2K13: Anthony Rizzo

[revo]

A year after he was promoted to the majors and fell flat, Rizzo was traded to the Cubbies and finally got his chance once they realized Matt LaHair was not the answer. This time though he got it going, hitting .285 with 44 R, 15 HR & 48 RBI in 337 ABs. Now that we know he can hit MLB pitching, what can we expect from Rizzo in 2K13?

Clearly he'll be the everyday 1B in Chicago, so based on his 337 ABs in 87 games, that extrapolates to nearly 600 ABs over 155 games or so (let's give the guy a week off). Let's call it that he'll get 575 ABs. Extrapolating his 2k12 stats, that projects to 25 HRs, 75 R, 82 RBI for 2k13. Those numbers seem about right for me.

575 ABs
75 R
25 HR
82 RBI
5 SB
.280 BA

[pjs24]

*cough* Eric Hosmer *cough*

Simply extrapolating is extremely dangerous. Hosmer & Lawrie are the most recent cases of a long line. Growth isn't linear with youngsters. I'd take the under on the 23-year old future stud.

[revo]

*cough* Eric Hosmer *cough*

Simply extrapolating is extremely dangerous. Hosmer & Lawrie are the most recent cases of a long line. Growth isn't linear with youngsters. I'd take the under on the 23-year old future stud.

Just posted his now.

Hosmer had too large an AB total in his rookie year to extrapolate any stats, and besides his BA plunge, he stayed pretty similar to what he did in 2k12 (except everything ticked lower). As far as Rizzo, extrapolating gives a good baseline for what he may be able to do - -especially when it comes to Runs Scored and RBIs, of which we really have no other way to project. When I extrapolated Rizzo's stats, it seemed almost spot on with what I would have projected for him anyway.

[pjs24]

Just posted his now.

Hosmer had too large an AB total in his rookie year to extrapolate any stats, and besides his BA plunge, he stayed pretty similar to what he did in 2k12 (except everything ticked lower). As far as Rizzo, extrapolating gives a good baseline for what he may be able to do - -especially when it comes to Runs Scored and RBIs, of which we really have no other way to project. When I extrapolated Rizzo's stats, it seemed almost spot on with what I would have projected for him anyway.

I think it'd be wiser to take his 162 average from BRef and tack on some AVG.

He was undoubtedly smacking the piss outta the ball, but his 18% HR/FB is not guaranteed to stick. I think your projection is the high side. I like him, but I'm treading cautiously after losing my way on a few youngsters last year and being snapped back to reality (oh, there goes gravity).

[Gregg]

I think he is closer to .290 and 27-30 hr.

He now "gets it" and will get better.

[willthethrill]

A year after he was promoted to the majors and fell flat, Rizzo was traded to the Cubbies and finally got his chance once they realized Matt LaHair was not the answer.

Brian LaHair. Jeez, he was an all star after all. No respect at all.

[TS Garp]

I'm projecting .275, 28 hr, 85 rbi, 80 runs with some serious hot and cold streaks along the way.

[revo]

Brian LaHair. Jeez, he was an all star after all. No respect at all.

Right, Brain LaHair. I was confusing him with Matt LeBlanc.

[onejayhawk]

Brian LaHair. Jeez, he was an all star after all. No respect at all.

A real $35 stud. Or was it $3.50?

J

[Gregg]

A real $35 stud. Or was it $3.50?

J

The Cubs abused and missused LaHair. Then they messed up again when they should have traded him while he as an All Star.

[revo]

there's already a 2K13 on Rizzo, I'll merge them.

[DJBeasties]

He ain't no damn Paul Goldschmidt, that's for sure.

Bill James projections: 33 HR, 109 RBI, 86 Runs, 7 SB, .285 BA

Fangraphs fan projections: 28 HR, 104 RBI, 87 Runs, 5 SB, .284 BA

DJ Beasties projections: not as good as Garrett Jones

Paul Sporer projections: 18 HR, 78 RBI, .260 BA


I'm on board with the Fangraphs projections but could easily see a massive breakout for this kid. The batting average sure seems sustainable to me and I think that this kid has a significant amount of power that he may unleash in 2k13. His BB% and K% were both very manageable and there's very little reason, in my view, to suspect that he's in line for regression. He was a line drive machine last year, putting up an incredibly impressive 24.4% LD rate. Like most good hitters he feasted on fastballs and had a little more trouble with the slow stuff.

Keeper league folks, be glad that you have this rising star on your squad.

LOL pretty funny

[pjs24]

He ain't no damn Paul Goldschmidt, that's for sure.

Bill James projections: 33 HR, 109 RBI, 86 Runs, 7 SB, .285 BA

Fangraphs fan projections: 28 HR, 104 RBI, 87 Runs, 5 SB, .284 BA

DJ Beasties projections: not as good as Garrett Jones

Paul Sporer projections: 18 HR, 78 RBI, .260 BA


I'm on board with the Fangraphs projections but could easily see a massive breakout for this kid. The batting average sure seems sustainable to me and I think that this kid has a significant amount of power that he may unleash in 2k13. His BB% and K% were both very manageable and there's very little reason, in my view, to suspect that he's in line for regression. He was a line drive machine last year, putting up an incredibly impressive 24.4% LD rate. Like most good hitters he feasted on fastballs and had a little more trouble with the slow stuff.

Keeper league folks, be glad that you have this rising star on your squad.

You don't think the FG fan projection is a massive breakout for a can't-hit-lefties 23-year old playing his first full season?

[DJBeasties]

He did have a nice LD rate but he also hit 45% groundballs and just 30% flyballs. I think it will be hard to hit 30 home runs with that kind of distribution. He hit a ton of flyballs in Iowa and more line drives in Chicago. His BB/K ratios were below average but not terrible. His HR/F seems high and we have yet to see it established.

I like this kid but in a vacuum, for one year, how do you know what you are getting? I don't think Garrett Jones is better than him but when I factor in track record, the peripherals and the uneven development of young players, it's hard for me to say leaps and bounds, yes!

He's a lottery ticket that is a lot more tantalizing than a boring old Garrett Jones but I'd be willing to bet Jones gives us around what we would expect while Rizzo is boom or bust until proven otherwise. This is why I don't think they are two-tiers apart.

[popeye]

You don't think the FG fan projection is a massive breakout for a can't-hit-lefties 23-year old playing his first full season?

I don't, based on what he already did last season after being called up.