan Duran $5 (both due extension after this year). I'd be giving back these four in the deal--Josh Bell, Alek Thomas, Aroldis Chapman, and Martin Perez (I want to hold him until his two start week, but don't mind giving him after that, because it is hard to trust his current performance is real). I see buy lows in my return, but I'm not sure they are enough to have Manoah on my roster all year and then have to pay $40 to buy him out (unless, by some miracle, he looks good enough to keep by the end of the year).

What does the pen think. Should I make the move, or wait and upgrade by trading prospects down the line. For me, it comes down to how good the guys I'm getting are. I have Nate Lowe coming back at 1b soon, and also have Jeimer Candelerio elg there, so is Tork a big upgrade over them? Is Suwinski going to end up improving on last year or regressing? Can Duran stay healthy?

[The Feral Slasher]

The Manoah owner has him on a guaranteed contract, given when he was good. He is $20 and locked in for 3 more years after this year, or he can be bought out for $40 (full price 1st year, half price each additional year). We have 4 IL spots and 10 bench spots, so having him on my roster isn't so bad this year. It would hurt to eat the $40 next year, though. What I get if I take him is Spencer Torkelson $15 (guaranteed two more years), Jack Suwinski $5, and Jhoan Duran $5 (both due extension after this year). I'd be giving back these four in the deal--Josh Bell, Alek Thomas, Aroldis Chapman, and Martin Perez (I want to hold him until his two start week, but don't mind giving him after that, because it is hard to trust his current performance is real). I see buy lows in my return, but I'm not sure they are enough to have Manoah on my roster all year and then have to pay $40 to buy him out (unless, by some miracle, he looks good enough to keep by the end of the year).

What does the pen think. Should I make the move, or wait and upgrade by trading prospects down the line. For me, it comes down to how good the guys I'm getting are. I have Nate Lowe coming back at 1b soon, and also have Jeimer Candelerio elg there, so is Tork a big upgrade over them? Is Suwinski going to end up improving on last year or regressing? Can Duran stay healthy?

I don't know your league as well as you do, but don't see anything that would make it worthwhile to take on Mahoah's contract. Tork and Suwinski are not great, and Duran is a reliever. I'd pass.

[Sour Masher]

I don't know your league as well as you do, but don't see anything that would make it worthwhile to take on Mahoah's contract. Tork and Suwinski are not great, and Duran is a reliever. I'd pass.

Yeah, I keep looking at Tork, wanting him to be better than he has ever proven to be. I guess it is a hold over from him being such a highly touted prospect when he was drafted.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yeah, I keep looking at Tork, wanting him to be better than he has ever proven to be. I guess it is a hold over from him being such a highly touted prospect when he was drafted.

I have Tork in a couple leagues, and I'd move him pretty cheap at this point...I would not give up much for him

[madducks]

I wouldn't do the deal either unless you are desperate for home runs. Even though I think Torkelson has 40 HR potential further down the road, he basically looks one-dimensional right now. Chapman could end up closing for somebody by the end of the year.

[revo]

Need a lot more info (budget, # of teams, roster spots, etc) to make an appropriate call.

[Sour Masher]

Need a lot more info (budget, # of teams, roster spots, etc) to make an appropriate call.

14 teams, $400 budget, 30 major league roster spots, 4 IL spots, and 20 minor league roster spots.

[revo]

Given that $40 isn't terrible for a $400 cap (and not the typical $260 cap I'm sure many here were thinking), I *might* consider this. BUT it would depend on how much of a value Torkelson & Duran are compared to similar players in your league. If Torkelson is fairly valued and Duran is slightly undervalued, then no.

I think in order to take on $40 of dead money you'd need to get back at least $30 in projected value over their contract for it to make sense.

[Sour Masher]

Given that $40 isn't terrible for a $400 cap (and not the typical $260 cap I'm sure many here were thinking), I *might* consider this. BUT it would depend on how much of a value Torkelson & Duran are compared to similar players in your league. If Torkelson is fairly valued and Duran is slightly undervalued, then no.

I think in order to take on $40 of dead money you'd need to get back at least $30 in projected value over their contract for it to make sense.

Yeah, I was thinking along similar lines, but was left uncertain if Torkelson, Duran, and Suwinski did that. Tork is off to a slow start, but is streaky and I don't have a clear sense of where his numbers end up. Same with Suwinski. I generally don't like to extend closers, but Duran doesn't have a lot of long term value for me. He'd be $5 next year if I don't extend, though. As for Tork, he may have gone for more just based on pedigree, but I got Nate Lowe for $6 in this year's auction, Yandy went for $19....just based on his production to date, I'd say he is a decent value, but not a big one, unless he takes another step, which I think he can, but I'm not sure.

[The Feral Slasher]

Given that $40 isn't terrible for a $400 cap (and not the typical $260 cap I'm sure many here were thinking), I *might* consider this. BUT it would depend on how much of a value Torkelson & Duran are compared to similar players in your league. If Torkelson is fairly valued and Duran is slightly undervalued, then no.

I think in order to take on $40 of dead money you'd need to get back at least $30 in projected value over their contract for it to make sense.

so i don't have all the exact settings, but below are what I saw on the fangraphs calculator

Suwinski - 8 (5 salary)
Duran - 24 (5 salary)
tork - 21 (15 salary)
Manoah - negative 10 (20 salary)

for

Bell - 9
A Thomas - 5
Chapman - 8
M Perez - negative 20


For this year, you would be giving up 22 dollars of value (assuming you'd drop Perez) for 53 dollars of value (assuming Manoah is on the bench and does not return to form from a few years ago). Lowe projects for 14, so tork is possibly a slight upgrade, but possibly not, I'd say it is a tossup as to who is better. Anyway, from my perspective it is really about if you want to be on the hook for Manoah for 3 years (or maybe he regains form?) in order to acquire Duran. Or if you think Tork is going to be a lot better than Lowe that would be another reason to do the deal. Overall, I don't think it is worth the risk, you aren't getting enough value to take on Manoah unless you really need saves or love Tork.

[Sour Masher]

Great breakdown FS--thanks. Yeah, I should stand pat. I guess I was blinded by the idea Tork could take a big step up, but he hasn't shown any reason to believe he will.

[Sour Masher]

I'm now being offerred Brady Singer, Suwinski, and Torkelson for Orelvis Martinez and Rob Snelling from the same owner. Singer, like Manoah, is on a four year $20 deal that scares the hell out of me, but at least he is pitching and pitching well at the moment. Being a UF grad, I've always rooted for Singer, but he has teased before only to fall off. Anyone think he has turned a corner, or is he too risky to take on?

Singer's contract and my love of Martinez are holding me back, but this owner is the only one willing to deal majors for minors right now and while I'm not getting huge upgrades, I'm tempted, if I can convince myself Singer won't turn into total trash eventually this year.

[revo]

Meh, agreed, would NOT want Singer on a 4-year deal. I don't have a problem dealing the MLers, but both have been lights out and you're just not getting enough value (but plenty of risk) in return.

[Sour Masher]

Meh, agreed, would NOT want Singer on a 4-year deal. I don't have a problem dealing the MLers, but both have been lights out and you're just not getting enough value (but plenty of risk) in return.

I ended up dealing Josh Bell, Alek Thomas, Martinez, and Snelling for Tork, Suwinski, Marco Luciano, and Cade Povich. Maybe not huge upgrades in the majors, but not huge downgrades in the minors, I think.

[Teenwolf]

I like the deal you landed on. Two slight major league upgrades (with much higher ceilings), while Orelvis seems to have the highest upside, the prospect exchange is totally fine for the upgrades you got. Especially with Povich ready to graduate very soon.