2K13: Anthony Rizzo

[pjs24]

I don't, based on what he already did last season after being called up.

We probably should unless you wanna bet on the 1-2% projection. He's a beast and I really like him overall, but I think he'll be overrated like Hosmer, Jennings, and Lawrie were last year.

[pjs24]

Not even close. A massive breakout for this kid would be 35+ HRs and a .320 BA. I'm not saying that's what I expect, I'm just saying that the sky's the limit for this kid.

Word.

At any rate, I obviously think he's being massively overrated at this point. He is brimming with potential, though more for his career than 2013.

[onejayhawk]

We probably should unless you wanna bet on the 1-2% projection. He's a beast and I really like him overall, but I think he'll be overrated like Hosmer, Jennings, and Lawrie were last year.

I credit Rizzo with a full season in 2012 He was ready from camp. The club waited past his Super 2 date.

What I would hope for is a big jump in BA. As noted, he does not have the big FB rated,but he has a nice compact stroke and a great hitter's backdrop.

J

[pjs24]

I credit Rizzo with a full season in 2012 He was ready from camp. The club waited past his Super 2 date.

What I would hope for is a big jump in BA. As noted, he does not have the big FB rated,but he has a nice compact stroke and a great hitter's backdrop.

J

He played 87 games. That isn't a full season. There is a huge difference between 87 games and 147. The low end of a full season is 502 PA.

Meanwhile, he'll need to improve vs. LHP a good bit to bring his BA up (.318 RHP/.208 LHP).

[pjs24]

Not even close. A massive breakout for this kid would be 35+ HRs and a .320 BA. I'm not saying that's what I expect, I'm just saying that the sky's the limit for this kid.

I still think the fan proj. is a pretty huge breakout. Just 14 players have hit those thresholds in the expansion era while only Albert & Vlad have done .320/35 at 23.

[popeye]

I still think the fan proj. is a pretty huge breakout. Just 14 players have hit those thresholds in the expansion era while only Albert & Vlad have done .320/35 at 23.

So you think that a projection of: 28 HR, 104 RBI, 87 Runs, 5 SB, .284 BA is a huge breakout, considering that last season, in only 337AB he hit 15HR, 48 RBI, 44R, 3 SB, .285?

[pjs24]

So you think that a projection of: 28 HR, 104 RBI, 87 Runs, 5 SB, .284 BA is a huge breakout, considering that last season, in only 337AB he hit 15HR, 48 RBI, 44R, 3 SB, .285?

Yes. A full season of dominating at 23 is a very big deal.

[popeye]

Yes. A full season of dominating at 23 is a very big deal.

I agree that it's a big deal. But based on last season, I don't see it as a "huge breakout". I guess we disagree on what that means.

[onejayhawk]

He played 87 games. That isn't a full season. There is a huge difference between 87 games and 147. The low end of a full season is 502 PA.

Meanwhile, he'll need to improve vs. LHP a good bit to bring his BA up (.318 RHP/.208 LHP).

There is a difference, but it is largely artificial. Rizzo did his part, but he was held back in spite of his production. It was almost expressly a Super 2 issue.

You can use the MLE from Iowa, or you can extend his 87 games to 145 or whatever. one way or the other, he deserves credit for a full MLB season in any analysis.

J

[pjs24]

There is a difference, but it is largely artificial. Rizzo did his part, but he was held back in spite of his production. It was almost expressly a Super 2 issue.

You can use the MLE from Iowa, or you can extend his 87 games to 145 or whatever. one way or the other, he deserves credit for a full MLB season in any analysis.

J

Artificial how? The grind of a full season, an actual full season, isn't an artificial difference from a half season. There is the obvious fatigue factor as well as the league getting to know you more. I think it's been proven a countless number of times that a full season is far different from a half season.

He does not deserve a full MLB season in ANY analysis primarily because he didn't play a full MLB season. No matter how it's rationalized, he didn't play a full season and doing so in 2013 will be a big challenge that we've yet to see him overcome.

[BigJonEmpire]

There is a difference, but it is largely artificial. Rizzo did his part, but he was held back in spite of his production. It was almost expressly a Super 2 issue.

You can use the MLE from Iowa, or you can extend his 87 games to 145 or whatever. one way or the other, he deserves credit for a full MLB season in any analysis.

J

Half a season is not an entire season under any circumstances. It means even more when the player in question is so early in his development. How many young players have we seen have a great half season and then fall off a cliff? I like the kid more than I used to based on more recent reports but without an actual full season he can not get credit for one.